what could Kipsang run for a mile? (or 1500)

What if Kipsang raced Asbel Kiprop over 5000m? That would be like the Farah/Bolt 600m showdown.

Maybe 3:58 wasn't as fast as Tergat could go, but he sure couldn't have gone 3:48 and he was likely MUCH faster than Kipsang.

jsis wrote:No he wouldn't have. These "lines of fit" or whatever that people on here (e.g. ventolin) use just don't work. I mean, how come Bernard Lagat didn't run 7:1x for 3000, given his stunning abilities in the mile and relative lack of distinction at 800 meters? How many guys on here are very good at 5000 and 10000 but just can't hit a fast mile because they can't run a fast quarter?

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

bernie did have theoretical 7'23 ability when he ran 3'26

his prelim line of fit has always been tricky to figure

now, noah almost certainly had intrinsic high-1'41 ability to run the 1kwr ( off a suicidal 49.8 & with the fatigue of a 3'29.1 win less than 2/7 before ) - shouda been more like high-2'10 if rested & ideally paced

more i've thought about it over the years, the more i believe bernie had a speed/endurance profile more resembling noah than hicham, meaning i reckon bernie's 800 at the time coudn't have been all that far off noah's

so, a prelim line of fit for bernie in his 3'26 shape is

47.0 / 1'42.3 ->

2'11.3

3'26.0

4'43.2

7'23.0

12'56.6

27'36.8

his 3k at the time was ~ 7'30+ but he simply admitted he trained for 1500 & that 3k he ran was "the hardest race of his life"

3k in '01 was simply just too far a distance for him off his "pure" 1500 training

paperclips wrote:Maybe 3:58 wasn't as fast as Tergat could go, but he sure couldn't have gone 3:48 and he was likely MUCH faster than Kipsang.

tergat's 27'27 wr was off some poor -ve splits of 13'18/13'09

pretty sure he wouda gone much closet to 26'20 if he'd run evenly

his 12'49 just before was another misjudgement

he followed komen/geb who were going at break-neck pace ( close to 12'40 ) & he got "broken" around 4k

he probably shouda gone closer to 12'45 if he had backed off & followed a slower pace

his prelim lines of fit were

53.5 / 1'51.3 ->

3'36.0

3'52.7

7'28.2

12'46.7

26'27.2

to

53.5 / 1'51.2 ->

3'35.7

3'52.3

7'27.1

12'444.4

26'21.3

imo, i reckon kipsang woudn't be that far off these currently

paperclips wrote:

Maybe 3:58 wasn't as fast as Tergat could go, but he sure couldn't have gone 3:48 and he was likely MUCH faster than Kipsang.

Tergat once ran 20x400 in 55-56 3.48 would have been within his capability in the right race.

jono wrote:

paperclips wrote:

Maybe 3:58 wasn't as fast as Tergat could go, but he sure couldn't have gone 3:48 and he was likely MUCH faster than Kipsang.

Tergat once ran 20x400 in 55-56 3.48 would have been within his capability in the right race.

I agree with the notion that Tergat could run much faster than 3:58. It's difficult for me to accept that guys with low 26 10k ability can't run a sub 3:50 mile. The WR is 3:43.x, so a 3:49 is still a ways off.

They would not run their best mile during the period in which they are in peak 10k shape, but with the proper speed work...they would run mile times with some of the best milers. After all, when if you can run six 4:15 miles nonstop, you are an aerobic monster. And mile performance does in part depend on great aerobic ability.

jono wrote:

Tergat once ran 20x400 in 55-56 3.48 would have been within his capability in the right race.

have to agreethe calculator gives him no better than 53.5 at his peak so helluva lotta repeats in 55/56 don't sound feasible & i've some "evidence" for that :http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=2

those kinda repeats sound like those off a well-below 3'30 guy, but there are coaches here who can interpret them better ( iirc jim ryun used to do something like those reps )

that is heresay wrote:

jono wrote:

Tergat once ran 20x400 in 55-56 3.48 would have been within his capability in the right race.

No, it's not hearsay. Here is a post from a few years back

Brit runner wrote:

The session was in Athletics Weekly a few years ago when they did a feature with Paul Tergat and said the following "Tergat points to one particular session he does with pride -20*400 averaging 55-56 seconds with only a minute or so of recovery" I was so impressed when I read this that is why I have remembered it so well. The article also said that Tergat will usually have another athlete to pace him for the first 300m or so of each rep. When he is done with this session he usually can barely stand up or see straight....