doing some quick excel analysis of the wiki data, the 2:00:00 barrier will be broken sometime around 2040. This is using linear regression of the WRs from 1967 on and a logarithmic regression (chosen for best R^2=.967, I am no statistician) of all of the data gets almost exactly the same result. Personally, I would think that the barrier will be hit some years after that, maybe late 2050s.
2003: Paul Tergat 2:04:55. 2013: Wilson Kipsang 2:03:23. WR improving ~10s per year.
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Bad Wigins wrote:
It won't slow down. Kipchoge has gone from 2:05:30 to about 2:04 flat in his first 2 marathons. He will be the first to break 2:03. I was hasty to predict it today, but it will happen.
It was the track stars Tergat and Geb who raised the bar before, it will be Kipchoge and Bekele who raise it next.
Agree Kipchoge is going to be a ridiculous force. (Already is after that sick 2:04:05.) -
Mrr82 wrote:
The world record in 2003 was 2:05:38, why would you use tergats record as the starting point? It's come down 135 seconds in the last 10 years.
The world record on THIS DATE in 2003 was 2:04:55, because Paul Tergat ran it in THIS RACE that year.
That is OBVIOUSLY the relevant mark for a 10-year comparison. Khalid's 2:05:38 was from 2002, obviously.
Come on, man. You are usually better than this. -
wineturtle wrote:
The WR has been lowered 23 minutes and 19 seconds in my lifetime.
Making you 78?
Keep running and posting, good sir! -
rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
Mrr82 wrote:
The world record in 2003 was 2:05:38, why would you use tergats record as the starting point? It's come down 135 seconds in the last 10 years.
The world record on THIS DATE in 2003 was 2:04:55, because Paul Tergat ran it in THIS RACE that year.
That is OBVIOUSLY the relevant mark for a 10-year comparison. Khalid's 2:05:38 was from 2002, obviously.
Come on, man. You are usually better than this.
Oh and 10 years and 1 day makes your math right? Please. Go away saladretard -
LR post controls:
OK
you are a retard. everyone hates you, etc.
Not OK.
There is an unusual number of people running extremely fast Marathon times. No slander of individuals.
Strange rules. -
Wronggggggg wrote:
rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
Mrr82 wrote:
The world record in 2003 was 2:05:38, why would you use tergats record as the starting point? It's come down 135 seconds in the last 10 years.
The world record on THIS DATE in 2003 was 2:04:55, because Paul Tergat ran it in THIS RACE that year.
That is OBVIOUSLY the relevant mark for a 10-year comparison. Khalid's 2:05:38 was from 2002, obviously.
Come on, man. You are usually better than this.
Oh and 10 years and 1 day makes your math right? Please. Go away saladretard
Wow, you're dumb!
Keep up the good work, rcs. -
ioncd wrote:
There's a difference between track speed and a track PR.
Sure, but we don't really know about track speed for most top marathoners.
The suggestion that I was responding to was that great track runners are the people that will push the marathon record down.
All I'm saying is that the evidence doesn't really support that. If you look at the top places on the all-time list for the mens' marathon Haile is the only one who was real star on the track. Most of them are marathon specialists who have never had a noteworthy track career.
It might be that some of those guys could do well on the track if they chose to, quite probably many of them could, but that doesn't show that you *need* to be a track star to do well at the marathon. -
2:04:55 in Berlin 2003 (September 28)
2:03:23 in Berlin 2013 (September 29)
2:04:55 - 2:03:23 = 92 seconds
2013 - 2003 = 10 years
92 seconds / 10 years = 9.2 seconds per year
Two world records, set in the same race on almost exactly the same date 10 years ago.
To put it more simply: What is the world record today? What was the world record 10 years ago today? What is the difference between those two?
