What can Defar run for 1500 right now?

This is a very interesting question.

Especially with Jenny Simpson stepping up to the 5k and getting beaten pretty bad by Defar, does anyone think if Defar stepped down to the 15, she would still beat Jenny. Jenny has proved year in and year out to be one of the worlds best 1500 meter runners. Defar has done the same for the 5k.

That being said, I think Defar would do better in the 15 than Jenny did in the 5k. However, if either decided to work on either their speed (Defar) or distance (Jenny) it would be very interesting to see the results.

just sayin wrote:

i dunno ventolin where you get all these ideas

one thing i do know

anyone 3-55 or below has been doped

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_1500ok.htm

I agree. I think 3:55 is doable, and I'm not going to say 3:54 isn't. But it hasn't been run in accordance with the rules to this point.

ya i went down the list before

and you'll never guess who may be the real world record holder

at 1500m

SFH no less!! assuming she's clean

67 and change+58 and more change for 2:06 for the last 800m.

there is nothing that points at 14:10 shape. This your erroneous assumption. I saw her 8:30 win at Stockholm with

2:50, 2:57, and 2:43 splits. Probably worth 8:22 or so.

No way near 8:10.9.

they said she came thru in 12:28 with two to go????

Defar! wrote:Her PB is 4:02 which she ran in the middle of 2010.

when her 5k sb was 14'38

just sayin wrote:defar would crush aregawi lol..........

not too bright i see

i see you can't comprehend basic arithmetic :

the comparator being mo

3'50.4 * ( 3'28.8/3'26.0 ) = ??????

you got lucky with that 3-28 ventolin and you benn living off it since

nothing lucky about it

if an athlete runs a near perfect race in top shape they can approach their estimates, certainly under-distance

Jeff Wigand wrote:3:26 is achievable by someone like Kiprop. There will be more like him.

No woman is running 3:50. That's about four seconds quicker than what you can consider realistic.

learn to read

i never said anything about 3'50 for defar

i said 3'53 is possible

as for the actual 3'50wr iaaf don't rate it particularly highly

iaaf tables has 3'25.98 as 1303 points

for women 1303 points is 3'48.16

they equate 3'50.46 to 3'27.29

4 men have run faster than this ( including 3'43 converted )

alanson wrote:Mary Slaney had a comparable 3k. Slaney's best 1500 was 3:57.12. Do you think Defar has a lot more speed at 800/1500 than Slaney? I'd like to see Slaney/Defar side by side in your model.

she is one easily analyazable athlete as she ran nearly all her pbs in same year of '85

( except 3'57.24 in '85 but 3'57.12pb in '83 - however no one doubts she was in shape of her life in '85 )

1'56.9/3'57.2/4'16.7/8'25.8

her lines of fit for '85 are ~

53.8 / 1'56.9 ->

3'55.0 !!

4'14.1

8'24.9

14'44.3

to

53.9 / 1'56.9 ->

3'54.7 !!!

4'13.7

8'23.5

14'41.0

( i'm sure her 8'25 couda claimed to have been a coupla secs faster for perfect pacing/etc )

quite honestly, she just had stupendous talent - 1'56 speed allied with 8'25 endurance

i do believe she significantly under-achieved at 1500 & if she had got fast enough pace to the bell, evenly, she shouda been looking at a 3'55 that year, perhaps even dipping into the 3'54s

lotta those races around that time were handicapped by pacers not being able to provide fast enough pace

( mary wouda needed 62.6, 2'05.4, 2'52.3 at bell - they still can't do that today, usually going 63 or 64 then 2'09 to 2'12 !!! )

she's very comparable to defar over 1500 ( maybe 1s+ shy )

yyy wrote:there is nothing that points at 14:10 shape

eh ???

she has been saying she's in great shape, but she woudn't speculate on a wr, which was never going to happen with dibaba in the race

you obviously have not watched these gals

This your erroneous assumption. I saw her 8:30 win at Stockholm with

2:50, 2:57, and 2:43 splits. Probably worth 8:22 or so.

No way near 8:10.9.

do some research

the pacer was asked to set 8'30 pace, so a time no more than a handful of secs quicker than that coud be achieved unless defar wanted to ignore them & run a solo 3k

as for potentially close to 8'10, i suggest you do some more research

she ran 8'58.58wr which with 1.08 conversion is

8'18.58

this again was a race with only the target of breaking 9'00, not nearer 8'50, & the pacing was set up for that

if/when she can get a pacer to take her thru in 4'05 & keep going at that pace for another 500m, you really have no clue about her limits at 3k...

I saw them live at Stockholm.

saying you're in great shape doesn't you can run 14:10

It is all imagination on your part. Dipping under 14:20

but not 14:10.

jeez !!!

i forgot about her 3'57.2 in '85

a 3'57.2, solo, leading every step of the way, off a suicidal 61.94, eased off to 800 ( had to ) with 64.84 lap, reached bell in 2'55.24 & still had enough gas in the tank to kick a 62.00 last lap !!!

yes, with some even-paced wabbiting to the bell offering drafting/etc, i'm certain she couda gone 3'55 that day ( perhaps even the possible dip into 3'54s ) but she was an out & out front runner which handicapped her times ( get a pacer & take their help ) & this was also a grudge race v puica rather than just a TT

yyy wrote:I saw them live at Stockholm.

saying you're in great shape doesn't you can run 14:10

It is all imagination on your part. Dipping under 14:20

but not 14:10.

so ???

i've seen every sub-14'28 live on tv apart from shoby's 14'23 & seen every race under 14'30 apart from shoby's & bo's race

i can tell you she is much nearer 14'10 shape than 14'20

no imagining about it

Are they racing at Brussels? Then we might get a definite answer!!!!

just sayin wrote:

defar would crush aregawi lol..........

you got lucky with that 3-28 ventolin and you benn living off it since

By putting up different scenarios and times.

Face it 12.98 even uphill and 3:28 is suspect anyway! Most 12.9 runnners would struggle to break 4 for 1500m and even off 12.0 he should be too slow for sub 3:30. V3 claims training has not moved on in 30 years though so what has changed?

How is the Geb Wet WR going by the way although he did close well if lacking intelligence in that jog fest that even I was bored by!

ukathleticscoach wrote:Face it 12.98 even uphill and 3:28 is suspect anyway! Most 12.9 runnners would struggle to break 4 for 1500m and even off 12.0 he should be too slow for sub 3:30. V3 claims training has not moved on in 30 years though so what has changed

i suggest you do some basic arithmetic

50.89 for 400m is by simple proportion 12.72 for 100m

is this getting thru to you ???

ventolin^3 wrote:

no

i woudn't go by a tired effort after moscow

well rested & motivated she shoud be looking at 1'57

moron

everyone in that Stockholm race was tired after Moscow. None of them have run faster than 1:57 this year, rested and motivated or not. And they wooped Aregawi but good, as I knew they would.

The 800 and 1500 use energy systems in roughly opposite order. In a 1500 you can rely on mainly aerobic power then accelerate with a reserve of lactogenic energy. In a fast 800 there is too much acidosis to rely on anything but aerobic power at the end. This is why your "lines of fit" are such nonsense, it's not the same kind of fitness. You can train for both, but Aregawi's a specialist and doesn't have 800 meter fitness.

The 5000 and 1500 are likewise very different. Defar can cruise at 68+ efficiently on aerobic power, but since that's the fastest event she ever trains for, she'd need far more anaerobic power to cruise at 65 pace than a 1500 specialist does, and she'd suffer more acidosis at 1100 meters, and be nowhere near that "amazing" 58. She would have no chance of beating Aregawi, and would probably lose to Simpson too.

About that 58, if Defar's 400 PR is 54 or better, it's not that remarkable. You yourself claim Gebrhiwet and Farah can close within 4 seconds of their 400max. On the other hand, if her 400 PR is 55 or worse, she hasn't got the speed for a sub-2 and probably not a sub-4.

moron

do you even watch the races ???

she ran her 1'59.20pb in low key meet off a pacer who only provided 58.3, only kicked at 600 & crushed the field by 10m

if they had been able to get a pacer in a bigger meet to get her thru in 56+, & she kicked from the bell, she couda gone 1'57

that's the kinda time expected from her when rested/motivated

idiot

total drivel

according to this rubbish means you can't have 800/1500 runners

so were snell/ryun/coe/ovett/cram/asbel/baala/masterkova/holmes all figments of our imagination ???

how did ryun in his 1st serious 800 run 1'44wr off 1500 training ???

how did baala in his 1st elite field 800 run 1'43.1 off 1500 training ???

how did asbel in his 1st race v rudy run 1'43.1 off 1500 training ???

you are a total idiot

paula in her book says she ran a 4'01tt & the best she ran for 5k was 14'29 - her main distance along with 10k

elvan was a 5k runner in her prime & ran 14'24wr

in same season she ran 3'58 off it

what does your peabrain think other 5k specialists who can go 14'11/14'12 instead of 14'24 coud run for 1500 if elvan went 3'58 ???

who said it was ???

she's run low-57 finishes before

fool

elvan went 3'58 off 14'24

you don't think defar at 14'12 coudn't have broken 4'00 at the time ???

do you have any clue about the sport ???