I don't disagree with anything you have said. I believe most who have come to index/ETF investing since the financial crisis will sell in the next downturn. They will behave as investors in the past. The advantage of active management can be the reduction of risk and carrying of portfolio cash. If the active manager is merely mimicking the index or making oversized bets, the performance against passive would be worse. I was making a an assumption that investment fads usually don't pan out as expected, and I consider the outside move to index/ETFs to be one. Furthermore, institutional traders have used index/ETFs as trading vehicles possibly magnifying the upside in the market, and creating unknown risks in a downturn. Just an opinion here on timing and not a slam against index/ETF investing over a full market cycle.