A big crash is coming. It will be followed by another bull market and new record highs.
A big crash is coming. It will be followed by another bull market and new record highs.
The B wrote:
A big crash is coming. It will be followed by another bull market and new record highs.
Do you know what day the crash is starting? I'm a new investor and trying to only buy low and sell high.
New Igloi Disciple wrote:
agip wrote:the people who have done the best have bought the us stock market index, added regularly, never tried to be cute or clever, and never opened their statemetns.
How do they know that you opened your statement? I'm new to investing and trying pick the right stocks.
whuzzat?
Is it a good time to buy BRK-A?
New Igloi Disciple wrote:
The B wrote:A big crash is coming. It will be followed by another bull market and new record highs.
Do you know what day the crash is starting? I'm a new investor and trying to only buy low and sell high.
According to Igy it will be April 1, 2017. Given his record, you can safely bet that it WON'T happen then.
April 1, 2017 would be appropriate for those that find "value" in today's market.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/835619802114846721?p=vMaserati wrote:
Is it a good time to buy BRK-A?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Detector Dude falls in-line:
JPM's punchline:
"This apparent unwillingness by institutional investors to raise their equity exposures YTD reinforces the argument that it is retail rather than institutional investors that most likely drove this year’s strong inflows into equity ETFs and as a result this year’s equity rally."
So you no longer believe it is institutional trading driving the market?
No, institutional traders need someone to sell to. Buy, buy, buy.
Interesting. So the passive investors are taking advantage of the active investors.
No, newly created passive investors come into the market late, driven by low fees and hype. Both late comers and those who profess to be passive investors sell at the bottom.
And as you say, market goes up, market goes down.
You lose.
But it's the active investors who are buying now. That's what you quoted.
Sorry, the quote does not say that at all.
Besides it is not my quote.
Nice try.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sorry, the quote does not say that at all.
Besides it is not my quote.
Nice try.
You most certainly provided the quote and it definitely says individual (aka active) investors are doing the buying.
Oh sure, humm, ah ya.
About face wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Detector Dude falls in-line:
JPM's punchline:
"This apparent unwillingness by institutional investors to raise their equity exposures YTD reinforces the argument that it is retail rather than institutional investors that most likely drove this year’s strong inflows into equity ETFs and as a result this year’s equity rally."
So you no longer believe it is institutional trading driving the market?
Conveniently omitted is the baseline. It's difficult to raise one's equity exposure when one is already heavily invested.
Also the first part is present tense, the second part past tense, which makes perfect sense--they have already done their buying and were in part responsible for "having driven this year's strong inflows".
One thing about "financial writing": it's all complete b.s., designed to create an impression on which the speaker already knows how to trade. Don't believe anything in the professional literature.
Regarding BRK-A, that's what I'm worried about, it seems as though Buffett may be steering Berkshire into the direction it will assume upon his exit. Someone I know who has done very well on it told me recently that it is always a good time to buy, just that some times are "more good" than others. He has no incentive to offer me a self-interested opinion. I like their buyback policy, and the way the "markets" are going, it is the ultimate luxury equity. Just can't get over Buffett's age.
article in the WSJ pointed out today that the consensus return ests for the SP500 for 2017 have already been reached.
I don't know if that is bullish or bearish
It ain't bad.
Bullish! lol
I'm getting the feeling that I will exit this market before summer rolls around, which would be a very brief exposure for me. Summer brings instability, and who needs that schit. The 2nd half of March looms large where financials and fiscals are concerned.
Anybody here own any Bitcoin, or any other cryptos? (Yes Igy I know about its P/E, or lack thereof.) Things like cryptos don't require everyone to believe, just enough people to believe to make them work. And IMO there are enough of those people globally to take it from a temporary vehicle of convenience, to what will amount to a rotating escrow system.
I think I might buy a few.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? (Nope) After the inauguration? (Yup) Groundhog Day? (Nope)
Let's hear what you think.
Updated to adjusted for another record high.
The clock is now running on agip who needs a 10% correction by April 7 to avoid joining the loser's club.
The prediction pool:
Igy: January 9, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Big: January 13, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Econ: Feb 8, 2017 - ELIMINATED
agip: March 4, 2017
Ghost of 29: May 15, 2017
Maser: June 17, 2017
Mellon: December 31, 2018
Current data (as of 3/2/17):
Dow high...21,169.11
Prediction goal...19,052.19
Cut off number...20,534.03 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)