Everything I said was correct, and I stuck by it all, and I continue to stick by it all.
I still am not "in", even though I am thinking of putting the small 401k into US equities...and even at that, I have expressed my intention to sell in May and go away.
I have done very well on my euro concerns with what has happened in currencies. Very well.
Unlike you suggest, the DJIA was not "about to rise 17%" after I made that comment. In fact it went down, and it was months before it recovered to the level at which I made the comment.
I am still waiting for a larger down event, at which point I will buy in, as I have dry powder. I have the honesty to admit that I missed out on this rally, but I missed it only because I was focusing on other things. I am still even with the markets this year, but only just.
And as far as comparison to a "balanced portfolio" goes, I'm still ahead, significantly.
I stand by everything I said, and it has still been a good year, with a missed opportunity. As I recently commented, IMO buying US equities at these levels is more speculative than investative. I have outlined the reasons I have for believing that speculation may be worthwhile in the near term.
Thanks for posting that agip.