Everything I said was correct, and I stuck by it all, and I continue to stick by it all.
Maybe I'll repost 2 each day.
Here's our man Maserati on January 4, 2016 with the dow at 17,100, about to rise 17%Maserati wrote:
IMO in investing, there is significant merit to KISS.
I don't claim any genius or inside information in investing, but I have been able to avoid both the .com crash and the subprime crash. The .com was the same as when I got out this time, years with insane gains and some stocks that were skyrocketing. Too good to be true IMO, and I got out. Back then, like now, I got out maybe a bit "early", but in hindsight it looks brilliant.
The subprime, I got out "very early". Again, I missed out on some potential gains, but again I looked brilliant. I first got out of bonds when I got jittery talking to a banker, after having talked to a mortgage originator and a realtor/broker who were total morons and who knew absolutely nothing...that, and constantly receiving unsolicited mortgage offers for, no kidding, 8-10x as much as I had taken as a mortgage in 2000, along with all sorts of other credit solicitations. That's when I first talked to a local bigwig banker about the mortgage industry, and the credit industry more specifically, and really learned about margin. Honestly, that freaked my wife out, and we got out of US equities, too.
Nothing genius, just KISS. If it sounds too good to be true, it is.
The only question is how the markets will adjust, on what time-frame. Will they idle along for long enough that fundamentals and the economy catch up to the valuations, or will they crash and reset? I'm hoping for yet another crash and reset, then I can get back in...and then back out when the BS meter registers again.
Mark my words today: currencies will be the next horizon of insanity. I have already said that I don't trade FX, but I do hold cash in several currencies. Those who know what they are doing and are lucky will get rich on currencies in the next 5 years. As I said before, I look for control, and stability, because the 2 together give predictability, IMO a necessary precondition for business investment. Places like Switzerland are interesting in this respect. Also, the alternative of just completely packing it in and doing nothing/travelling becomes a viable option in a time of great turmoil and unpredictability, IMO.
Things have gone to hell in a handbasket in the USA, IMO. What needs to happen to right the ship, will not happen IMO. The USA might be an OK place to live, but it will not be the best place to make money, or to keep money.
No way would I touch the markets at these index levels.
I still am not "in", even though I am thinking of putting the small 401k into US equities...and even at that, I have expressed my intention to sell in May and go away.
I have done very well on my euro concerns with what has happened in currencies. Very well.
Unlike you suggest, the DJIA was not "about to rise 17%" after I made that comment. In fact it went down, and it was months before it recovered to the level at which I made the comment.
I am still waiting for a larger down event, at which point I will buy in, as I have dry powder. I have the honesty to admit that I missed out on this rally, but I missed it only because I was focusing on other things. I am still even with the markets this year, but only just.
And as far as comparison to a "balanced portfolio" goes, I'm still ahead, significantly.
I stand by everything I said, and it has still been a good year, with a missed opportunity. As I recently commented, IMO buying US equities at these levels is more speculative than investative. I have outlined the reasons I have for believing that speculation may be worthwhile in the near term.
Thanks for posting that agip.