The March 2000 S&P 500 peak was not reach again until October 2007. The March 2000 peak was not passed again in this cycle until March 2013. At the March 2009 bottom the S&P 500 level stood at the same index level as 13 years earlier.
Igy
There he goes talking to himself again.
Tis true wrote:mellon wrote:Sh*t. If the Dow is under 13,000 30 years from now I would say whoever called it was damn prescient and deserves lots of credit.Say wha? wrote:Sounds like somebody else who made a ridiculous (open ended date) prediction on here over 3 years ago. I'm sure he'll take credit for calling it if it happens 30 years from now.
Is he seriously trying to take credit for calling a plunge over 30 years after the fact?
If the Dow was at 15k at the time of the original comment and were to lose @ 13% of its value over the next 30 years then steering clear of investing in equities would be a damn good strategy.
I don't believe anyone who believes the market will move in only one direction. That's just stupid.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
So does he, just on the other side of the argument:
http://www.businessinsider.com...rip-2009-2
The question is who do you believe right now, today?
Igy
ðŸ’
I won't believe anyone who opines that stock valuations don't matter. That is just foolish.
C.P. Alert wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:I don't believe anyone who believes the market will move in only one direction. That's just stupid.
So does he, just on the other side of the argument:
http://www.businessinsider.com...rip-2009-2
The question is who do you believe right now, today?
Igy
ðŸ’
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/archive/lettr2002_04.pdf
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The March 2000 S&P 500 peak was not reach again until October 2007. The March 2000 peak was not passed again in this cycle until March 2013. At the March 2009 bottom the S&P 500 level stood at the same index level as 13 years earlier.
Igy
There's nothing unusual about that. Perhaps you do not realize that in the financial world "cash" includes bonds, CDs, etc. A 50/50 split is fine and actually recommended for some.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
We had a portfolio manager for one of the largest mutual fund companies in the office yesterday. A question was asked how he was personally positioned, he had 50% in cash.
Igy
So if you knew the Dow would be 13,000 in 30 years you would continue to drop money into it?
mellon wrote:Tis true wrote:There he goes talking to himself again.mellon wrote:Sh*t. If the Dow is under 13,000 30 years from now I would say whoever called it was damn prescient and deserves lots of credit.Say wha? wrote:Sounds like somebody else who made a ridiculous (open ended date) prediction on here over 3 years ago. I'm sure he'll take credit for calling it if it happens 30 years from now.
Is he seriously trying to take credit for calling a plunge over 30 years after the fact?
If the Dow was at 15k at the time of the original comment and were to lose @ 13% of its value over the next 30 years then steering clear of investing in equities would be a damn good strategy.
Wall Street Wookie wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:There's nothing unusual about that. Perhaps you do not realize that in the financial world "cash" includes bonds, CDs, etc. A 50/50 split is fine and actually recommended for some.
We had a portfolio manager for one of the largest mutual fund companies in the office yesterday. A question was asked how he was personally positioned, he had 50% in cash.
Igy
http://www.investorguide.com/a...ments-igu/
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wrong, cash does not include bonds and CDs. Go back to studying Wall Street rookie.
IgyWall Street Wookie wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:There's nothing unusual about that. Perhaps you do not realize that in the financial world "cash" includes bonds, CDs, etc. A 50/50 split is fine and actually recommended for some.
We had a portfolio manager for one of the largest mutual fund companies in the office yesterday. A question was asked how he was personally positioned, he had 50% in cash.
Igy
coach d,
coach d wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:https://www.hussmanfunds.com/archive/lettr2002_04.pdf
The March 2000 S&P 500 peak was not reach again until October 2007. The March 2000 peak was not passed again in this cycle until March 2013. At the March 2009 bottom the S&P 500 level stood at the same index level as 13 years earlier.
Igy
So Hussman missed not 1, but both, of the last 2 major bottoms. You don't get to sell at the top if you don't buy at the bottom, because you own nothing to sell. And bottoms are much easier to time with technical tools, because the fear impulse is greater than the greed impulse. An "expert" can perhaps be excused by missing 2 consecutive tops, but should not be missing 2 consecutive bottoms, or should be admitting that he does not know anything about the market.
Who is the greater fool--the fool or the fool who listens to the fool?
You are partially correct. Financially speaking, 'cash' is something that is accessible in the short term. Savings accounts, checking accounts, money market funds, CDs, and short-term bonds are all considered 'cash'.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sorry, but that is wrong information. Cash does not fluctuate in value and can be deployed immediately, it is cash. Redeeming a CD early incurs fees. CDs should be in the fixed income (bond) bucket.
Igy
Yes, if I knew 29 1/2 years from now it will be at 30,000.
Tis true wrote:
So if you knew the Dow would be 13,000 in 30 years you would continue to drop money into it?.
Wall Street Wookie wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:You are partially correct. Financially speaking, 'cash' is something that is accessible in the short term. Savings accounts, checking accounts, money market funds, CDs, and short-term bonds are all considered 'cash'.
Sorry, but that is wrong information. Cash does not fluctuate in value and can be deployed immediately, it is cash. Redeeming a CD early incurs fees. CDs should be in the fixed income (bond) bucket.
Igy
But you don't have to believe me. Look it up yourself. You'll see that I am right.
That's one of the most obvious strawman arguments I've ever seen.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Anne,
But you forgot one important point, that most here conveniently forget. The market you cheer for is built on a foundation of sand. That is, the $4.4 Trillion Federal Reserve balance sheet. The end of that story is yet to be written.
Igy
Anne Allysis wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:That's one of the most obvious strawman arguments I've ever seen.
Anne,
But you forgot one important point, that most here conveniently forget. The market you cheer for is built on a foundation of sand. That is, the $4.4 Trillion Federal Reserve balance sheet. The end of that story is yet to be written.
Igy