Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Given the shape of the curve modeling the DJIA over the last several decades, it makes sense to use an exponential growth model for predictive purposes. Plug the year in for x to get the DJIA value.
y = (2 × 10^(-101))e^(0.1206x)
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=737#ixzz4N50pv9qhMarty,
No this was the original question, and as I pointed out a weak model.
I presume you are bright enough to realize that isn't a question.
Here's a short history of this discussion. I was asked by another poster for my mathematical rationale for arguing against Dow 13k. I offered the model above complete with explanation. You (GOI) jumped in with a model from John Hussman at which point I asked you to explain the reasoning he included the "ratio of ratios" as a factor. Instead of answering the question, you proceeded to introduce various strawmen and other diversions presumably in an attempt to distract us from learning that you did not understand Hussman's model.
So THAT was the original question in our little discussion. If you care to offer a thoughtful answer to the question, then we can continue to dialogue and I will be happy to try to answer any of your subsequent questions. I would, of course, also be satisfied to hear you offer the most honest answer: "I don't know." If instead you continue to take the low road and obstruct the conversation, then I shall retire with the understanding that Hussman fooled you too.
The ball is in your hands.