90% stocks? How old are you?
90% stocks? How old are you?
smarter investor wrote:
90% stocks? How old are you?
Turning 24 in a couple of weeks. That is a fair point through. My bond allocation will grow as a get older and closer to retirement to reduce risk. I know there will be bear markets when my portfolio will drop significantly. I am okay with that.
Rolling,
That is fine. I doubt it will crush cash over the next five years. I wonder how you will feel when your NAV is down 40-60%. Many professed "long term, buy and hold investors" sell at the bottom. Good luck though.
Igy
I'm not sure how you define "crush", but equities will certainly comfortably beat cash over the next 5 years.
smarter,
I will be retired by then so I won't put it on my calendar. Look at it this way, S&P market top 3/2000 even index value 10/2007, then next even point 3/2013. So if the next 5 years is anything like the last 16 years, I will be right, cash will outperform.
Igy
But you're purposely picking atypical data points to make your point. The chances are prolly less than 1%.
smarter,
Wrong, it is actually better than 90% probability that I am right. The math is in the over valuation of the equity market. If you have an open mind and a true interest in learning something I would be happy to send you some links.
Igy
First show me your calculations for better than 90% probability. I don't believe they are legit.
K5 detector wrote:
Hi, K5/Igy! Would it be a problem for you if indeed that poster was autistic?
Your parents must have been devastated after your diagnosis.
Still, they should have raised you to be less of an ahole.
smarter,
I have posted a link to an article by Ted Berg, of the Office of Financial Research, Department of the Treasury, entitled "Quicksilver Markets." Go to page three where there is a description and charts for CAPE 10, Tobin's Q, and the Buffet Indicator. In December of 2014 each were near 2-standard deviations above the normal equity valuation level, which by definition would support my view. Furthermore, since that time most of these valuation extremes have been extended as the market has moved higher and fundamentals have declined.
https://financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRbr-2015-02-quicksilver-markets.pdf
I fully expect you to remain a doubter, but your skepicism should be supported by data.
Igy
Thanks that was interesting but it doesn't support your greater than 90% prediction. I think you are confusing percentile with probability. They are not the same. And it was interesting to read that the CAPE earnings are above their historical trend. That's good news.
smarter, OK, but not a very smart interpretation. CAPE valuations are above their historic trends. We will see how it plays out.
Igy
Why did you link to that article if you don't like the author's interpretation?
smarter,
If you draw a positive conclusion from the article you are not very smart.
Learn yourself up sonny boy.
Igy
I didn't draw a positive conclusion and I'm not sure why you would put words into my mouth. Yes, the CAPE trend is positive and there were numerous caveats mentioned but that was a very pessimistic article. But it does not support your made up 90% number. That's the bottom line.
speaking your language....whatever.....
Huh?
smarter,
If you are a smarter investor prove your point.
"But you're purposely picking atypical data points to make your point. The chances are prolly less than 1%."
Read more:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=685#ixzz4Hc2NzGWF
...silence....
Sure. You cherry picked the dates 3/2000, 10/2007, and 3/2013 because to try to make a point. But those were market extremes and atypical of market values over a similar period of years.