Onty wrote:
This kind of investing on a hunch is going to bite him more than it has already.
Bite me more than it already has? I guess if you think avoiding @ $350k in lost value being bitten.
Onty wrote:
This kind of investing on a hunch is going to bite him more than it has already.
Klondike5 wrote:
My point is this.
The "experts" tell us to not try and time the market and to just stay in always and it will work out for the best. This is generally in their self interest as the more we have invested, the more money they make.
While saying don't try to time the market, that is exactly what the speculators and big time players do every single day.
Why not pay attention to what is going on and make educated guesses? We have seen two massive meltdowns of over 50% since the year 2000. Personally I was very happy to be out of the market for most of each of those. It saved me a ton of money. As I noted before, I am no expert but do have common sense and guessed right twice -- I am sure I am not the only one
nice, bigfoot - I don't think many people will read your post carefully enough, but it is a condensed can of excellence.
I am 100% debt free and contribut far more than 15% to tax deferred retirement accounts (via a DB Pension Plan).
Neither of which has a thing to do with being in or out of the market.
I am taking too much risk? By not being in a volatile equities market?
I lost out on 3% in dividends in 2008-09 while avoiding a @ 35% drop in market value and this was a missed opportunity?
No I don't want to play dips and valleys. Which is why I am now out of the equities market for the third time in 14 years. By staying in at all times you will surely experience the dips and valleys
If you invest in a managed fund, you are paying people to guess as to what to buy and sell.
I.e., paying people with no knowledge of what the future will be to do exactly what you say investors should not do
Klondike5 wrote:
By staying in at all times you will surely experience the dips and valleys
The Truth. wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
By staying in at all times you will surely experience the dips and valleys
...and the peaks.
Investor wrote:
You lose nothing until you sell.
Bigfoot Investments wrote:
Let us imagine two individuals, Mr. Hold and Mr. Sell...
Stanley R. wrote:
Investor wrote:
You lose nothing until you sell.
Bigfoot Investments wrote:
Let us imagine two individuals, Mr. Hold and Mr. Sell...
Thanks for the story, but it seems to me that it substantiates the original quote above. Mr. Sell sold stock and is now down $100,000. He did not lose anything until he sold. Mr. Hold has no loss because he has not yet sold.
Thanks for your reply. In the end, they have the same amount of stock, but Mr. Sell has $100,000 less in cash. That's because he sold the stock (before repurchasing). His smaller kitty is directly attributable to him selling stock. Yes?
The biggest fools here are the ones who are only invested in the market. Talk about all your eggs in one basket.
RL wrote:
The biggest fools here are the ones who are only invested in the market. Talk about all your eggs in one basket.
Stanley R. wrote:
Thanks for your reply. In the end, they have the same amount of stock, but Mr. Sell has $100,000 less in cash. That's because he sold the stock (before repurchasing). His smaller kitty is directly attributable to him selling stock. Yes?
Bigfoot Investments wrote:
How is it that the person who hasn't made a dime is wealthier than the person who has made a half a million dollars when they started out equal?
Klondike5 wrote:
If you invest in a managed fund, you are paying people to guess as to what to buy and sell.
I.e., paying people with no knowledge of what the future will be to do exactly what you say investors should not do
I know wrote:
Bigfoot Investments wrote:
How is it that the person who hasn't made a dime is wealthier than the person who has made a half a million dollars when they started out equal?
Because he's like Flagpole and holding onto his investments. And the selling fellow is like Klondike5 who must face the tax implications for selling his stocks. As the other fellow said, you don't lose until you sell.
Flagpole wrote:
...and then if the market tanks a TON, and you have extra, put more money in then. This is not timing the market...this is taking advantage of a buying opportunity...you can buy a lot more shares when the prices have dropped.
Smoked. wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
...and then if the market tanks a TON, and you have extra, put more money in then. This is not timing the market...this is taking advantage of a buying opportunity...you can buy a lot more shares when the prices have dropped.
By your logic, Klondike is not "timing the market" with his recent sale. He is "taking advantage of a selling opportunity"... he can get a lot more money for his shares since the prices have run up a TON.
Onty wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
So when I got back in at 9,000 and got the ride up to 15,000, I had a much larger pile than I would have had I stayed in for the ride down from 12,000 plus to 6,800 and so have a much larger pile today.
Why didn't you get back in closer to 6800?
perfect - enemy of good enough wrote:
Onty wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
So when I got back in at 9,000 and got the ride up to 15,000, I had a much larger pile than I would have had I stayed in for the ride down from 12,000 plus to 6,800 and so have a much larger pile today.
Why didn't you get back in closer to 6800?
The beautiful thing is that he didn't even have to get it anywhere close to "perfect" (nailing the exact bottom... or top for that matter), and he still benefited greatly.