Try,
Try again, fewer companies are beating earnings yet the market going up. Ouch yourself dufus.
Igy
Try,
Try again, fewer companies are beating earnings yet the market going up. Ouch yourself dufus.
Igy
Try,
Just Try reading this article and you might understand your smug comments were off base.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/institutionalized-lying-why-central-bankers-never-see-bubbles/
Igy
So you say "earnings are coming", but then you use earnings reports to try to put down your protagonist. Are you a complete idiot?
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U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open Tuesday but futures lost some ground after an economic report showed weakness in housing starts in March.
West Texas Intermediate crude prices for May delivery gained, staying in the vicinity of $40 a barrel. "The stability in oil prices has strengthened attitudes among traders, who are developing a strong appetite for riskier assets," said Naeem Aslam, AvaTrade's chief market analyst, in a note.
On Monday, the Dow added 106.70 points, or 0.6%, to 18,004.16, closing above 18,000 for the first time since July as oil pared losses. Crude futures dived early Monday after major producers failed to agree on a production freeze, which weighed on stocks initially. But the commodity settled just moderately lower following news of labor strikes in Kuwait.
The Dow now stands back above 18,000 and "only a touch away from its all-time high," Aslam added. "What does this spell out? Nothing but pure confidence."
econ: housing starts unch but at a high level
same store sales got even worse, +0.5%. retail sales have been the most punk indicators of all, I'd say.
MarketWatching
"Dow now stands back above 18,000 and "only a touch away from its all-time high," Igy added. "What does this spell out? Nothing but pure ignorance."
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
From Doug Short:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Equity-Valuations-Reccessions-and-the-MarketIgy
.
During secular bull markets, modest overvaluation does not produce large stock market declines.
This is where we have been for a while. A bull market for around 7 years with high valuations for much of it.
We probably don't have to worry about a little overvaluation unless there is a recession.
Predicting a recession before the market declines... is impossible of course...that's why I like in principle the 200 day moving average strategy. It lets the market do the prediction rather than you.
But in the real world it is very difficult to put in place, unfortunately.
agip,
In 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 the S&P 500 went down in advance of a recession.
Top 100 market cap companies of S&P 500, GAAP Earnings Scorecard for Q1 2016, Quarterly Year over Year difference:
JNJ +.01
JPM -.10
WFC -.13
PM -.18
PEP -.17
BAC -.04
IBM -.36
C -.41
UNH +.21
GS -3.26
NFLX +.01
BLK -.92
Out of twelve, 3 up and 9 down.
Don't stop believin'.....
Igy
Igy, the bull market is very much alive. Note I didn't say "alive and well." It will drop the requisite 20% at some time, but no one knows when. We're all just guessing on the timetable here. But to refer to those who realize the bull market lives as "uninformed" is not only wrong, it also makes you appear to be uninformed.
POTO,
It depends how you define a Bull Market, in my view using earnings, it ended in 3rd Quarter 2014. Since then the market has struggled to move meaningfully higher. LTM earnings will be down again once this quarter is concluded. The only thing no one knows is how long can the institutions juice stock prices.
Igy
POTO,
Even if I agree the Bull Market lives, it is tired of running from the picadors. The market peaked at 2,134 on May 21, 2015, and closed at 2,100 on 4/20/2015. During that time the market has experienced two declines of over 12% from the highs. The picadors will soon be in for the kill and when the Bull takes its last gasp it will be down 40-50%.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
It depends how you define a Bull Market, in my view using earnings, it ended in 3rd Quarter 2014. Since then the market has struggled to move meaningfully higher. LTM earnings will be down again once this quarter is concluded. The only thing no one knows is how long can the institutions juice stock prices.
Igy
The definition of a bull market has NOTHING to do with earnings. Maybe indirectly, but even that's a stretch.
Try,
OK, then a Bull Market in what? Not true of NYSE listed stocks, international developed markets, commodities or emerging markets. Certainly in the minds of Joe Q Public the Bull market is in question.
The S&P 500 closed at or near where it was a year ago.
I will give you a Napping Bull Market in the S&P 500.
Igy
Does anyone believe that investing in silver would be a good investment?
Igy[/quote].
During secular bull markets, modest overvaluation does not produce large stock market declines.
This is where we have been for a while. A bull market for around 7 years with high valuations for much of it.
We probably don't have to worry about a little overvaluation unless there is a recession.
Predicting a recession before the market declines... is impossible of course...that's why I like in principle the 200 day moving average strategy. It lets the market do the prediction rather than you.
But in the real world it is very difficult to put in place, unfortunately.[/quote]
Reasons why I have turned cautious over the last week or 2 (not short--yet--just cautious):
(1) The market has wandered into the bears' den. The area between 2100 and 2134 is a region bears MUST defend or face a much harder time once a move to 2400 gets started. So you can expect more shorting coming on. The catch is that, after the earnings taper out, there is only the Fed meeting on the 27th now that no oil momentum can be expected until at least June.
(2) Full scale overbought. Now 71% of SP500 above the 200 day:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SPXA200R
It can go to 80% above the 200 day in a strong breadth surge--and we may have that--but notice that it doesn't stay above 70% for long. This is not like the PE stuff Igy keeps talking about.
(3) Fish Hook on gold. Means an attempted reversal that failed, and that may mean quantitative failure, which is the largest risk for big money investors. Also, professionals are heavily short bonds.
(4) The big money has closed almost 40,000 S&P positions, just like in December:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SPM16&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jumpI am not saying to sell everything or sell things that have tax consequences. I am not selling any stocks. I AM saying: BE CAREFUL.
As I understand it, the primary case for the bull market is that interest rates are going lower from central bank policy world wide. I own a Vanguard long term bond fund and its actually up about 8% YTD. That doesn't strike me as a healthy bull market. I sold out of some stocks about a month ago and have about 40% of my investment portfolio in cash now. I'm happy I did that even though I'm missing out on some gains. I feel like the Fed is using extortion to try to get investors into risky investments. If people want to buy into this market, go knock yourself out. I'm happy to sit it out even if the market continues to go higher in the coming months. That said, I've done pretty well with my Ford and Tesla stock purchases I got back around January. At least as I type this. I still hold those positions although I sold out of a more expensive position in Ford for a loss.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Market Watching
"It is remarkable that stocks are able to shrug off a drop in oil and climb. Maybe we moved on from the tyranny of oil, to the tyranny of the institutional traders. Earnings are coming and the traders are praying for a miracle. Unfortunately, most buyers will find that stock valuations are not supported by earnings." said Igy.
U.S. stock futures inched higher Wednesday even as oil prices dropped, with the S&P 500 trying to extend a two-day advance. U.S. stock futures had been modestly lower earlier Wednesday.
The recent rally for riskier assets has "fatigued," RBC foreign-exchange analysts said in a note Wednesday. "Oil led the way after the Kuwait oil workers union decided to cancel their strike, prompting crude to fall $1/bbl, with other risk assets following suit." West Texas Intermediate crude and Brent both were down more than 1% as Kuwaiti workers called off a three-day strike, a key supportive factor for oil prices this week.
On Tuesday, the S&P and Dow both closed up 0.3%, leaving the two stock gauges just 1.4% below their all-time highs hit last May.