ADP job report -- steady, solid numbers. +200k jobs
Mortgage apps: -2.0% w/w. Noise.
ADP job report -- steady, solid numbers. +200k jobs
Mortgage apps: -2.0% w/w. Noise.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
They say patience is a virtue, in distance running and in investing it is a necessity.
Igy
Don't tell me you're going all "buy and hold" on us now.
I've been waiting for treasuries to fall for a while now...they are off their peak al little, but I've been waiting for better prices.
One of the hard parts about investing is the wait...we are built to measure by the day week or month...when you have to wait six months for something it is very challenging.
POTO,
I am not against buy and hold as long as one has sufficient time horizon to ride a downturn. As I have posted before there is the concept of sequence of returns, which would argue for a more conservative stance for those of us with a shorter time horizon for cash flow needs.
My calls are valuation based on historical data over a century of time. Which by the way would point to around zero equity returns over a 10-12 year time horizon from here. Of course we can believe that this time is different.
Statistics are subject to place and time. Buy and hold looks better at a market top than at a market bottom. The buy and hold investor of SPY in March of 2009 had 13 years of returns wiped-out.
How many buy and hold investors sell during severe market turmoil?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The buy and hold investor of SPY in March of 2009 had 13 years of returns wiped-out.
And those who "held" have since more than tripled their stake.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How many buy and hold investors sell during severe market turmoil?
None. By definition, a buy-and-hold investor would hold.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The buy and hold investor of SPY in March of 2009 had 13 years of returns wiped-out.
And those who "held" have since more than tripled their stake.
You cannot do basic math.
Dow low was 6,547.
Currently Dow is at 17,717.
6,547 x 3 = 19,641, nearly 11% higher than the Dow is at.
And that is cherry picking the absolute nadir of the Dow in 2009
By Deception wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The buy and hold investor of SPY in March of 2009 had 13 years of returns wiped-out.
And those who "held" have since more than tripled their stake.
You cannot do basic math.
Dow low was 6,547.
Currently Dow is at 17,717.
6,547 x 3 = 19,641, nearly 11% higher than the Dow is at.
And that is cherry picking the absolute nadir of the Dow in 2009
Ummm...ever heard of dividends?
Ummm...ever heard that SPY =/= The Dow?
Ummm...ever heard of anything?
Big,
OK, then buy more and hold more.
Stock buyback falling in March:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/buyback-fuel-for-the-bull-market-is-losing-steam.html
Igy
Maserati and agip,
Bill Gross does a good job of outlining how negative interests rates detract from all investment returns over time:
https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook?gclid=CK6Ivv_F6csCFVFgfgodBsoIZA
Igy
Wall Street was set for a day in the red, with investors taking a breather on the last day of the quarter as they waited for key labor market data.
The losses follow Wednesday's positive close for U.S. equities after dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who signaled the central bank won't raise interest rates in April. Over the past month, there has been a fall in expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates again soon, which has helped boost U.S. stock markets and weaken the dollar.
As of Wednesday's close, the Dow average was on track for a 7.3% monthly gain, which would be its best since October. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also on track for their best monthly performances since October.
That's the biggest news since 2 minutes ago!
lmao
today's econ news
nothing dramatic
job cuts low, mid-trend
jobless claims stable, near recent lows
good jobs rate stable
Much talk about the divergence around the world: jobs, but little econ growth and terrible productivity.
If anyone sees a good article explaining it, let me know.
Maserati,
This article is for your perusal:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/yellen-plants-a-sloppy-wet-one-on-wall-street-hfts/
Igy
Believe me agip, there is no economic growth here, either.
Increased costs for things that are really taxes (medical insurance), and cheap-money-fueled asset inflation, and other things that are counted toward GDP, do not represent real economic growth.
Maserati wrote:
Believe me agip, there is no economic growth here, either.
Increased costs for things that are really taxes (medical insurance), and cheap-money-fueled asset inflation, and other things that are counted toward GDP, do not represent real economic growth.
you know, Maser, when Trump says 'believe me' it means he is about to lie to your face.
Obviously there is economic growth.
Here's more on that weird divergence between some stats that show little or no income increase and others that show solid growth. This article says that us household spending, adj for inflation, is surging, and has never been higher. Which implies more money coming in the front door.
And even with this spending, the savings rate is stable or even rising, and debt service burdens are very low. So it's not just borrowing. Maybe measurements of spending are more accurate than measurements of income.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/30/since-the-recession-were-spending-again-but-with-less-income/By Deception wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:And those who "held" have since more than tripled their stake.
You cannot do basic math.
Dow low was 6,547.
Currently Dow is at 17,717.
6,547 x 3 = 19,641, nearly 11% higher than the Dow is at.
And that is cherry picking the absolute nadir of the Dow in 2009
And you apparently cannot read. We were discussing SPY, not the DOW.
SPY low in March 2009 was 67.10. Today it is around 206. It has indeed more than tripled.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
By Deception wrote:You cannot do basic math.
Dow low was 6,547.
Currently Dow is at 17,717.
6,547 x 3 = 19,641, nearly 11% higher than the Dow is at.
And that is cherry picking the absolute nadir of the Dow in 2009
And you apparently cannot read. We were discussing SPY, not the DOW.
SPY low in March 2009 was 67.10. Today it is around 206. It has indeed more than tripled.
better than that - Yahoo finance has an adjusted price function that includes dividends - it shows a low for SPY of around 59.32 and today's price of 206.14. Much more than triple.
And using DIA as a proxy for the Dow, there has also been more than a triple - from around 55.87 to 177.09. Incl dividends.
"Obviously there is economic growth"
I have not seen this proven to my satisfaction.
I do agree that in certain sectors there has been asset inflation, and that many things are included in the GDP calculation that should not be.