Hey, K5, you're talking to yourself. Again.
Hey, K5, you're talking to yourself. Again.
Hey, K5, good story. I loved Jackie Mason. Very funny. But I'm not sure why the reference to the surname Schwartze. No one had used that name prior to your post. Are you okay?
coach d that doesn't give me a headache. It is a measure of market performance, plain and simple, as are all technical indicators. It is just as easy to infer it as a major bottom, as it is a huge dead cat bounce.
It doesn't bother me at all, in fact, even if it is used to infer a major bottom, because I don't believe that the market is determined by fundamentals; even more so, I don't believe that the market SHOULD necessarily be driven by fundamentals.
Technical analysis is no more than the putative analysis of the activity of market participants, and as long as the aggregate participants can be relied upon to act more-or-less as they always have, technicals can be of some use.
However, I still believe that a sea change is taking place, although potentially more slowly than I first believed. 2016 was when I believed, and still believe, we will see a dislocation in the performance of market participants, and a discontinuity in the inferential logic used in technical analysis. I think it will be driven by currencies, worldwide money movement, the invasion of europe, and the american election.
And I took that 401k out of the 80/20 allocation after the major rises, around DJIA 16.9k, and the specific vehicles had gone even higher than that.
AND I can switch it back if and when I want, which I might. So no big deal.
My real money is still elsewhere, with much in cash. I don't need to make anything on it, and at this point, the markets are too risky IMO relative to their performance. 20% in 4 days, yes, that's ridiculous. Just like 32% in one year, I would get out...and I did.
That's b.s. The fall wasn't, because it took things back to a more sensible fundamental level, but we are back to optimism-driven territory. I'm not with the herd. You strike me as a guy who is absolutely with the herd, almost a pure momentum trader. I can afford to wait for a REAL buying opportunity, and wait I will.
Real buying opportunity? Where were you in January?
Milt,
Last year Wall Street analysts were off on average 20% on their S&P earnings and price target. I would not rely on the recent rally as a forward predictor of anything but speculation.
Last year's Wall Street analysts predictions:
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-2015-sp-500-forecasts-2015-1
Igy
[quote]K5 detector wrote:
Hey, K5, good story. I loved Jackie Mason. Very funny.
Now I know you are brain dead. Jackie Mason funny? Very funny?
But I'm not sure why the reference to the surname Schwartze. No one had used that name prior to your post.
Right. Adding the "I" removes all racist connotations.
It's a different name, K5, and by more than just one letter. You're really showing your desperation here, little guy.
]K5 detector wrote:
It's a different name, K5, and by more than just one letter. You're really showing your desperation here, little guy.[/quote]
Sure defector (traitor really).
Spell the N word different by a letter or two and it's all dandy. I am sure a brave warrior like yourself would go up to a group of black men and call them the N word an explain that you are spelling it differently so its all just fine.
Racist buffoon and coward. Just like your heroes
K5 detector wrote:
It's a different name, K5, and by more than just one letter. You're really showing your desperation here, little guy.
Desperation is what wee are seeing from the neocons as they try to stop the one candidate that is not in their back pocket. Imagine a Trump admin. With no Israeli Firsters in it? They sure as Hell can and are bound and determined to override the will of the American people to protect their power
From the usually overly optimistic FactSet:
"As a result of the downward revisions to earnings estimates, the estimated year-over-year earnings decline for Q1 2016 is -8.0% today, which is below the expected earnings growth of 0.3% at the start of the quarter (December 31). Seven sectors are projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Materials sectors.Three sectors are predicted to report year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Telecom Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors."
But no one called anyone anything here. You're grasping at straws.
As for Trump, his connections to Wall Street and Bibi are well documented. I'm surprised you're supporting him. On second thought....
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Milt,
Last year Wall Street analysts were off on average 20% on their S&P earnings and price target. I would not rely on the recent rally as a forward predictor of anything but speculation.
Last year's Wall Street analysts predictions:
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-2015-sp-500-forecasts-2015-1
Igy
So first you suggested it was different this time and now you say it's not. Make up your mind.
Milt,
Read closer, analyst have been very wrong, last year and predictions for an earnings recovery this year. Earnings continue to decline, so the movement up in the market is driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
Igy
I came across this at zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-06/unintended-consequences-greenspans-frankenstein-markets
This is what I have been railing about, in part--valuation. Asset inflation, particularly equities. I had been participating in segments of the art market that were on the upswing, and participated in those gains, after which certain segments are insanely overvalued and are therefore coming back to earth.
They don't report on that, only on things like equities, housing, farmland, etc., and only in a coarse manner.
OK equities are expensive. Yes, they are, but the transaction costs are super-duper cheap compared to other things, and the transactions are super-duper easy. I mean insanely easy. Ever try buying a serious piece of art and trying to ship it around the world? Or antiquities? Let me tell you, it's insane.
Equities are so insanely easy, which is why, although relatively overpriced, they continue to move. Like I always ask, especially to Igy: WHAT ARE THE REALISTIC OPTIONS? If you want to not have to work your investments, there are none, if you want some return.
NONE. We are stuck with the markets, and everybody knows it. Even things outside the markets are now inside: RE in REITS and builders, gold in miners and ETF's, etc.
Maserati,
That same aspect of liquidity increases the danger of the equity market. Recent events since the market peak shows more of a trend of sharp sell-offs with sharp recoveries but only to a lower high. The seeming stability encourages investors to hold while the technical and fundamental landscape declines. Yet the trend in earnings and market performance is down.
Igy
You need to make up your mind.
Hey, question for you guys:
I made a run as a day trader in early 2015. Got absolutely hammered (lost $3,800). I'll be reporting the losses on my tax return this year, but how the hell do I do it with so many trades? Do I have to report every single stock I traded?
Milt,
Get your eyes checked.
Igy
Yes, you need to report each trade. They are itemized on your 1099. If you use tax preparation software, it may be able to automatically download the information from your broker.
Will the winning streak be extended? A study in psychology...
www.marketwatch.com/story/fear-of-missing-out-could-give-this-rally-its-next-leg-up-2016-03-07