Do you not see how these are all related?
How can you tout an article while disagreeing with its topic sentence. Please tell me you are pulling my leg.
Do you not see how these are all related?
How can you tout an article while disagreeing with its topic sentence. Please tell me you are pulling my leg.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big,
I disagree, the market has gone down since last spring because earning have been falling. The market went up this week because institutions were riding each others trades. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a neat and convenient theory but divorced from the reality of fundamental reasons of price and cash flow.
Igy
The market has been going down since summer because oil has been falling. All they care about is Capex. You see this EVERY week. The market went up starting 2/11/2016, because there was a very reliable technical signal (double bottom retest with reduced volume and positive RSI divergence), and everybody jumped in. Me too.
The SP500 commitment of traders has large commercials long 55,560 contracts, worth close to $30 billion in nominal value. The smart/big money is accumulating long; I will probably join them again next week, assuming the double bottom activation/breakout point of ~1940 holds. Sorry, but YOU are on the side with the muppets--for now. I'm not saying this is going to last any longer than it did last October.
coach d,
I don't doubt that institutions will attempt to drive the market higher. Each time they do the result is weaker and shorter. At some point you may be the Muppet.
This is what you, and most are missing. The drop in energy and commodities. coincided with the ending of the Taper. That was the first tightening by the Fed because it withdrew liquidity from the system. Followed by a collapse of China and the junk bond market. The contagion has spread to other markets. So the only hope left to drive markets significantly higher is coordinated central bank action.
Igy
Big,
You quoted a general statement while true, is not all one needs to know. So you are either ignoring or missing my point and the point of the article. Stocks prices have risen 55% while earnings have increased by only 4% during the period in question. Speculative periods end badly and that is why stocks have underperformed since last spring. That is the point the author wanted to make. Why would the author spend another thousand words and multiple charts to make a specific point on market valuation?
Igy
Like any good writer, the author's words were used to support his topic sentence. We all learned this in elementary school. The fact that stock prices have risen more than earnings supports his point that the market is forward looking.
I wondered earlier if you were pulling my leg. Based on your most recent posts to me and coach d I am more convinced than ever that you are trolling. Congratulations, you got me.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This is what you, and most are missing. The drop in energy and commodities. coincided with the ending of the Taper. That was the first tightening by the Fed because it withdrew liquidity from the system. Followed by a collapse of China and the junk bond market. The contagion has spread to other markets. So the only hope left to drive markets significantly higher is coordinated central bank action.
Igy
This is crazy talk. The Fed did not withdraw liquidity from the system.
Big,
No troling from my corner, but that is your attempt to be clever. Your summary of "all you need to know" explains very little about an article entitled "Peak Stupidity"-Where We Go From Here. Perhaps the title explains why you missed the point.
Igy
Say,
You are wrong and I am not crazy. The process of the Fed purchasing Treasury Bonds in fact adds liquidity to financial system. The Bonds become an asset on the Fed balance sheet and the Federal Reserve Notes that flow into the economy become the liability. So, once the bond buying stopped liquidity was withdrawn from the financial system. In fact that was the first Fed tightening. See I am not crazy and you were wrong.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big,
No troling from my corner, but that is your attempt to be clever. Your summary of "all you need to know" explains very little about an article entitled "Peak Stupidity"-Where We Go From Here. Perhaps the title explains why you missed the point.
Igy
I am not trying to be clever, nor did I miss the point of the article. So please be respectful and keep your judgements of me to yourself.
I can't believe you sucked me back in to your little game. My bad.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
I don't doubt that institutions will attempt to drive the market higher. Each time they do the result is weaker and shorter. At some point you may be the Muppet.
This is what you, and most are missing. The drop in energy and commodities. coincided with the ending of the Taper. That was the first tightening by the Fed because it withdrew liquidity from the system. Followed by a collapse of China and the junk bond market. The contagion has spread to other markets. So the only hope left to drive markets significantly higher is coordinated central bank action.
Igy
Igy,
You are the one who needs a history lesson. Peak prices for commodities like copper as well as oil and gold, topped in 2011, two years before the taper of QE started. This correlated with the top of China's economy, not a taper of QE. Production increase of oil in the US in 2013-2915 AFTER QE TAPERED was DOUBLE the production increase in the two years previous:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=MYou can perhaps argue that global increased commodity production was facilitated by low interest loans (and you can see that in the debt/gdp ratios of EM), but demand in the US has not decreased (and you can see that in the stocks of USA retailers doing well).
Also, the production of copper shows mine production remaining at 85% for several years. They have reduced production, but demand has reduced just as fast. Once again, this was going on BEFORE the QE taper.
Don't feed the troll.
coach d,
Perhaps I was not clear. I was not referencing peak oil, commodities, China or junk bonds or any asset class. I was referring to the collapse of oil, commodities, China, and junk bonds, which corresponded to the Taper. Once the Fed first tightened, which I believe was the Taper, it started a negative feedback loop that was indeed dependent on liquidity. I see it as fairly obvious that the rise of asset prices, such as stocks or Southern California real estate, for example, were dependent upon cheap abundant liquidity. If you believe differently, OK.
Igy
Alert,
I have real opinions unlike you.
Igy
There are lots of opinions here. But if they don't align with igly then your told you didn't read the link, or misunderstood, or are not as smart, etc.
Sally V,
From the Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research "2015 Annual Report," dated 12/15/2015:
"The persistence and effects of low U.S. and global interest rates. U.S. interest rates remain in a historically low range, which continues to incentivize financial risk-taking and borrowing. Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin raising interest rates imminently, the pace of tightening is expected to be gradual, and long-term interest rates appear to be suppressed by factors that may endure for some time. Excesses related to the low-interest-rate environment could pose financial stability risks:
• Investors continue to reach for yield, taking on significant duration, volatility, and credit risk.
• Risk premiums in U.S. fixed-income markets are suppressed, raising the potential for rapid and disorderly repricing.
• The low level of interest rates underlies the high level and rapid growth of U.S. nonfinancial business debt and the associated credit risk, as discussed."
Igy
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Sally V, coach d, Maserati, agip, et al,
Going forward I will no longer post unless someone asks me a direct question.
Best wishes on your investments.
Moving on.
Igy
Ghost of lgIoi wrote:
All,
The last post was my the infantile imposter and has been reported. I will continue to post whenever I feel there is something worthwhile to say, or an opportunity to educate arises.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Igy
The cowardly hyenas are ganging up on you.
Fortunately, individually and as a group, they are among the dumbest homo sapiens the world has ever seen.
More fuel on the fire:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-27/mind-non-gaap-over-20-sp-500s-value-accounting-gimmicks
Couldn't resist. "Buffet-approved" GAAP S&P500 P/E
And LMAO coach d talking about stock prices as evidence of US commodity demand (unless he was talking about physical commodity stock and not equity stock). Hey, isn't product demand a fundamental?
Good riddance.