Hope and change, hope for the future and change in your pocket.
Hope and change, hope for the future and change in your pocket.
I win, two out of three from same source:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/22/two-more-signs-a-recession-could-be-coming.html
Carter Worth is a much better resource than Fed academic and even me, Jim Cramer:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/recession-might-be-in-the-cards-if-historys-a-guide-analyst.html
Don't worry you can survive the recession, so says this CNBC piece:
Running out of ammo, I see.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/24/feds-lacker-sees-no-evidence-us-recession-is-imminent.html
No muppets here, just a LOT of Junk. That's junk of the bond kind:
Do NOT be long any of the money center banks (I am short). This is not going to end well for either the frakers or the holders of the security/loans. And let's hope the Cleveland Stress Test can cover what's coming.
I think I'm going to stay short for a while.
coach d,
The chorus of people coming out each day to say that things "are improving" while the data says something entirely different should make one run. Did you see Shanghai down 6.4% overnight? I doubt that any central bank can counter what is coming. Muppets will be overwhelmed just before the buying opportunity. It just works that way.
Igy
Some things are improving, others are not. It's not all or nothing.
Lemons,
Let me give you the point. I think the rate of change and sequence in the business cycle should be the focus. For example employment is a lagging indicator. Here are some facts in regards to earnings that you and others should consider:
2016 Earnings Estimates on an Operating Earnings (non-GAAP) basis (favorite of Wall Street) $120.16 a share; Average S&P Analyst 2016 S&P Target 2125
All-Time High S&P 500 Last Twelve Months (LTM) Operating Earnings $114.51, 9/30/2014 when S&P 500 was trading at 1972
Estimated 2015 (LTM) Operating Earnings $102.74 (with 90% of companies reporting), when S&P closed 2015 at 2043
Last time operating earnings was this low was 9/202013 at $102.20 and the S&P 500 was trading at 1681
So if since the Operating Earnings have fallen 10% from the high, and the trend continues to be down, how do you reconcile the current level of the index to the actual data?
Igy
Here is an accurate portrayal of optimistic spin juxtaposed against the facts:
Igy
Nowhere else to park money.
RE=good but hugely inflated some places
BANK=bail-in risk + zero return
BONDS=total crap, easiest to fudge
OPTIONS/FUTURES=require some knowledge and trading facility
GOLD=inconvenient and technicals point down
ART=deflating now
EM's=sketchy at best
CURRENCIES=can be good but require knowledge and trading facility
etc.
So people will, and do, pay a premium to be in stocks, even though earnings aren't historically great.
There are good and bad aspects to everything, including US equities at current prices.
Unless you are a gold bug Igy, it's all relative.
I still have a lot in cash, about which I'm getting worried. Wells Fargo, JPM, and others are setting aside more for O&G-related losses, but that won't be enough to take them down; what bothers me is derivatives, possible FDIC receivership, and the receiver coming for unsecured creditor depositors in excess of insured FDIC levels (bail-in).
I get less comfortable by the day having cash in certain banks. I have made some RE moves to get money out of the banks, but even there, I wait until good deals come along.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
So if since the Operating Earnings have fallen 10% from the high, and the trend continues to be down, how do you reconcile the current level of the index to the actual data?
Igy
because stocks are not bought for trailing earnings - they are bought for future earnings. And the Sp500 PE for future operating earnings is just 14 or 15.
new recovery highs today in small caps and real estate
so that's something
agip,
But as outlined in my comment and citation earnings are coming down, and analyst keep lowering their forward earnings. It's a game, the analysts forward earnings keep being moved down as facts meet fantasy.
Igy
this may or may not be interesting or meaningful:
I looked at factset from feb 2015 to see what the estimates for 4Q2015 were...and what they turned out to be
they were estimated to be 32.54
and it looks like they will come out to be around 29.68
down around 9%
and guess what...the sp500 is down around 7% over a year
although including dividends it is only down around 5%
I'm not making any conclusiuons from that...I suppose it shows that the market isn't whistling past the graveyard...earnings have fallen and the market has fallen in roughly the same amount.
(disregarding the operating vs GAAP issue)
agip,
My criticism would be, yes near term not a big miss, but when analyst are projecting a huge recovery in 3rd and 4th quarters of 2016, how realistic is that? In fact, the analysts keep lowering their earnings as the year goes along. So what is the value here? Especially when it is clearly trending down and their optimistic projections for Quarters 3 and 4 seem more like fantasy as the year goes on.
Igy