IMO in investing, there is significant merit to KISS.
I don't claim any genius or inside information in investing, but I have been able to avoid both the .com crash and the subprime crash. The .com was the same as when I got out this time, years with insane gains and some stocks that were skyrocketing. Too good to be true IMO, and I got out. Back then, like now, I got out maybe a bit "early", but in hindsight it looks brilliant.
The subprime, I got out "very early". Again, I missed out on some potential gains, but again I looked brilliant. I first got out of bonds when I got jittery talking to a banker, after having talked to a mortgage originator and a realtor/broker who were total morons and who knew absolutely nothing...that, and constantly receiving unsolicited mortgage offers for, no kidding, 8-10x as much as I had taken as a mortgage in 2000, along with all sorts of other credit solicitations. That's when I first talked to a local bigwig banker about the mortgage industry, and the credit industry more specifically, and really learned about margin. Honestly, that freaked my wife out, and we got out of US equities, too.
Nothing genius, just KISS. If it sounds too good to be true, it is.
The only question is how the markets will adjust, on what time-frame. Will they idle along for long enough that fundamentals and the economy catch up to the valuations, or will they crash and reset? I'm hoping for yet another crash and reset, then I can get back in...and then back out when the BS meter registers again.
Mark my words today: currencies will be the next horizon of insanity. I have already said that I don't trade FX, but I do hold cash in several currencies. Those who know what they are doing and are lucky will get rich on currencies in the next 5 years. As I said before, I look for control, and stability, because the 2 together give predictability, IMO a necessary precondition for business investment. Places like Switzerland are interesting in this respect. Also, the alternative of just completely packing it in and doing nothing/travelling becomes a viable option in a time of great turmoil and unpredictability, IMO.
Things have gone to hell in a handbasket in the USA, IMO. What needs to happen to right the ship, will not happen IMO. The USA might be an OK place to live, but it will not be the best place to make money, or to keep money.
No way would I touch the markets at these index levels.