POTO,
Since I gave you a list of additional stocks, then, how many examples do I have include to not be cherry picking? And, give me an example to counter my cherry picking, because you may be doing the same thru YOUR ASSUMPTION!
Igy
POTO,
Since I gave you a list of additional stocks, then, how many examples do I have include to not be cherry picking? And, give me an example to counter my cherry picking, because you may be doing the same thru YOUR ASSUMPTION!
Igy
You asked "how is that statement cherry picking?" I told you.
Now tell me what you think are my assumptions.
Come on, Ghost gave you 5 stocks. What are your assumptions?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Chipoltle Mexican Grille (CMG) was at $757 on 10/13/2015. Today down to as low as $548. Once the risk premium is driven from a stock, bad news can come with dramatic negative stock performance.
Risk is inherent in all stocks. And negative news like E.coli will naturally lead to a loss in value. That's the nature of the beast.
"The only way you can say the markets are ignoring fundamentals is if you think somehow that the Fed reserve and their one interest rate has somehow goosed the market to a giant degree."
Incorrect. There are lots of large entities that trade on technicals.
"High employment." Incorrect. Labor force participation rate at all-time low.
"Low inflation." Incorrect, depending on how "inflation" is measured, and on what population. Inflation at the consumer level is very significant--food, utilities, medical, property taxes, etc. The drop in pump prices is not nearly enough to offset these increases, as they are more than offset by health care expenses alone. Corporations are not passing on savings to the consumer, hence some decent profits--e.g. airlines--but profits are multi-faceted. Also profits are international, benefits to the US are not. Governments NEVER achieve any savings, and hence have nothing to pass on to the consumer except increased fees.
It already IS worse, much worse. More and more real income is economically wasted on inefficient government uses, and inefficient corporate uses like health care. That is money that is unavailable for REAL economic development, which is crucial to REAL economic growth, which is NOT the same thing as the velocity of money.
etc.
We are already "there". It is already "worse". Without saying more, I will say that not all bank regulators are competent. They understand something about law, but they understand next to nothing about banking, finance, and especially commerce. This is worrisome. I personally have little faith in reserve requirements, etc., as a result. It pains me greatly to not be able to say more.
Finally, the absolutely incomprehensible level of unfunded liabilities is enough to destroy any rosy economic projections. Deficit spending, an aging population, and W, F, and A spell the end of our current monetary, fiscal, and even possibly economic paradigms.
We are there NOW, at this very moment. The sun is currently setting on what we used to know. Twilight can indeed be beautiful, and even last for a while, but it is definitely not daylight. I ranted about it earlier in this thread, and I will say it again: those of us who have anything significant to lose are spending our time perfecting and effecting exit strategies, rather than investing and re-investing in north american social and economic endeavor. If our IRA/401k was anything more than 2% of our portfolio, I would not only move it to cash, I would cash out completely and just pay the penalty. As it is, it is trivial. And I even chafe at my latest RE acquisition, even though I will be renting out more than half of it, and it will therefore "pay for itself and then some", just because it is in the USA...and even at that, I have prepared: the build-out is such that it can be reversed in less than one day, and be placed on the market.
Exit strategy is no laughing matter, it is complex and difficult, as it involves citizenships, residencies, patriation, and expatriation, and taxes, at least as far as the US is concerned. I understand that I am fortunate to be in the position to have to think about this, and although I hate the fact that I have to spend the time doing it, rather than contributing to the building of this society and economy, I would hate even more to be in the position of not having to worry about it, and to just have limited options in how I was going to bend over and take it. I feel for those who will have to, and it will be up to them to make the required changes to society, as they have a narrower range of options to avoid its coming negative effects.
Also agip, real deflation is just as bad as high real inflation. The way numbers have been fudged (GDP calculations, etc), you can believe that we may well be in a period of real deflation.
Maserati wrote:
Also agip, real deflation is just as bad as high real inflation. The way numbers have been fudged (GDP calculations, etc), you can believe that we may well be in a period of real deflation.
I have recently decided not to debate economics with people who say the numbers are fudged. To do so is a pointless exercise.
I could debate you on each of your points, but you don't believe the numbers are authentic so there is no point.
Ciao.
The publicly-available history of GDP revisions is not subject to debate, and that revision itself forms a significant portion of the fudge.
Also, it's not just about "not believing" numbers, as you suggest, it is about looking at those numbers that most realistically reflect economic and social activity--and none of the unemployment numbers are in that class.
Maserati,
I generally agree with your view of the state of our economy. The of unfunded entitlements and mounting social liabilities is clear and well documented, but both parties lack the will to make the hard decisions. Similarly corporate America plays games with non-GAAP accounting, stock buybacks, IPOs, mergers, acquisitions, spin-offs that benefit a few with little long term shareholder value. Unfortunately we the people bare most of the blame for not asking enough questions and expecting accountability. Common sense would rule in a perfect world but more often than not fantasy beliefs rule the day. Take for example the $4 trillion on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, most readers of this thread never recognize this as a threat to their financial security. Or, the trillions of dollars in unfunded entitlements, pensions and social promises. Yet one can do back of the envelope math to see it doesn't add up. I am hopeful we reach a point where the hard decisions are forced on us before we reach the breaking point of social collapse.
Igy
So because GDP (and other) figures get revised, they must be fudged? What kind of stupid logic is that?
Historical changes to what is included, not the periodic revisions that they undertake throughout the year.
Sally V wrote:
So because GDP (and other) figures get revised, they must be fudged? What kind of stupid logic is that?
Hey, you knocking my logic? You must be one of them.
Fake Maserati.
Pointing Out the Obnoxious wrote:
Fake Maserati.
Everyone knows that's you, Ghost.
Not me.
Igy
Fake Igy.
No, I think it is the real Igy.
I think it is a fake POTO.