Right back at you--don't confuse talent and luck.
I have repeatedly said on this thread that I believed the markets to have been highly-priced at the level at which I got out, and that the rapidity of that rise, especially the 30% in 2013, was alarming and unsustainable. I have also discussed economic activity, fiscal policy, consumer spending, social conditions in various jurisdictions, and metrics and measures and their uses and manipulations, and gave my observations on the true level, nature, and quality of economic activity not only in the US, but elsewhere. Not only did I correctly predict the direction, I gave detailed reasons.
No, I don't know everything. Yes, there are factors in events that I have no doubt failed to consider. Yes, it is entirely possible that I have totally overlooked synergies. However, it is also possible that I was right for the right reasons, that I correctly considered the effects of dominant factors.
Fed statement coming up in a few minutes...