Sally, a savvy investor, say like your wife, would understand that is not a thorough analysis. Part of the decline in share price is the return of principal. Please congratulate your wife on the purchase of MSFT at 79 cents a share. Hopefully she was just as savvy in getting a pre-nuptial agreement.
I guess you can go with the Seeking Alpha research that noted the fund has been around less than one year, when in reality since 1986. Sally, please find this Morningstar report for your perusal, that is considerably more accurate.
I have been always a buy-and=hold investor. Fairly conservative with index funds and a number of stocks. But maybe 80% index funds. Agip had discussed this a few weeks back about just investing the high tech stocks which have been soaring.
Give me your thoughts on this ... Cashing out 25% of my investments and putting them all in the following:
AAPL
MSFT
NDIVIA
TSLA
AMZN
GOOG
I can handle a tough loss but I feel if 2 do poorly the others will make up for it.
I would do it incrementally, but that's just me.
My reservation is that each of these has already booked some serious appreciation.
My hunch is that Apple is perhaps the safest bet and Tesla offers the opportunity for a bigger run-up, and I say that based on the way they have been trading in the last few months. Nvidia could make some big moves up as well but all the AI hype may have run its course, and it does seem to be topping off as of late.
Microsoft is a real powerhouse with a wide range of income streams. I would say that one is the gem in disguise.
I checked how these have done since you considered buying them, Sally, on 6/28/23, and they have done extremely well. I hope you had gone ahead as planned and got them.
Nvidia +19%
Tsla +13%
Amazon +13%
Microsoft +10%
Apple - +0.2%
By comparison, the Nasdaq did +4% and S&P did 3%.
So, all of which were good investments, with Apple underperforming somewhat.
And Tesla still appears to be up even with its stock being reportedly slammed Thursday due to Elon Musk's, the primary shareholder and CEO of Tesla, making vial anti-Semitic remarks (link available upon request).
Buying when fear is high is often a good plan to deploy cash into stocks. Worked in August, even on a short 3m time test. So, everything is not different this time!
I'm wondering if we need some other fear indicator than the VIX...it was a low 18 on that day, which would not be a 'buy at a time of fear' signal.
Maybe the CNN Greed and Fear Index is a good candidate. It takes more into consideration. It showed 'fear' on that day.
In any case, SP500 +3.3% since then.
Seth Golden @SethCL Equity P/C Ratio jumped above 1.0 Wednesday. Here are the times in past 10 yrs, and the $SPX returns over the forward 3 months. (ex-ODTE Q4 2022) 100% of time higher 3 months later, but note the interim drawdowns.
Equity P/C Ratio jumped above 1.0 Wednesday.
Here are the times in past 10 yrs, and the $SPX returns over the forward 3 months. (ex-ODTE Q4 2022)
VIX is an extremely poor indicator of future returns, except when it gets quite high, when there becomes a relatively high chance of stronger than average future medium term returns. When VIX is less than about 30 there is absolutely no correlation with future returns at any time scale.
My reservation is that each of these has already booked some serious appreciation.
My hunch is that Apple is perhaps the safest bet and Tesla offers the opportunity for a bigger run-up, and I say that based on the way they have been trading in the last few months. Nvidia could make some big moves up as well but all the AI hype may have run its course, and it does seem to be topping off as of late.
Microsoft is a real powerhouse with a wide range of income streams. I would say that one is the gem in disguise.
I checked how these have done since you considered buying them, Sally, on 6/28/23, and they have done extremely well. I hope you had gone ahead as planned and got them.
Nvidia +19%
Tsla +13%
Amazon +13%
Microsoft +10%
Apple - +0.2%
By comparison, the Nasdaq did +4% and S&P did 3%.
So, all of which were good investments, with Apple underperforming somewhat.
And Tesla still appears to be up even with its stock being reportedly slammed Thursday due to Elon Musk's, the primary shareholder and CEO of Tesla, making vial anti-Semitic remarks (link available upon request).
Nice keeping up on that, Seattle. You have to wonder how the NASDAQ would have done without those 7.
I checked how these have done since you considered buying them, Sally, on 6/28/23, and they have done extremely well. I hope you had gone ahead as planned and got them.
Nvidia +19%
Tsla +13%
Amazon +13%
Microsoft +10%
Apple - +0.2%
By comparison, the Nasdaq did +4% and S&P did 3%.
So, all of which were good investments, with Apple underperforming somewhat.
And Tesla still appears to be up even with its stock being reportedly slammed Thursday due to Elon Musk's, the primary shareholder and CEO of Tesla, making vial anti-Semitic remarks (link available upon request).
Nice keeping up on that, Seattle. You have to wonder how the NASDAQ would have done without those 7.
“In the final confrontation, the village is freed but at a high cost. Among the seven, only Chris, Vin, and Chico survive the fierce battle.”
“At present, we estimate that the S&P 500 would have to decline to roughly 2630 for the expected 10-year S&P 500 total return to match the prevailing yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. A loss closer to the 1650-1730 area would restore historically run-of-the-mill expected returns and risk premiums. I know that seems preposterous, but it’s also how market cycles have typically been completed over time. Nothing in our discipline requires this outcome. As usual, we would describe these figures as historically-informed risk estimates rather than “forecasts.”
That said, valuations are long-term and full-cycle objects, and they often have little impact on market outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle. When investors are sufficiently inclined to speculate, they can even ignore valuations for years – indeed, that’s the only way that speculation can produce a bubble as extreme as we observe at present.”
Nice keeping up on that, Seattle. You have to wonder how the NASDAQ would have done without those 7.
“In the final confrontation, the village is freed but at a high cost. Among the seven, only Chris, Vin, and Chico survive the fierce battle.”
Igy, you should have stopped there. Quoting the respected and enduring Kurosawa film, The Magnificent Seven (1960, Oct.). Instead you go on to quote that hack Hussman just minutes later.
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
Current market valuations are consistent with negative expected returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 years, with a likely market loss of more than -60% in the interim. The proposition that “lower interest rates justi...
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
How much has the Fed Balance Sheet and Fed Deficit increased over that same period? Or, corporate and individual debt? But the economy is growing! :-)
if your point is that there was no way Hussman could have predicted that the US would use the power of the Federal Reserve balance sheet and federal deficit spending to support the economy, then you are insulting Hussman more than anything I have said! I mean that's freshman macro.
Hussman, Oct 2017. Market is up 80% in the 6 years since he wrote this, not including the dividend.
A century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more.
How much has the Fed Balance Sheet and Fed Deficit increased over that same period? Or, corporate and individual debt? But the economy is growing! :-)
The other seemingly forgotten piece of information was the corporate tax rates cut from 28% to 15%. That alone boosted S&P 500 revenue, while increasing deficit financing of Government expenditures. Then all the Covid handouts. Quite remarkable in the insanity of it all, but great for the short run benefit of the investor class.
Prior to 12/31/2017 S&P 500 GAAP EPS had never exceeded $110 a share over a 12 month period. Currently tracking at $180 a share. One is free to point to the wonderful new age economy without accounting for the real factors.
Prior to 12/31/2017 S&P 500 GAAP EPS had never exceeded $110 a share over a 12 month period. Currently tracking at $180 a share. One is free to point to the wonderful new age economy without accounting for the real factors.
So you misjudged.
Yet, some are able to admit they made a mistake.
Are you?
Or do we only get to hear the part about how and why the market will tank. And when it doesn't, how some perfectly legitimate factors prevented it from being so.
How much has the Fed Balance Sheet and Fed Deficit increased over that same period? Or, corporate and individual debt? But the economy is growing! :-)
if your point is that there was no way Hussman could have predicted that the US would use the power of the Federal Reserve balance sheet and federal deficit spending to support the economy, then you are insulting Hussman more than anything I have said! I mean that's freshman macro.
Last week an office building purchased in 2017 for $121 million sold for $60 million. Long duration Treasury bonds lost a similar amount during that period. Stocks are an asset of similar duration at 20-30 years. I have seen nothing that deters me from believing stocks will suffer a similar fate, perhaps worse. I have said, and I continue to believe 2,300, or the Covid low, is a near certainty. And the 3/2000 1,550 high, and the 1,575 10/2007 high are likely lows in a historic bear market, which I do expect.
Most posters here are quick to attack anyone that has a sober market view. Yet they are willing to give a pass to the Fed with their $Trillion balance sheet losses, and culpability in the inflation that hurts average Americans. Why, because the Fed seemingly buttered the investor’s bread? The lunacy of Government tax policy and spending fuels real wars, culture wars, corporate largesse, illegal immigration, and handouts to those that refuse personal responsibility . None of this madness comes with benign ending for the glamorous stock market. Sorry.
Here's a GS guy saying the SP500 would end 2023 at 4000, after starting the year at 3839, for a 4% gain.
As of 11/21/23, we're actually sitting on an 18% return, or 20.1% with the dividend.
Bad call so far. He seems to have not foreseen the jump in SP500 earnings we actually got.
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin: Lack of EPS growth will be a stock market highlight for 2023, this year was “all about painful de-rating.” 2023 will be less painful, but also no gain. 3mnth PT = 3600 6mnth PT = 3900 FY23 PT = 4000
11:00 AM · Nov 22, 2022
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
