I get that feeling like when covid emerged in early 2020 and those that sat back and waited for the customary pull-back for an entry point as markets rose were left in the rear view mirror until they finally acquiesced and bought in.
Interesting this time around in that Apple, which has been unstoppable up to now, seems to maybe reaching a ceiling?
I would be interested to know how to play the AI angle.
I heard Cathy Wood speak in person last week, and lordy how she markets the new technology and how it will revamp commerce as we know it. She did mention Google/Alphabet by name and I think that and Microsoft might be in that space.
the irrationality of the stock market is why it's so fascinating and so miserable.
year to date:
Vanguard Growth Index: +22%
Vanguard Value Index: -2%
it's so absolutely absurd.
Yeah, but but but....
It does tie into the notion of higher interest rates and there differing effects they have upon growth stocks as opposed to more blue-chip companies.
As Fed starting raising the rates, Growth got hammered (since their profitability lies off in the future when interest rates would presumably cut into their revenues). But now, rates are topping off and even talk of easing later in the year, so tech. rebounding. And with the pesky threat of a recession, the smaller companies probably look particularly vulnerable.
And there's just a sense that the sector that never seemed to offer a decent point of entry finally offered up one after the trouncing it took last year.
the irrationality of the stock market is why it's so fascinating and so miserable.
year to date:
Vanguard Growth Index: +22%
Vanguard Value Index: -2%
it's so absolutely absurd.
Yeah, but but but....
It does tie into the notion of higher interest rates and there differing effects they have upon growth stocks as opposed to more blue-chip companies.
As Fed starting raising the rates, Growth got hammered (since their profitability lies off in the future when interest rates would presumably cut into their revenues). But now, rates are topping off and even talk of easing later in the year, so tech. rebounding. And with the pesky threat of a recession, the smaller companies probably look particularly vulnerable.
And there's just a sense that the sector that never seemed to offer a decent point of entry finally offered up one after the trouncing it took last year.
I hear what you are saying and it's not wrong.
But I remember when I was young the elders shouted at us 'sell value stocks when interest rates rise! Why would someone buy a risky equity for a dividend when they could get the same dividend from a safe bond???
but in 2022 it went the opposite direction. the market decided that higher interest rates means BUY dividend stocks because of what you said.
People and markets are so irrational.
Now watch regression and we go the other way for 6 months. For no good reason.
Although I have to say AI seems to be a real reason for tech bullishness....this seems to be something that will move money to tech businesses for a while. Doesn't feel like a fad to me.
Dems gave up something but brought out a big bat in case they need it.
NYT:
Democrats have backed off their demand for a “clean” debt limit bill — raising it without conditions — and are now saying instead it would take bipartisan legislation to avoid default. Senator Chuck Schumer says he and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, their party’s chamber leaders, are “committed” to getting a bipartisan bill done. The number of legislative days Congress has left to act is dwindling fast.
House Democrats are prepared to activate an emergency plan they have been readying for months to try to steer around opposition from Republican leaders and force a vote to raise the debt limit. Called a discharge petition, the plan would need support from at least five Republicans to reach the necessary threshold of 218.
Dems have begun collecting signatures for the discharge petition. Which will, I hope, light a fire under McCarthy to get a deal done. He wants to remain in charge of the House, but if he loses five reps...he probably loses his speakership.
In any case, I think this is good for the markets. Politicians act when under pressure and here's the pressure. In addition, the house and senate are scheduled to close up shop soon and they hate being recalled to DC. SO that's another pressure to get something done.
WSJ
WASHINGTON—House Democrats plan to begin collecting signatures Wednesday for a discharge petition to raise the debt ceiling, a long-shot parliamentary maneuver designed to circumvent House Republican leadership and force a vote. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D., Pa.), the top-ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said he plans to initiate the petition in the well of the House when the chamber gavels into session at 10 a.m. and be the first to sign. “We only have two weeks to go until we may hit the x-date,” he said, referring to possible default. “We must raise the debt ceiling now and avoid economic catastrophe.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) sent a “Dear Colleague” letter Wednesday morning backing the petition effort. Jeffries cited the “urgency of the moment” and said it was important to pursue all legislative options in the event that negotiators are unable to reach any agreement.
“It is imperative that Members make every effort to sign the discharge petition today, which will be available at the Clerk’s desk on the House Floor beginning at 10 a.m.,” he wrote.
another point on the debt crisis...An analyst I respect says the X day may not actually be for months...maybe in to August. Which is bittersweet if it lets politicians drag this out for months.
Massive reversal from 2022's value beating growth by a mile.
Good days for Seattle - kudos to you.
rough days for me. I'm a terrible tech investor - 2000-2 burned me too badly to believe in that stuff. But here we are.
One guess who clicked the upvote for this post of yours.
Thx.
Been adding to positions in tech ETF and to Nividia holding. Watching for a favorable price to get out of SJNK as you touched upon yesterday. I'm slightly underwater (just barely) on that one and would like to get out at a break even point if possible.
Someone gave me recommendation on Synopsis, (SNPS) and that looks attractive, esp. longer term as it has the same upsides but less of the systemic risk of the chip manufacturers like Nividia. I got a little, but the momentum still seems to be with the NVDA, both on the upside and downside.
Have you seen how decimated small caps have been for the last few days? Maybe just sector rotation back into tech. Really, with hints of rate hikes easing, tech would inordinately benefit and maybe this is just a reversal of their getting beat up do badly during the rate hikes of the last 15 months.
From 2 months ago when I hyped Synopsis. Announced earnings today and favorable forward guidance, currently up over 8%.
More bearish and wrong sentiment. Sounds like a lot of money went bearish a month ago and part of this month's rally is short covering. It's been sort of slow motion but unrelenting. Lots of portfolio managers on their back foot throwing in the bear towel and buying tech trying not to fall even further behind so early in the year.
From April 19 2023ish, two bits of forecasting to go short. We're up 1.4%ish since then.
Game of Trades @GameofTrades_ Smart money is using this SP500 rally to go short History shows they time the markets well
Game of Trades @GameofTrades_ Equity put/call ratio is signaling that investors have loaded up on calls Current levels have timed market declines throughout the ongoing bear market