Contrarian indicator alert
Contrarian indicator alert
Last guy that posted that ate it days later.
Igy - Hussmann Strategic is off to a really bad start for beginning of the year. Down below 7 and maybe go much lower. The Dow, S & P and Nasdaq are off to a rocking start. Igy, the train leaves the station soon - we would love to have on board but you have to purchase your boarding pass and hop on board. 2023 is going to be rocking for the markets. Last call Igy - please come hop on - we would love to have you!
Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Hussman in 2013 using valuation to determine the next 10 years of return:
"At today’s levels, Hussman estimated that stocks will average
approximately 3.5% annually over the next decade."
narrator: Stocks actually averaged 12% annually for that decade.
But yeah people still listen to him. Insane?
Seriously? What would you expect from a guy with a 75 IQ? I mean, really!
Don’t flatter yourself.
Oh, no flattery would ever come from you.
FAX even outperforming NASDAQ YTD up 9.79%, EMD a little less at above 6%….iLOL
Igy - Hussmann Strategic having a bad start to new year. Does it bounce back or stay steady in its decline? Oh by the way, NASDAq IS ROCKING!
the 2022 4Q data are strong. GDP, employment, etc. All good.
But the 2023 data are starting to look pretty sick and indicicative of a recession.
The macro guys are freaking out, selling everything. Maybe holding long term bonds, thinking they will do ok when the economy craters.
stocks are rising and the sellers seem to have vanished. So the technical analysis people are getting bullish, thinking the October lows were THE lows and we're done now. And even tech has been bouncing.
Maybe we'll get some answers on Thursday when we get a read on 4Q GDP and GDP now flips to predicting the 1Q. I suspect the 1Q23 GDP Now prediction will begin at a very low or even negative number.
I've been eyeing an interesting fund: TAIL.
It owns things that should do well in a recession: bonds and puts on the stock market.
It will normally lose money but should make money if stocks fall and interest rates fall.
Might be just the thing if we do have a recession. Although if inflation stays high during the recession TAIL would not work well because it would lose money on bonds, which is most of its portfolio. For example, it lost money in 2022 because while its puts made money, its bonds lost more.
The name of the fund refers to 'tail risk' so you can see it's not meant to make money except in bad times.
HFND is also interesting. it's meant to mimic hedge fund returns without the high fees. Its thesis is that hedge funds do beat the market on a risk adj basis, but the high fees make them big losers. So keep the gross returns, drop the high fees, and maybe it's a good alternative investment. I already own this one.
I sold 10% of my HSGFX holdings early December, and received a 1% capital gain year end. I believe the fund is down less than 2% YTD, as bet with you I believe it will substantially outperform the NASDAQ in 2023. I suspect investors are being sucked into another bear market rally. Time will tell, and that opinion applies to my EM CEFs.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer was Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 was in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remained in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week was India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
NASDAQ down more than 1.25% two hours till opening
So Hussman thought stocks would average 3.5% annually over last decade.
Instead, Stocks actually averaged 12% annually over the last decade.
Meanwhile, $20,000 worth of Husssman Strategic 10 years ago is now worth about $12,800 now. Ouch!