Amid a fast, furious clearing rally - in which our measures of market internals remain ragged and divergent - keep in mind that the current S&P 500 price/revenue multiple of 2.56 remains higher than any market valuation observed in US history prior to Oct 2020. Some arithmetic: https://t.co/N7izD8jE1hpic.twitter.com/EXLq21cMuP
— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) May 27, 2022
No one mentioning the fact that inflation is going down? Personal consumption expenditures came in lower and it's looking like inflation is starting to settle. Fed likely only needs to raise rates a bit more to around 2.5%. Unemployment remains historically low and consumers continue to spend money.
No one mentioning the fact that inflation is going down? Personal consumption expenditures came in lower and it's looking like inflation is starting to settle. Fed likely only needs to raise rates a bit more to around 2.5%. Unemployment remains historically low and consumers continue to spend money.
Stocks only go up from here
Kind of what I was thinking, though that's not a guarantee. If inflation DOES mellow out, the Fed can cool down on the rate hikes, and I don't see any reason why the market won't start climbing again. Kind of kicking myself for not buying in more when the S and P was down 18+ percent, though I suppose we're only a couple percentage points off that... Still feel like there's a chance we go lower still.
No one mentioning the fact that inflation is going down? Personal consumption expenditures came in lower and it's looking like inflation is starting to settle. Fed likely only needs to raise rates a bit more to around 2.5%. Unemployment remains historically low and consumers continue to spend money.
Stocks only go up from here
You left out the second half of my correct Memorial Day stock market rally prediction. The bear market resumes this summer falling to 3,200-3,400, the pre-pandemic highs. Consumers are spending their savings as inflation eats into their budgets. Inflation may have peaked, but it is naive to believe real inflation does not remain persistently high. Corporations will begin to pre-announce earnings short falls, and the market multiple will contract as a result. This severe bear market will lay to rest your foolish meme that “stocks only go up.”
People should NEVER have a "hot hand right now." That just means they aren't investing as they should.
meh
first off this is a discussion board for opinions on the stock market. so when opinions on the stock market turn out to be correct, the opinionator should be kudo'd.
second of all, many/most of us are commenting on just a portion of our net worth...just our 'trading account.' So having a hot hand in a trading account is mostly the point.
But sure, agree with your major point, that taking the advice of someone with a 'hot hand' is probably not a great idea because that means he makes large directional bets that will not always be winners and in fact can cause large losses subsequently.
Having a "hot hand right now" is just luck. No kudos should be extended.
No one mentioning the fact that inflation is going down? Personal consumption expenditures came in lower and it's looking like inflation is starting to settle. Fed likely only needs to raise rates a bit more to around 2.5%. Unemployment remains historically low and consumers continue to spend money.
Stocks only go up from here
Kind of what I was thinking, though that's not a guarantee. If inflation DOES mellow out, the Fed can cool down on the rate hikes, and I don't see any reason why the market won't start climbing again. Kind of kicking myself for not buying in more when the S and P was down 18+ percent, though I suppose we're only a couple percentage points off that... Still feel like there's a chance we go lower still.
So what if it goes lower still? Get started on your S & P buying ASAP! Don't miss out because the market IS going to rebound just a matter of when and it looks like this rebound is going to happen relatively quickly. Don't miss out on making 1000s on buying when the market took a big hit.
No one mentioning the fact that inflation is going down? Personal consumption expenditures came in lower and it's looking like inflation is starting to settle. Fed likely only needs to raise rates a bit more to around 2.5%. Unemployment remains historically low and consumers continue to spend money.
Stocks only go up from here
You left out the second half of my correct Memorial Day stock market rally prediction. The bear market resumes this summer falling to 3,200-3,400, the pre-pandemic highs. Consumers are spending their savings as inflation eats into their budgets. Inflation may have peaked, but it is naive to believe real inflation does not remain persistently high. Corporations will begin to pre-announce earnings short falls, and the market multiple will contract as a result. This severe bear market will lay to rest your foolish meme that “stocks only go up.”
What were you saying when the market had taken a HUGE hit during the height of the pandemic and I promised that the market would go from around 18,500 to 30,000 by the end of August (and it did!). What were you saying back then? I am pretty sure you were saying that the market would fall much, much lower.
I finally found one thing I agree with Hussman about - that 100% of crypto market cap is speculative (actually I would say 80% of it is speculative is 20% of it is momentum based).
Having a "hot hand right now" is just luck. No kudos should be extended.
This coming from the blowhard claiming to have beat the Dow 32 years out of 33. Priceless!
Flagpole a blowhard, you must be jesting. 😹
Meanwhile on Bitcoin:
At this point, any presentation of bitcoin as an inflation hedge, crisis protection, transactional currency, or repository of value is purely hallucinatory & deserves locking up the perpetrator to prevent further self-harm.
Having a "hot hand right now" is just luck. No kudos should be extended.
This coming from the blowhard claiming to have beat the Dow 32 years out of 33. Priceless!
Nope, not priceless. I definitely do NOT deserve any kudos and have said I am not a smart investor other than I am smart enough TO invest. Yes, luck has brought me that record. I am fully aware, and I have said so many times. This year so far though, I am getting destroyed by the Dow as I have documented.
You people all think of investing as a size of dick contest which is why you can't believe it when someone like me, who DOESN'T think of investing that way, couldn't care less how I do in the market against anyone else or if I COULD have done better if I did X or whatever.
I just put money in and leave it there and I have put more money in over time than what the experts say you need to do. I have long made sure to be well-diversified (but that came along after the early years) but with an aggressive bent. I do not own individual stocks, and I do buy like clockwork no matter the market. I have NEVER sold anything I've bought, and in the past I HAVE bought a lot more when the market tanked a lot, but I do not need to do that anymore.
So again, no kudos are warranted for me for doing so well against the Dow. Mostly random mutual fund picks in areas I want them to be in, that's it.
Kind of what I was thinking, though that's not a guarantee. If inflation DOES mellow out, the Fed can cool down on the rate hikes, and I don't see any reason why the market won't start climbing again. Kind of kicking myself for not buying in more when the S and P was down 18+ percent, though I suppose we're only a couple percentage points off that... Still feel like there's a chance we go lower still.
So what if it goes lower still? Get started on your S & P buying ASAP! Don't miss out because the market IS going to rebound just a matter of when and it looks like this rebound is going to happen relatively quickly. Don't miss out on making 1000s on buying when the market took a big hit.
The stock market has only been down for 5 months and people are calling bottom already? How soon we forget the market took 6 years to recover after 2008. Why is everyone so confident the bear market will reverse after just a few months this time?
So again, no kudos are warranted for me for doing so well against the Dow. Mostly random mutual fund picks in areas I want them to be in, that's it.
The chances of beating the Dow with "random mutual fund picks" in 32 of 33 years are almost precisely equal to zero. Either you are lying (and I know, I KNOW, you keep telling us, you never lie) or you don't understand how to calculate returns, which is, admittedly, very difficult when you are adding to your portfolio throughout the year.
Here's the scenario I imagine in which you "beat the Dow" in any given year:
- you start the year on 1 January with $100k
- in February, May, June, August, October and November, you add $1.5K, $0.5k, $3k, $1k, $2k and $0.5k (for a total of $8.5k new purchases of "random mutual finds" into your portfolio that year)
- on 31 December your portfolio is worth $118k
- the Dow produced 16% returns that year
- your portfolio is 18% higher at the end of that year
- deeply satisfied with yourself, you declare that, once again, by some strange mathematical miracle, having nothing to do with your investing prowess and OBVIOUSLY not worthy of kudos, you've "beat the Dow"