I posted a Fred chart that illustrated an opposite conclusion.How could eliminating potential buyers doing anything but influence demand, then prices? Like a brontosaurus with a bitten tail, the reactive brain of the housing market takes time to adjust to this new reality.
Investors tend to treat profit margins as if they're fixed, rather than cyclical and driven by factors like unit labor costs and subsidies. So bubble valuations can reach levels that are breathtaking on a margin-adjusted basis. We're still at levels never seen before August 2020. pic.twitter.com/fsaMIwhSUk
— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) May 19, 2022
I posted a Fred chart that illustrated an opposite conclusion. How could eliminating potential buyers doing anything but influence demand, then prices? Like a brontosaurus with a bitten tail, the reactive brain of the housing market takes time to adjust to this new reality.
Don't get me wrong, I think housing prices are set to decline, and higher interest rates won't help. In this case, though, I think this is maybe more about price normalization following the COVID shock-related jump in prices (i.e., reversion to, or oscillation about, the mean trend...).
I'm almost 100% sure we looked at a chart on here that showed almost no correlation over time between interest rates and housing market moves. Anyone else remember that? It sticks in my brain because it seemed so wrong (of COURSE interest rates should influence prices, right?!?), but when I dug into it, it seemed to hold up under (weak, anyway) scrutiny.
Probably I'm losing my marbles and that never happened... :-)
Don't get me wrong, I think housing prices are set to decline, and higher interest rates won't help. In this case, though, I think this is maybe more about price normalization following the COVID shock-related jump in prices (i.e., reversion to, or oscillation about, the mean trend...).
I'm almost 100% sure we looked at a chart on here that showed almost no correlation over time between interest rates and housing market moves. Anyone else remember that? It sticks in my brain because it seemed so wrong (of COURSE interest rates should influence prices, right?!?), but when I dug into it, it seemed to hold up under (weak, anyway) scrutiny.
Probably I'm losing my marbles and that never happened... :-)
Why did housing prices during Covid lockdowns and jobs and business losses?
Don't get me wrong, I think housing prices are set to decline, and higher interest rates won't help. In this case, though, I think this is maybe more about price normalization following the COVID shock-related jump in prices (i.e., reversion to, or oscillation about, the mean trend...).
I'm almost 100% sure we looked at a chart on here that showed almost no correlation over time between interest rates and housing market moves. Anyone else remember that? It sticks in my brain because it seemed so wrong (of COURSE interest rates should influence prices, right?!?), but when I dug into it, it seemed to hold up under (weak, anyway) scrutiny.
Probably I'm losing my marbles and that never happened... :-)
I think it is pretty clear buyers purchase a monthly housing payment. I suppose one could argue the interest rate component weighs less influence on price, and more on payment.
I’m actually liking these drops, seeing as my time horizon is probably a few years at least. Just need more cash to buy.
Luckily I don’t think we’re close to “blood in the streets” yet.
Jeez, wish I actually went hard into that initial XLE play that iggy threw out in Nov 2020. A pivot to inputs seems like the best move retrospectively going into 2022.
I’m actually liking these drops, seeing as my time horizon is probably a few years at least. Just need more cash to buy.
Luckily I don’t think we’re close to “blood in the streets” yet.
Jeez, wish I actually went hard into that initial XLE play that iggy threw out in Nov 2020. A pivot to inputs seems like the best move retrospectively going into 2022.
I’m actually liking these drops, seeing as my time horizon is probably a few years at least. Just need more cash to buy.
Luckily I don’t think we’re close to “blood in the streets” yet.
Jeez, wish I actually went hard into that initial XLE play that iggy threw out in Nov 2020. A pivot to inputs seems like the best move retrospectively going into 2022.
You’ll got your opportunity when the market bottoms. Everything will get hit. Probably winter or spring next year.
Outperforming the 30% leverage, looks like. That is the way Closed End Funds operate. But you never understood anything but trolling nonsense.
LOL you must be insane. “Outperforming its leverage”! At negative earnings! Oh by the way, there’s nothing to say that the decrease in payouts won’t be the result of reduced net investment income, rather than the result of decreased return of capital. Brilliant management!
Have fun with your bs LOL
Just in case you missed it, EMD up 1.34% today. All green and then some on my investment.
LOL, fake debt- and buyback-fueled fund that is losing money. It is on artificial life support, and already returning equity to shareholders, while still just marginally above atl’s.
LOL, fake debt- and buyback-fueled fund that is losing money. It is on artificial life support, and already returning equity to shareholders, while still just marginally above atl’s.
if the market bounces back quickly, this is the sort of thing we'll look back and say 'omigod how did I get so scared and not remember the fundamentals?'
FactSet @FactSet From Jan. 3 though May 12, the price of the $SPX declined by 17.5% while the forward 12-month EPS estimate increased by 6.1%.
LOL, fake debt- and buyback-fueled fund that is losing money. It is on artificial life support, and already returning equity to shareholders, while still just marginally above atl’s.
By your own standards, a complete fraud.
Hypocrite! LOL
You are LOL alright.
You ate the big one on this, Obsessed Troll.
LOL EMD down to .8% up, and falling—and that’s only on the day. It’s underperforming the NDQ and massively underperforming ARKK😂
Eat THAT, moran. You act like a petulant 5-year-old LOL