At some point, in my view sooner rather than later, the "buy on the dip" mentality fades as a bad strategy.
At some point, in my view sooner rather than later, the "buy on the dip" mentality fades as a bad strategy.
You don't see anything real, paranoid one.
I am not baiting Flagpole. We hear 15% correction talk all the time, and even that is disputed (I think reasonably) by many, therefore a 5% dip would seem like a real opportunity.
5% is not nothing, especially in the recent environment. I will definitely be buying, the only question is what, and how much.
To me, 5% is giant.
Also agip, what do you take from the drop in small caps?
Mentee wrote:
Also agip, what do you take from the drop in small caps?
not much - down either 4.5% (VB) or 5.4% (IWM)
just the market doing what it is the market does
agip wrote:
Mentee wrote:Also agip, what do you take from the drop in small caps?
not much - down either 4.5% (VB) or 5.4% (IWM)
just the market doing what it is the market does
.
Small caps "always" leads the market, at least that is what someone posted last week. Well in this case it is going the wrong direction from what this poster intended.
I would also like to ask about whether it is a good buying opportunity. I just got a call from my advisor suggesting that I might want to be buying, only the 2nd time he has ever called me unsolicited. That kind of thing makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up, although he is my advisor, it is not by choice. I don't follow daily like many of you, but the last time I looked the dow was at 18k, I just looked now and it is around 17.5k. I don't know what to think.
Frank W. wrote:
I would also like to ask about whether it is a good buying opportunity. I just got a call from my advisor suggesting that I might want to be buying, only the 2nd time he has ever called me unsolicited. That kind of thing makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up, although he is my advisor, it is not by choice. I don't follow daily like many of you, but the last time I looked the dow was at 18k, I just looked now and it is around 17.5k. I don't know what to think.
very few people are able to pick buying opportunities.
you should have an investing plan and stick to it
not be opportunistic here and there
a few pages ago we were following a poster who successfully timed the market around 10 times in a row - that was awesome and rare. But if you are a long term investor you shouldn't be trying to time the market.
ask him if he would prefer you had a long term investment plan or if you should try to time the market.
I will pass on any personal advice. However, the market is not cheap by any standard. Anyone that tells you different is not informed. Stocks are representative of a cash flow that can be analyzed and valued.
agip and ghost, thanks. I was going to buy more this year in any event, so it's just a question of whether I buy now, or wait. Nothing specific, just a broad-spectrum of individual SP500 stocks I am looking at. So yes it's timing, but since I was going to buy anyway, I have to buy sometime, meaning that it will be timing whenever I buy in.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
the market is not cheap by any standard. Anyone that tells you different is not informed. Stocks are representative of a cash flow that can be analyzed and valued.
eh
not necessarily
if you take into a account today's very low interest rates the market can be called cheap.
I'm not saying I think the market is cheap - I'm just saying that there are informed people who think the stock market is in fact cheap.
or...YES there is a standard to call teh market cheap.
well most indices are now at or below the 200 day moving average
I will have to put up or shut up soon - I am supposed to sell some amount of stocks if the market is 2% below the 200 day on the 10th day of July.
In the last two financial downturns the Federal Reserve kept cutting interest rates as the market continued to fall. The dividend discount model has poor predictability. So if you want to use that model go ahead.
John Hussman has a commentary track record that goes back longer than any other source I know. Hussman backs up his thoughts with data. He will publicly admit to his errors. Feel free to ignore one of the most thoughtfull market commentators if you like. I agree with his analysis that the market extremely overvalued.
You like Hussman because he tells you what you want to hear. You are the poster boy for confirmation bias.
formatting is awful, but these are the cheapest countries to invest in right now by a few CAPE type measurements:
MSCI Standard Indices
CAPE CAPD CAPCF CAPB Average Rank
Greece 2.10 5.00 1.20 0.30 1.00
Portugal 8.10 13.40 3.40 1.00 3.75
Russia 4.90 27.60 3.30 0.70 5.00
Austria 8.50 23.80 3.40 0.80 5.25
Italy 11.10 19.20 4.10 1.00 6.25
Czech Republic 9.90 14.60 5.20 1.50 7.00
Brazil 9.20 20.70 5.80 1.30 7.25
Hungary 7.80 29.50 3.90 1.10 7.50
Poland 10.40 21.10 4.80 1.40 8.00
Spain 12.10 19.50 5.90 1.60 10.50
Norway 11.70 27.90 6.40 1.80 14.00
New Zealand 15.00 18.70 7.70 1.90 14.25
and these are the most expensive - US is 2nd most expensive on the planet
Canada 19.40 42.10 10.40 2.20 29
Netherlands 18.90 42.90 12.10 2.30 32
Japan 28.30 80.80 10.80 1.80 33
Ireland 24.20 46.00 13.00 2.00 34
Indonesia 19.00 47.30 12.30 3.40 35
Sweden 20.60 43.70 14.60 2.90 36
South Africa 20.60 43.70 14.40 3.20 36
Mexico 21.70 70.10 11.70 3.10 37
Switzerland 22.20 46.50 16.90 3.00 38
Philippines 23.90 67.70 15.20 3.40 40
U.S. 25.40 72.30 15.10 3.40 41
Denmark 38.20 122.50 23.00 4.50 43
Interesting data and makes sense to me.
nice 1.8% rally in a couple hours
cue talk of the plunge protection team...
Well it is not Sally Poto and her ETrade account moving the market. It is big money managers goosing the the system with buys on the index. Those same managers will sell the index at first opportunity. So much for the buy and hold strategy that is the fiction of Wall Street.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well it is not Sally Poto and her ETrade account moving the market. It is big money managers goosing the the system with buys on the index. Those same managers will sell the index at first opportunity. So much for the buy and hold strategy that is the fiction of Wall Street.
Could you clarify what you mean by the portion of your statement that I bolded above?