Down goes the Dow

I’m in leveraged ETFs

Ok now this is the way to enter a Friday close.

Beers in an hour, and I’m not paying. Hopefully I won’t crash my bike riding back.

So the day before yesterday it was cold, and my running routes were icy/crappy, so I decided to do a treadmill 10k

I set it to my usual 8.5 mph to start off, and searched for some music that I knew I would need, if I wanted to finish.

And I found it! A full hour of looped original Hawaii Five-O theme!😂😂😂. It’s on YT.

Beat that for insanity. The cadence was a bit slow esp when I sped up, but I stuck to it exactly! Moran!

A good weekend to you all

that sound you hear is a bunch of ticked off shorts.

At noon the market starts its traditional fall into the close, gives up its big morning gains to almost flat on the day.

'Ah hah! Time to short the market to kingdom come!

Instead, the market took off to the sky, gains 2% in less than two hours and got within a hair of the highest level of the week. Being short ain't easy.

On the week a gain of around 1% for the SPX. After all that roller coastering. You look at your portfolio on Jan 21 and then again on Jan 28 you don't see much change at all and say it must have been a quiet week on Wall Street.

THIS is why watching financial news gets you bad results. You see the big headlines, you get scared, you do things on impulse.

Maser wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

I honestly don't get the Cramer hate/obsession some people have. He's just a talking head on a show that has literal bells, whistles, flashing lights, and goofy noises.

It'd be like hating your local circus clown

Yep, I hate local circus clowns, too.

It’s an instinctive reaction. Whenever I see Cramer’s lips move, I want to smash my fist into them to make them stop. And I have never even followed his sycophantic bs.

Clowns, well I just run away from them🏃

You how how often I think of circus clowns, let alone devote enough energy to hating them?

This much:

*poof*

agip wrote:

that sound you hear is a bunch of ticked off shorts.

At noon the market starts its traditional fall into the close, gives up its big morning gains to almost flat on the day.

'Ah hah! Time to short the market to kingdom come!

Instead, the market took off to the sky, gains 2% in less than two hours and got within a hair of the highest level of the week. Being short ain't easy.

On the week a gain of around 1% for the SPX. After all that roller coastering. You look at your portfolio on Jan 21 and then again on Jan 28 you don't see much change at all and say it must have been a quiet week on Wall Street.

THIS is why watching financial news gets you bad results. You see the big headlines, you get scared, you do things on impulse.

The mantra among shorts has been short any relief rally. it looks like they gave it a shot midday, stocks dipped, but didn't crumble, and then shorts starting closing out positions before the end of the day and week, as they are wont to do, and longs took the bait on a possible juicy entry point.

Its still too early to tell if this rebound has legs, imo.

One thing to consider is that even if we have reached capitulation in terms of the sell-off, what would be the driver for appreciation going forward, and is it going to be anything like the support we've been getting from the Fed, (that we won't have the luxury of anymore).

Maser wrote:

Ok now this is the way to enter a Friday close.

Beers in an hour, and I’m not paying. Hopefully I won’t crash my bike riding back.

So the day before yesterday it was cold, and my running routes were icy/crappy, so I decided to do a treadmill 10k

I set it to my usual 8.5 mph to start off, and searched for some music that I knew I would need, if I wanted to finish.

And I found it! A full hour of looped original Hawaii Five-O theme!😂😂😂. It’s on YT.

Beat that for insanity. The cadence was a bit slow esp when I sped up, but I stuck to it exactly! Moran!

A good weekend to you all

The Hawaii Five-0 theme, and don't we remember it well. Love those drum flourishes, and the horns with that Tijuana Brass kind of sound, though a bit more punchy.

So, a treadmill guy, huh?

'Book 'em, Dan-O'

yeah the 1Q GDP print will be back toward 2% so that fun is over with.

I suppose it will have to be old fashioned fundamentals - corporate earnings growth and increasing dividends.

That bad, huh?

Maybe I'll take up the treadmill.

Q1 is gonna be huge. What is growth gonna look like, what's inflation gonna do, will wages go up, etc.

Lots of big questions to be answered

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah the 1Q GDP print will be back toward 2% so that fun is over with.

I suppose it will have to be old fashioned fundamentals - corporate earnings growth and increasing dividends.

Q1 is gonna be huge. What is growth gonna look like, what's inflation gonna do, will wages go up, etc.

Lots of big questions to be answered

SPY still finished below the 200MA. Still bearish if you trust charts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1487080988043849734?cxt=HHwWjMC5yfORlqMpAAAA

Hussman must have read my post a few days about this being a critical point… 😀

investing noob wrote:

SPY still finished below the 200MA. Still bearish if you trust charts.

you have to be careful when using ETFs for charting purposes...SPY is not the same as the SP500 because SPY pays out a dividend every quarter, which drops its NAV. Over time this will cause a sizable divergence between the charts of an ETF and its underlying index.

Using the actual index, according to Yahoo, the SP500 is almost exactly on the nose of its 200 day.

So the question now is whether the 200 day is resistance or support. I don't know obvi.

And it also shows the difficulty of using the 200 day as a sell indicator. If you sold you'd have to buy back now. Unless you work some fudging into your system.

doc idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1487080988043849734?cxt=HHwWjMC5yfORlqMpAAAA

Hussman must have read my post a few days about this being a critical point… 😀

More to the point, back to Sornette:

“crashes (Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette 2000), which uses methods from the theory of critical phase transitions in physics to provide a predictive framework for financial market crashes.4 This model is of particular interest because it aims both to predict and describe market-level phenomena – crashes – and to provide microscopic foundations that explain how that behavior can result from interactions between individual agents. More specifically, in addition to its predictive role, the JLS model aims to explain two “stylized facts” associated market crashes.5 The first is the fact that stock market returns seem to exhibit power law behavior in the vicinity of a crash”

agip wrote:

investing noob wrote:

SPY still finished below the 200MA. Still bearish if you trust charts.

you have to be careful when using ETFs for charting purposes...SPY is not the same as the SP500 because SPY pays out a dividend every quarter, which drops its NAV. Over time this will cause a sizable divergence between the charts of an ETF and its underlying index.

Using the actual index, according to Yahoo, the SP500 is almost exactly on the nose of its 200 day.

So the question now is whether the 200 day is resistance or support. I don't know obvi.

And it also shows the difficulty of using the 200 day as a sell indicator. If you sold you'd have to buy back now. Unless you work some fudging into your system.

Well if people said a month ago that SPY would be 442 today, they'd all be screaming crash. It doesn't feel bullish yet. Still holding 200 shares of SARK.

investing noob wrote:

agip wrote:

you have to be careful when using ETFs for charting purposes...SPY is not the same as the SP500 because SPY pays out a dividend every quarter, which drops its NAV. Over time this will cause a sizable divergence between the charts of an ETF and its underlying index.

Using the actual index, according to Yahoo, the SP500 is almost exactly on the nose of its 200 day.

So the question now is whether the 200 day is resistance or support. I don't know obvi.

And it also shows the difficulty of using the 200 day as a sell indicator. If you sold you'd have to buy back now. Unless you work some fudging into your system.

Well if people said a month ago that SPY would be 442 today, they'd all be screaming crash. It doesn't feel bullish yet. Still holding 200 shares of SARK.

I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Well if people said a month ago that SPY would be 442 today, they'd all be screaming crash. It doesn't feel bullish yet. Still holding 200 shares of SARK.

I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

So in other words we're in no man's land right now.