Down goes the Dow

investing noob wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It is pretty clear ARKK type stocks are not coming back. Many of these stocks will be down 90% before it ends. The belief that mega cap growth stocks can save the market ignores multiple expansion of 50% or more over the past five years. Government stupidity and Wall Street greed comeuppance has only just begun. As the nation’s wealth evaporates many will ask “all of this, for what?”

I'm up 25% on SARK now. Are you still holding? I think ARKK drops to 60 but maybe should take profit soon.

If ARKK goes to zero then would SARK max out at 60 (100% since inception)?

Your SARK call has been amazing.

Remember LQD, average maturity of corporate bonds is over 13 years. Cash and securities held by corps; AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc are short term. Rise in short term rates will generate more cash. Also, the companies Racket talks about are usually shut out from the bond markets. In cases such as PTON, they can issue convertibles which could lead to dilution in the future. PLTR and AI, 2 others he mentioned, have had secondary stock offerings to raise cash, again dilution.

Swaglord__69 wrote:

Thing with the Fed is.... if rates really do go up substantially, how does the US make debt payments? Either just print more money or substantially up tax collections, right? I highly doubt they go with the latter.

Some of the money printing would shift to selling bonds.

don't get it wrote:

Swaglord__69 wrote:

If you enjoy it, def 100% a fine use of time.

Is that another way if saying it's not worth it, monetarily?

Saying that imo maximizing monetary gain is not the best way to spend your limited time on Earth.

If you can invest time efficiently into understanding how to get solid gains for your money... that's pretty good.

I also think being "rich" is overrated. Most of the fun stuff in life is just meeting cool people and making whatever situation you're in fun and interesting. Money just lets you dictate your life and let that happen whenever. If I have 500k, I can live a decent life off the proceeds of that for at least 2 decades... that's pretty solid. Plus you're gonna want to work and produce something of value for your life after the age of 40. Who wants to be 45 and sitting in a chair drinking an alcoholic drink everyday talking to gold diggers. That's boring and lame af.

25.7 for full year 2021, 18.3 for fiscal year 2021 ( ended 9/30/2021 ). It was the best increase since 1977, which was due to fiscal year end change from 6/30 to 9/30. Next was 1969, LBJ's 10% surcharge. I've added outlays, 2020's increase was about the same as 1952 ( Korean War ).

Good night.

Swaglord__69 wrote:

don't get it wrote:

Is that another way if saying it's not worth it, monetarily?

Saying that imo maximizing monetary gain is not the best way to spend your limited time on Earth.

But that is the entire point of investing.

You might "enjoy" shuffling your money around but if it's not paying off monetarily it's a waste of time.

don't get it wrote:

You might "enjoy" shuffling your money around but if it's not paying off monetarily it's a waste of time.

I disagree, because it is an ongoing exercise. Even if you have been flat for 10 years, that work might pay off big one day.

I know a guy this happened to. He put lots of time in for years, not even matching his benchmark. Then based on his 14 years of activity he saw a play in oil, and went for it, big-time. He made his life’s fortune on that single event—after 14 full-time years of nothing. I think I wrote about him in this thread.

Btw sold all but $100 of my btc up around 39k.

I feel good. Only that trbcx is out there, taking a beating. Will hold it for at least 10-15 years, an homage to all the b&h’ers here. 🙏

Sometimes people ask me about my “strategies”, so I will say something here as well. Past 10 years have been mostly momentum investing, and going along for the ride with the highest-flyers has been great.

When I make a big score, I often cash out and bank a bit more than equivalent S&P gains would have been—ie if it is at 10%, I will bank 115% of principal, and double down with the rest. I have done this after obvious large rises.

Like this btc. Bought a bunch at 17k, sold enough at 34k iirc to get all my money back and beat S&P, and let the rest ride. Sold now up more than 100%, did not want to hold it past that 34k point. As far as my bets on such things go, it has been meh, I should have sold above 50, but I have been too busy with other things.

Twostitch wrote:

investing noob wrote:

I'm up 25% on SARK now. Are you still holding? I think ARKK drops to 60 but maybe should take profit soon.

If ARKK goes to zero then would SARK max out at 60 (100% since inception)?

Your SARK call has been amazing.

Thank you. I still hold SARK, but on a short leash.

I think HSGFX is a better hold for the next couple of years. Up 8% in 2022.

Bitcoin at $34,800……once it falls under $20k people will see they’ve been had…..

How about the folks buying decentralized land? Talk about craziness.

Reminder of how all this works:

S&P 500 total returns:

1 year +15%

3 years +73%

5 years +111%

10 years +303%

Nasdaq 100 total returns:

1 year +8%

3 years +117%

5 years +196%

10 years +549%

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bitcoin at $34,800……once it falls under $20k people will see they’ve been had…..

How about the folks buying decentralized land? Talk about craziness.

updated rainbow chart...almost a buy at this point by this logic.

But I'm still sort of cheering for the demise of NFTs, SPACs, Crypto. It's all so stupid.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bitcoin at $34,800……once it falls under $20k people will see they’ve been had…..

How about the folks buying decentralized land? Talk about craziness.

updated rainbow chart...almost a buy at this point by this logic.

But I'm still sort of cheering for the demise of NFTs, SPACs, Crypto. It's all so stupid.

sorry:

markets are often rocky in the weeks before earnings season.

This should settle things down. And earnings aren't inflation-adjusted, so there won't be any of that fuzziness.

34% rise in earnings. Think of that.

"Earnings are on track to rise 34% year-over-year for the quarter, based on actual results and estimates for companies that have yet to report, JPMorgan said, and revenue is poised to rise 12% year-over-year."

Well, that is Government subsidized earnings. Totally fake metric.

Bitcoin $34,375……

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bitcoin $34,375……

Down exactly 50% from highs now

agip wrote:

markets are often rocky in the weeks before earnings season.

This should settle things down. And earnings aren't inflation-adjusted, so there won't be any of that fuzziness.

34% rise in earnings. Think of that.

"Earnings are on track to rise 34% year-over-year for the quarter, based on actual results and estimates for companies that have yet to report, JPMorgan said, and revenue is poised to rise 12% year-over-year."

And a little further out, this is a midterm election year. I would expect that the powers that be would be hard pressed to clean up this mess in the markets and frets over inflation/interest rates by summer in preparation for that.

I know this is a big deal in the year of presidential elections, but I would think it would also come into play in midterm elections (?).

Nicely done.

If i interpret your strategy correctly, you are taking some profits after large rises, but only in so much as exceeds the commensurate rise in the S&P over the given timeframe + a few percent, and you let the rest ride. Sounds like a good strategy, but it does leave you still at risk in so far as the money remaining invested could lose a sum sufficient to offset the profits you had already taken off the table.

With this bitcoin, I just don't get it. I hear many thinking a total collapse can't happen. The $3,500 price stagnation just a few years ago is all too real in my memory.

I wonder how many coins are actually shorted. That is a very important metric to me in understanding its current price. I always thought bitcoin was virtually impossible to short sell, but I have come to find that some exchanges do offer that, and there are ways to do it via futures and options trading. Though, my hunch is that it is relatively rare because it's not that easy to access. but i don't definitively know.