Check out the gyrations in US airlines like AAL, UAL, DAL.
Not for the faint of heart. Insane.
Check out the gyrations in US airlines like AAL, UAL, DAL.
Not for the faint of heart. Insane.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Prof. Racket wrote:
Imagine citing YTD gains when there's only been like, what, 9 trading days in the whole year so far? lmao
More laughable is the belief that the past five years is anything representative of the investment future.
I'm going with the last five years as more prescient of the broad market going forward than are the last two weeks.
Markets fluctuate, and it is hard to read too much into what very well be just another bump in the road.
Maser wrote:
Check out the gyrations in US airlines like AAL, UAL, DAL.
Not for the faint of heart. Insane.
Pretty much why Buffett got out. They aren't value companies anymore.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More laughable is the belief that the past five years is anything representative of the investment future.
I'm going with the last five years as more prescient of the broad market going forward than are the last two weeks.
Markets fluctuate, and it is hard to read too much into what very well be just another bump in the road.
$Trillions in stimulus for failing business models and even profitable ones looks to be at an end. Interest rates going up and QE ending. I suppose spending to oblivion in the face of rising inflation is possible, or simply a deranged Fed with no backbone to curtail this nonsense. The weakest and most speculative investment performance agrees with me. As I said weeks if not months ago, the market will not crack until you see large cap growth broken, and down days on the order of 200-300 S&P 500 points.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm going with the last five years as more prescient of the broad market going forward than are the last two weeks.
Markets fluctuate, and it is hard to read too much into what very well be just another bump in the road.
$Trillions in stimulus for failing business models and even profitable ones looks to be at an end. Interest rates going up and QE ending. I suppose spending to oblivion in the face of rising inflation is possible, or simply a deranged Fed with no backbone to curtail this nonsense. The weakest and most speculative investment performance agrees with me. As I said weeks if not months ago, the market will not crack until you see large cap growth broken, and down days on the order of 200-300 S&P 500 points.
welcome back.
Thanks Seattle, have a good long weekend.
thanks, Igy. And you, too.
Digging this rally into the close.
Long live the bull market, stocks only go up, and stay tuned as we get ready to commemorate the good Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday!
Maybe I’ll get going caning that chair.
yeah, me, too. I am about half way through it. It's not as easy as it looks.
Had i known what i know now about how long it takes, I would have hired it out.
So this Russia invasion thing seems priced into energy but not really the markets as a whole?
Swaglord__69 wrote:
So this Russia invasion thing seems priced into energy but not really the markets as a whole?
Honestly, what is there to price in?
I do think an invasion would give China more motivation to try to invade Taiwan, and that would be really significant since Taiwan is a pretty big manufacturing and financial hub. So you'll certainly see things go south if that ramps up.
The US has basically admitted it's not gonna do anything and the only EU nation that could do something - Germany- has been too afraid of it's own shadow for the past 25 years, not to mention Russia pretty much has them by the balls with the whole nat gas thing.
CNBC says ARKK is going to 60. They're buying puts. This gives me more conviction in SARK.
investing noob wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/01/14/investors-bail-from-ark-innovation-fund-and-heres-the-best-way-to-do-it.htmlCNBC says ARKK is going to 60. They're buying puts. This gives me more conviction in SARK.
Impossible! I have it on good authority that Ms Woods is a stock-picking genius!
investing noob wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/01/14/investors-bail-from-ark-innovation-fund-and-heres-the-best-way-to-do-it.htmlCNBC says ARKK is going to 60. They're buying puts. This gives me more conviction in SARK.
the more financial TV you watch, the lower your returns will be.
=results from an actual study. I'm not making that up.
All for-profit media is trying to get your eyeballs so they can make more money.
The more you let them influence you the worse your investing results will be.
on our bets on whether death tolls this wave will exceed the prior wave...
In NJ, the 7 day average has matched the last wave
In NY it's close but not quite. Probably will get there.
I don't see any other states where the current death total is close to the prior wave. So that's good.
The question: Omicron has boosted deaths in NY and NJ to at or near the levels of the prior waves, despite being highly vaxxed places.
What happens when Omicron hits low-vax places? I don't see why deaths won't go higher than in the past. So many more people will get Omicron that even if it is less deadly than delta, many many will die.
agip wrote:What happens when Omicron hits low-vax places? I don't see why deaths won't go higher than in the past. So many more people will get Omicron that even if it is less deadly than delta, many many will die.
Maybe next week I'll share a graph I've made showing cumulative deaths since vaccines became widely available versus vaccination uptake by state. Those states will be hit harder than NY and NJ, guaranteed.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2021 (with 4% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
a short essay about whether or not the Fed's largesse is responsible for the big recent stock market returns.
not a great piece but Igy has brought this up a lot so anyone who is curious might find it interesting.
not a polemical piece so I don't want to cut and paste from it.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/is-the-fed-responsible-for-an-800-gain-in-the-stock-market/
agip wrote:
a short essay about whether or not the Fed's largesse is responsible for the big recent stock market returns.
not a great piece but Igy has brought this up a lot so anyone who is curious might find it interesting.
not a polemical piece so I don't want to cut and paste from it.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/is-the-fed-responsible-for-an-800-gain-in-the-stock-market/
Good perspective. More to the market than just the cutting of rates and buying of bonds.