Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1451496622123257882
Correlation is not causation.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1451496622123257882
Correlation is not causation.
thanks, I think.
FYI I have run my own business for around seven years.
But I'll point out of course that I'm sh/tposting on LRC without 90% of the facts.
Statman Caruthers wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1451496622123257882Correlation is not causation.
There is no correlation.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Statman Caruthers wrote:
Correlation is not causation.
There is no correlation.
😹
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=HfTla gente esta muy loca wrote:
Statman Caruthers wrote:
Correlation is not causation.
There is no correlation.
This one is even better😹
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.pdf?hires=1&type=application/pdf&bgcolor=%23e1e9f0&chart_type=line&drp=0&fo=open%20sans&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&height=445&mode=fred&recession_bars=on&txtcolor=%23444444&ts=12&tts=12&width=968&nt=0&thu=0&trc=0&show_legend=yes&show_axis_titles=yes&show_tooltip=yes&id=WALCL,SP500&scale=left,right&cosd=2004-04-10,2011-10-24&coed=2021-09-30,2021-09-30&line_color=%234572a7,%23aa4643&link_values=false,false&line_style=solid,solid&mark_type=none,none&mw=1,1&lw=2,2&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=a,a&fq=Weekly%2C%20As%20of%20Wednesday,Daily%2C%20Close&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&fgsnd=2020-02-01,2020-02-01&line_index=1,2&transformation=lin,lin&vintage_date=2021-10-22,2021-10-22&revision_date=2021-10-22,2021-10-22&nd=2002-12-18,2011-10-24Oh, but the Fed is going to taper. Don’t get scared they won’t, they can’t. #chickenfed
Tell me you don't know how to do regressions without telling me you don't know how to do regressions.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=I5WNhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=I5WRThe Pearson is -.039. I had to use biweekly ending Wed because scatter doesn't work on weekly, Weekly is -.01. The correlation is small but NEGATIVE!
Funny, Sven didn't bring this up for Sept and Aug. WE 8/18/2021 assets up $85.539 B; SP500 down 1.07%. WE 9/15/2021 assets up $91.456B and SP500 down .74%
Oh, my eyes were deceiving me. 😹
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh, my eyes were deceiving me. 😹
No, your ignorance was.
Good thing, I was worried about the taper. I am not worried now; I can sleep well. I’ll let Sven know of your regression analysis. 😹
Recent returns
3 months total return
BTC +82%
TSLA +40%
Dirty Energy +20
Momentum +7
Clean Energy +6
REITS +5
Div Strat +5
Value +5
Small Caps +5
Cons Disc +4
Tech +4
SP500 +4
Non US developed +2
global 60/40 +1
TIPS +1
Emerging -1
Gold -1
Treas -2
ARKK -3
GME -5
Hussman -5
China -9
Amusing to see ARKK and Hussman returning about the same. What are the odds of that?
The bigger US indices are grouping tightly...all around 4-5%, which are beating the world. Again. But no big leaders right now.
the TIPS vs Treasuries spread has to be getting to the end of its life. That's been one of my best long term bets...probably I need to spend a few days unwinding that one and getting back to neutral.
Emerging still in the bin.
Thanks, Agip. Really interested to see what the one-month returns shows. Tech rebounding lately so I would think they would do well. Small caps really lifted off it's bottoms as well so for the time being, i would think that would be reflected. Tesla, too.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Statman Caruthers wrote:
Correlation is not causation.
There is no correlation.
Word.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh, my eyes were deceiving me. 😹
No, your ignorance was.
Oh, snap!
I believe Boise real estate will mirror ARKK but not Hussman over the next couple of years:
Pretty good summary of the bull case. One of the strongest quarters on record, judging by positive earning surprises.
About 84% of companies have beaten earnings estimates for the third quarter, in line with the record levels seen in the prior two quarters. Earnings for those companies that have reported have gained a solid 32.7%. Companies have managed to deliver strong results due to the combination of price increases and cost cuts designed to combat anything but transitory inflation.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs notes of the 117 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far, 65% have exceeded consensus estimates by at least one standard deviation of those projections. This is a rate that if sustained, would rank among the strongest quarters on record behind the first and second quarters of 2021.
The share of companies reporting above-consensus revenues has also exceeded the historical average, says David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist.
Adds Kostin, "While managements and analysts remain cautious, markets have moved along with tentative signs of improvement from supply chain data and commodity prices."
Cathie Wood
@CathieDWood
Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year and, thanks to #EVs, now is in secular “decline”. Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that #Oilprices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off.
3:42 PM · Jul 15, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
When is the market correction coming? I have been hearing this for years. But it never comes. Instead the market keeps going higher and higher.
Greetings everyone, thought I would check in and say hi. For some reason my Maserati handle got banned from posting during my long absence, someone must have tried to hijack it or something.
Well, well...look at that 3-month list. The YTD list is good as well. Maybe someone will dredge up my last post on here, where I had reduced essentially to...BTC and TSLA. I am sure nobody here fully understands the inflation situation yet, either, but at least maybe now you acknowledge that there is in fact inflation.
With my RE and some vaulted micro-phyzz, it has been a great year. My problem is choosing domicile, and how to minimize tax burden--and it is a real PITA, going through int'l tax decisions, law, and treaties. Being a patent attorney, I never imagined that I would wind up interested in/dominated by tax law. Having a cultured wife, with expectations, is proving exceedingly complicated. I honestly think my life may have been better when I was poor. My health is still perfect, thankfully.
From here on, I will mostly just want to be left alone, and withdraw from broader society. I have been right about everything, and it is nerve-racking and somewhat depressing. I am stateside until mid-November to get some things done, then gone again.
Survey: where do we go from here? What happens to tech, oil, ag, the USD, etc? Looks like the feds might not get their tax proposals passed, will they become friendlier to coal, oil, and gas?
Hope you are all well, and that you are resisting the financial and monetary propaganda with which we are perfused.