NFTs are a store of value.😹
NFTs are a store of value.😹
Manufacturing really rolling. But GDP growth in the 3Q slowing dramatically. Still growing, just not at the madcap rates of the 1H.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods accelerated in August, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing even as economic growth appeared to have slowed in the third quarter because of shortages of raw materials and labor.
The Commerce Department said on Monday that factory orders increased 1.2% in August. Data for July was revised higher to show orders rising 0.7% instead of gaining 0.4% as previously reported. Orders have now increased for four straight months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders gaining 1.0%. Orders shot up 18.0% on a year-on-year basis.
The business of manufacturing all those NFTs and mining of Bitcoin is placing a strain on supplies and logistics. 😹
agip wrote:
Looks like NYC is the next Idaho
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1443892677846634518?s=20
Home prices appear to have peaked in the Boise area. In our neighborhood listings are lasting longer and facing price reductions, in some cases as much as 20%.
jecht wrote:
Market went down hard the last few weeks and I lost $4k in net worth. Ugh. I even put in $600/mo. into investments and it's all gone just like that.
Last year I made more money than any other year in my life despite being semi retired as I rode Tesla and Bitcoin.
This year I have lost more $$ in the market than I will make in earned income.
So I will likely have negative total income this year.
The Unkle wrote:
jecht wrote:
Market went down hard the last few weeks and I lost $4k in net worth. Ugh. I even put in $600/mo. into investments and it's all gone just like that.
Last year I made more money than any other year in my life despite being semi retired as I rode Tesla and Bitcoin.
This year I have lost more $$ in the market than I will make in earned income.
So I will likely have negative total income this year.
Well one could swap everything into Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) down -14% YTD and with 15% in Tesla and Coinbase. That way you are still in the hot. Plus you get another 85% diversified into the most innovative companies in America.
Or, swap it all into Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX) up 6% YTD betting most of what is promoted as investment is nonsense, and rather is a huge bubble destined to rock the Casbah. Admittedly this is one of the worst funds over the previous decade.
Past performance is not indicative of future result.
😹
The Unkle wrote:
jecht wrote:
Market went down hard the last few weeks and I lost $4k in net worth. Ugh. I even put in $600/mo. into investments and it's all gone just like that.
Last year I made more money than any other year in my life despite being semi retired as I rode Tesla and Bitcoin.
This year I have lost more $$ in the market than I will make in earned income.
So I will likely have negative total income this year.
how many rubles would that be?
Probably nobody is interested, but I thought I would take a look back at the SPX projections I made back in March 2018 (and which racket at least roundly criticized for being too wide to be of any value, which is no doubt true), first a long look over time from 1949 onward, then zoomed in from 2014 onward:
My expectation is that there is a needed unwinding of the crazy recent growth, and I won't be surprised to (still, as per my last share of these charts in January) close to 3400-3500 by the end of the year. Of course, anything can happen, but it looks to me like we could be in for an interesting ride.
Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 4, 2021. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 24.18%, France's CAC 40 is in second is with a gain of 16.68%, and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 14.49%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 11.73%.
A longer perspective from a different angle:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FA7-y7ZX0AIfX3z?format=jpg&name=large
I'm reading about SP500 earnings for next year....looks like at least $200 and possibly $220.
That would put the forward PE at 20-22.
I'm not so sure we should be worried about that kind of PE. Seems kind of....normal.
Some points from the JPM Guide to the Markets, just out for end Q3
We're in the longest period of US outpeformance vs. rest of the world....in our lifetimes. 14 years of this. Longesst before was around 6 years. So we are massively overdue...or it's different this time.
combine that with the largest ever PE discount for non-US stocks, and the fast GDP growth in europe right now...is pretty compelling for a EUR stock breakout. I might have to start buying there, as boring as it is.
forward PE for largest 10 US stocks in SP500: 29
forward PE for the smaller 490 is much lower: 19
That's an argument to buy the equally weighted Sp500. Which I do own.
US margins skyrocketing higher. I think they can stomach a little wage, COGS and tax inflation. Margins highest ever.
2006-2020: best performing strategy: Momentum.
worst strategy in 2021: Momentum.
Might want to keep an eye on that strategy and start allocating to it. I'll assume 2006-2020 was not a fluke
Household debt service lowest ever. Clearly US households are doing well. Assume they will spend money.
Real yield on US treasury lowest since around 1980. negative. But that might be a fluke of this short lived inflation spike.
quality of EM debt has doubled over 30 years. 10 year returns for EM bonds and stocks pretty close to each other. I think Racket was suggesting owning EM debt not equity. Maybe if mfgring is not gonna work anymore, equity is bad and debt is better. But evergrande. Hard one - what to do with EM.
In the US, duration for Corp debt has doubled over 30 years. that's the result of quality economic conditions I suppose - that bond buyers are fine with extended duration and believe inflation will be ok.
ripping and roaring earnings starting to bring down tech PEs despite being +14% year to date
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1445704220963848192?s=20
Some selected Year to Date returns
GME +813%
BTC +88
Energy +50
Commodity +44
Financials +32
REITS +23
High Dividend +20
Value +18
SP500 +17
Momentum +16
Tech +14
Small Caps +14
Cons discr +13
TSLA +11
Non US Developed +9
Emerging Ex China +7
Global 60/40 +6
Hussman +5
TIP S +4
Emerging +1
Treas -2
Gold -8
ARKK -12
Clean Energy -12
China -18
Old economy doing well - energy, banks, real estate, value, commodities.
Tech had a lead but gave it up over the last few weeks.
TIPS extending their lead over straight treasuries.
The high dividend strategy is interesting to me. I've been buying SCHD.
Check out EM ex china. Not too bad. CHina has been a big drag.
Dirty energy up 50%, clean energy down 12%. That's not going to last. One way or the other that will shrink.
What will it take for gold to get a rally going? With all the crazy going on gold just sits and does nothing. Coiled spring or dead asset class?
Add used cars to the list😹
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1446131839345651718
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2021 (with 21 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 16 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 15 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Alibaba is my next big buy
Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 11, 2021. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 25.94%, France's CAC 40 is in second is with a gain of 18.36%, and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 16.11%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 7.00%.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
adizero Road to Records with Yomif Kejelcha, Agnes Ngetich, Hobbs Kessler & many more is Saturday