My bitcoin investment up 24% plus today
My bitcoin investment up 24% plus today
Dow up 14.83% YTD
Flagpole up 14.37% YTD
Still behind, but catching up.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
well now China stocks are down 30% from their highs, going by the fund I prefer: CXSE.
If we go down 40% I think I have to buy back in...that's blood in the streets time.
Well I think I *should* buy back in at that point - if I do or not is an open question.
and the other thing...china crashing...does that affect the US market at all? Positive? Negative? I could argue both but probably more a net positive since that may direct even more flows this way.
But bad market behavior is contagious and can expose underlying rot, so plenty to worry about here.
Wow! China down a lot overnight.
will be an interesting day on our markets. And with some big tech announcing earnings after the close, nonetheless.
the china etf I prefer (but don't own) is now down 34% from highs
broad emerging market indices down 12%
US down less than a percent from 52 week highs
non-us developed down around 4% from 52 week highs
clearly the US is the big performer. You can almost hear the money flowing through undersea cables to our exchanges.
I have increased my (admittedly small) hedge...I mean come on. A china crash has to have some affect on US markets.
GMO is out with it annual 7 year forecast...no surprise that they are bearish. They forecast a -8% per year after inflation return for large cap US.
ok
Let's look at their 7 year forecast that just ended last month.
They forecast a -1% real return for the SPX.
In reality, now we know, we had:
12.5% raw return...add 2% for dividends to get to 14.5%...then subtract a couple points for inflation to get to 12.5%
GMO guessed: -1% per year
actual: +12.5% per year
but people are freaking out today because of GMO.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/granthams-terrifying-new-forecasts-11627061555?siteid=yhoof2
GMO is out with it annual 7 year forecast...no surprise that they are bearish. They forecast a -8% per year after inflation return for large cap US.
ok
Let's look at their 7 year forecast that just ended last month.
They forecast a -1% real return for the SPX.
In reality, now we know, we had:
12.5% raw return...add 2% for dividends to get to 14.5%...then subtract a couple points for inflation to get to 12.5%
GMO guessed: -1% per year
actual: +12.5% per year
but people are freaking out today because of GMO.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/granthams-terrifying-new-forecasts-11627061555?siteid=yhoof2
Six out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through July 26, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 18.5%, our own S&P 500 is in second is with a gain of 17.7%, and Germany's DAKX is in third with a gain of 11.2%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 3.8%.
“GMO was among the few firms to predict the 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 crashes. And each time, people laughed. The online chat rooms were different — 20 years ago it was Yahoo and Raging Bull—but the sound was the same.
In the event, the warnings GMO made in the late 1990s were remarkably accurate. It ranked 10 major asset classes by future investment performance, and got them pretty much in line. “The chances of getting that forecast exactly right were less than one in 500,000,” The Economist magazine calculated.”
I don't think I've ever been this frightened with the markets basically at all time highs.
Seeing china melt down so quickly is ah worrying.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“GMO was among the few firms to predict the 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 crashes. And each time, people laughed. The online chat rooms were different — 20 years ago it was Yahoo and Raging Bull—but the sound was the same.
In the event, the warnings GMO made in the late 1990s were remarkably accurate. It ranked 10 major asset classes by future investment performance, and got them pretty much in line. “The chances of getting that forecast exactly right were less than one in 500,000,” The Economist magazine calculated.”
GMO has predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets, no doubt.
They are a good example of the kind of firm that can't change. they decided in the late 90s that market were overvalued and to my knowledge has been bearish since.
They clearly did not make the pivot from 19c and 20c valuations to 21c valuations. They still think we will get back to a normal PE of 14 or 15. So they will be bearish until that happens I guess. And that will lead them to predicting some of the regular bear markets we will have.
I read once that grantham of GMP put all of his kids' retirement money in emerging markets. That has probably led to some tense family dinners over the last 11 years.
If you look at the positioning of most domestic index funds, I would assume there will be many tense family dinners in the future. And the topic will be more than the expensive cost of a liberal education.
Proof the Troll’s intellect and vocabulary has not advanced in over a year.
agip wrote:
I don't think I've ever been this frightened with the markets basically at all time highs.
Seeing china melt down so quickly is ah worrying.
big rebounds today for both EM and Small Caps.
Weathered earnings from Apple, Google, Microsoft. In light of all their run-ups, I can live with tepid earnings responses.
Mostly just breathing a sigh of relief that the sell-off on Tu. didn't have legs (as due as we are for a correction)....
all time highs
SP500
DJIA
And I'm still walking around terrified.
WTF this isn't fair.
all time highs
SP500
DJIA
And I'm still walking around terrified.
WTF this isn't fair.
agip wrote:
all time highs
SP500
DJIA
And I'm still walking around terrified.
WTF this isn't fair.
There's that saying about markets climbing a wall of worry. They climbed it this time, and have been up there long enough to be getting dizzy....
Bought SAM.