Down goes the Dow

holding the days and weeks gain into the Friday close.

This market just doesn't quit. I would think we are setting new all time highs.

Anyone else who is not amazed at how it's exceeding expectations, (mine included)?

seattle prattle wrote:

holding the days and weeks gain into the Friday close.

This market just doesn't quit. I would think we are setting new all time highs.

Anyone else who is not amazed at how it's exceeding expectations, (mine included)?

Always hard to measure sentiment...are people highly bullish now? Or scared as always?

I dunno.

I'm sure worried but not enough to reduce my stock allocation from its current 68%.

I did buy a small hedge - ticker TAIL, which should rise if the market falls.

One of the amazing things about the market is how small the corrections have been. 3% down feels like a terror-filled car crash. Lord knows what a real 10% correction will feel like. But obvi there is oceans of cash out there, and the entire world is leaning into the US stock market, given our massive GDP growth and willingness of the gummint to spend.

Sentiment: i would say long term bullish, with the case being that there are so few options for decent ROI besides the markets at this time, as Dr. Racket, PHD is apt to point out.

There are just some minor obstacles to full recovery like supply chain issues and the labor shortages, and when those clear themselves up, things could really heat up.

Fear of the downside: so true, and I am guilty of that as well.

Your 68% investment ratio sounds very prudent. That prompted me to run my numbers and as of today I am in to a level of well over 100% of market exposure, attributable to the exposure leveraged ETFs afford me.

And as for our crypto sideline, i am essentially out of that for all intents and purposes.

Have a great weekend!

Year to Date

GME +857

Retail +50

Energy +31

REITS +26

Weed +24

BTC +19

Tech +18

USA +18

SP500 +18

Value +17

Cons Discr +17

Small Cap +14

Non US developed +11

60/40 +8

Hussman +6

Emerging +4

ST TIPS +4

TIPS +3

Junk +3

ARKK -2

Treas -1

Corp bonds -1

Gold -5

CLean Energy -9

TSLA -9

China -8

TAIL -8

PTON -20

VXX -55

okay, so the US is at all time highs again.

Energy and REITS seem to be leading. Old fashioned stuff

Hussman falling back behind a 60/40 portfolio. I think it was in front until recently.

Dirty energy is cleaning clean energy's clock, so to speak

ARKK stalled out

emerging in the dumpster

non-US doing well but underperforming the US

TIPS crushing regular treasuries. At some point, since we seem to be almost guaranteed deflation next year, that will reverse in a big way. Sure would be great to have had TIPS in 2021 and then make the switch to regular and win that trade,

Some sectors in the US

YTD

Retail +50

Energy +31

Financials +24

Comms +24

Industrials +18

Tech +18

Healthcare +17

Materials +14

Staples +7

Utils +6

Pretty wide range there. looks like the market rewarded those who foresaw the huge GDP numbers we're about to see.

Although those GDP numbers will be less than we might thing since the inflation rate is so muych higher than we thought it would be,

note that some of these are just funds and not indexed to the SP500 sectors THose could be different.

First of all, stocks only go up.

Second - it's interesting that emerging markets are in the toilet. But I guess this is kinda like post-WW2 life. US is basically pulling ahead while Europe enters more lockdowns

SP what is your position in life? Do you have enough money already? Or still building assets for retirement?

Cause that's a lot of risk.

agip, yes, fully aware of that, in regards to customary perspectives on equity exposure in regards to age, years to retirement, emergency and cash reserves, etc.

I wish I could answer you more frankly, or via an email, but don't worry about me. I agree with you completely, and know what I'm doing.

And i think I might be going to a more conservative approach in the near future, for one reason if not more, and that is just because I want to start focusing on other things.

Thanks for asking. I really appreciate it.

* And in the interest of full transparency, the ratio noted above is brokerage accounts only. Work retirement account (100% mutual funds) for both the wife and I are not figured into that calculation, and when they are, we would be at 114% market exposure.

seattle prattle wrote:

* And in the interest of full transparency, the ratio noted above is brokerage accounts only. Work retirement account (100% mutual funds) for both the wife and I are not figured into that calculation, and when they are, we would be at 114% market exposure.

Seattle, stocks only go up. You should be taking out cash advances and personal loans to leverage up even more.

Whoa crypto just exploded. Is this a trap?

investing noob wrote:

Whoa crypto just exploded. Is this a trap?

Not for me. Used it bail out on the last of my crypto at break even price from when i bought it 22 days ago.

Only lost the trading fee.

Good luck.

Racket, PhD wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

* And in the interest of full transparency, the ratio noted above is brokerage accounts only. Work retirement account (100% mutual funds) for both the wife and I are not figured into that calculation, and when they are, we would be at 114% market exposure.

Seattle, stocks only go up. You should be taking out cash advances and personal loans to leverage up even more.

That's just crazy talk.

Crazy.

Next thing, you'd be messing with options or some other lunacy,.

well now China stocks are down 30% from their highs, going by the fund I prefer: CXSE.

If we go down 40% I think I have to buy back in...that's blood in the streets time.

Well I think I *should* buy back in at that point - if I do or not is an open question.

agip wrote:

well now China stocks are down 30% from their highs, going by the fund I prefer: CXSE.

If we go down 40% I think I have to buy back in...that's blood in the streets time.

Well I think I *should* buy back in at that point - if I do or not is an open question.

and the other thing...china crashing...does that affect the US market at all? Positive? Negative? I could argue both but probably more a net positive since that may direct even more flows this way.

But bad market behavior is contagious and can expose underlying rot, so plenty to worry about here.

Hey, I certainly don't know,

But don't these two markets move quite independently of eachother. They don't seem to be correlated. And they economies are run so differently, what ills beset one may have no similarities at all with what's going on in the other, and probably thankfully so.

I do read how the US is the market to be putting your money into nowadays, so probably a benefit to our markets.

As for me, I'm not biting.

here's what the bond market has been telling us is coming...slower growth. but still very big numbers.

the invisible hand is usually very amazing. Not always. it told us this weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1419647365145927688?s=20