YTD
GME +838
REtail +42
Weed +41
Energy +39
Materials +20
Value +18
REITS +16
BTC +16
Sm Caps +12
Hussman +11
SP500 +11
USA +11
Non US Devlpd+10
COns Discr +8
60/40 +5
Tech +4
Emerging +4
TIPS 0
Gold -1
Treas -2
China -3
ARKK -15
Clean energy -15
TSLA -18
PTON -34
value continues to crush it. Non-US developed catching up the US
Hussman is slappin'
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I try to avoid the Trump and Biden threads. Toxic, nasty, and the same rehash. And unbelievably in the case of the Trump thread, still alive. We have a liberal friend that no longer welcome at the house. Constantly arguing for their side of politics. Superior attitude. Really annoying.
Oh, the irony!
End of an era eh Igy?
No more dialing for dollars at Merrill.
ML wouldn't hire me into their training program - which is great, I would have failed out anyway.
///
Bank of America Corp.’s BAC 1.27% Merrill Lynch Wealth Management unit is banning trainee brokers from making cold calls, a vestige of an era when the industry pushed hot stocks on anyone who would pick up the phone.
Merrill plans to roll out a revamped adviser-training program on Monday that prohibits participants from cold calling, people familiar with the matter said. The bank will instead direct them to use internal referrals or LinkedIn messages to land clients, they said. The decision comes after the program’s 3,000 trainees were told to stop outbound recruiting efforts to find new customers last year after problematic phone calls.
The announcement will formalize a shift that executives have signaled for months. “We are leaning much more heavily on leads and referrals from the broader company,” Merrill President Andy Sieg said in April. “There is also an opportunity to be much more modern in terms of the way we are reaching out to prospective clients.”
Merrill’s training program, first established in 1945, was meant to be the firm’s pipeline for new advisers after it cut back on the expensive practice of poaching from other firms. The pool of candidates that starts off in the program, which pays a base salary of $65,000 a year, is typically young and diverse. Participants who fail to meet the goals are kicked out or moved to other roles in the bank.
In recent years, only a small portion of trainees completed the program. Successful recruits often had extensive personal networks and were less reliant on cold calling, trainees said.
While cold calling offers the opportunity for a gifted salesperson to build a network from scratch, it is hard to succeed that way in an era when no one picks up. Personal referrals lead to a response around 40% of the time, Merrill executives said, but less than 2% of people who are cold called even answer the phone.
agip,
I trained under the Dean Witter Star System. Three weeks in NYC, daily at World Trade Center Two, 52nd floor. Emphasis on cold calling, activity, and hard work. I think those basics hold true, with the exception of cold calling, now contacts thru social media or some other avenue. Also, having a good manager is a key to success at a wire house. I was fortunate to have two really top notch managers early in my career.
Morgan Stanley helped Linked-In, Facebook, and Sales Force go public. Beginning about ten years ago the company increasingly added analytics and social media to the broker technology platform. So, I would say Morgan Stanley has been using this model for sometime.
I do believe the major firms want more control of clients, and they do that thru linking social media, analytics, and their marketing platforms. As power shifts to firms and platforms, broker pay and independence is compromised. The Bull Market has blurred the lines of good and bad advice. A severe Bear Market could change many of the current assumptions of what the future holds.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I trained under the Dean Witter Star System. Three weeks in NYC, daily at World Trade Center Two, 52nd floor. Emphasis on cold calling, activity, and hard work. I think those basics hold true, with the exception of cold calling, now contacts thru social media or some other avenue. Also, having a good manager is a key to success at a wire house. I was fortunate to have two really top notch managers early in my career.
Morgan Stanley helped Linked-In, Facebook, and Sales Force go public. Beginning about ten years ago the company increasingly added analytics and social media to the broker technology platform. So, I would say Morgan Stanley has been using this model for sometime.
I do believe the major firms want more control of clients, and they do that thru linking social media, analytics, and their marketing platforms. As power shifts to firms and platforms, broker pay and independence is compromised. The Bull Market has blurred the lines of good and bad advice. A severe Bear Market could change many of the current assumptions of what the future holds.
Igy
I started in a second-tier insurance company, the last guy through the door in 2008 before they stopped hiring. They didn't pay me anything but they didn't fire me for lack of sales either, so it worked out as a platform to build a business. They wanted me to sell annuities and A shares, I wanted to build a long-term wrap business. Not a good match.
So as soon as I had a critical mass of clients I left to start my own RIA which changed my payout to 85% from 25% or some ridiculous number.
I never made a cold call - relied only on friends, family and word of mouth.
THe only reason it worked is that my wife made a high income and could carry the household while I made minimum wage.
And that is an example of why the lack of marriage in America is going to be a problem and keep many in poverty.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I trained under the Dean Witter Star System. Three weeks in NYC, daily at World Trade Center Two, 52nd floor. Emphasis on cold calling, activity, and hard work. I think those basics hold true, with the exception of cold calling, now contacts thru social media or some other avenue. Also, having a good manager is a key to success at a wire house. I was fortunate to have two really top notch managers early in my career.
Morgan Stanley helped Linked-In, Facebook, and Sales Force go public. Beginning about ten years ago the company increasingly added analytics and social media to the broker technology platform. So, I would say Morgan Stanley has been using this model for sometime.
I do believe the major firms want more control of clients, and they do that thru linking social media, analytics, and their marketing platforms. As power shifts to firms and platforms, broker pay and independence is compromised. The Bull Market has blurred the lines of good and bad advice. A severe Bear Market could change many of the current assumptions of what the future holds.
Igy
I started in a second-tier insurance company, the last guy through the door in 2008 before they stopped hiring. They didn't pay me anything but they didn't fire me for lack of sales either, so it worked out as a platform to build a business. They wanted me to sell annuities and A shares, I wanted to build a long-term wrap business. Not a good match.
So as soon as I had a critical mass of clients I left to start my own RIA which changed my payout to 85% from 25% or some ridiculous number.
I never made a cold call - relied only on friends, family and word of mouth.
THe only reason it worked is that my wife made a high income and could carry the household while I made minimum wage.
And that is an example of why the lack of marriage in America is going to be a problem and keep many in poverty.
important note is that the do-not-call registry was in place when I started so we couldn't really cold call. We had piles of cold leads I could have used, in theory, but I never did.
agip,
I would probably go that same route in today’s environment. One of my good managers is doing the same at Raymond James, I would have gone with him if I didn’t have a business arrangement with my former business partner. Anyway, my wife and I had Idaho public school teaching certificates when we moved to Idaho. She worked one year once I was off salary. Our kids were 13 and 11 when I made the career move at age 45. There was really no way I was going to fail with the family obligations. I was always in the top 25% of my broker class (we were tracked for five years), so a larger draw, but early on it was less than I was making as a coach, and in Texas as a public employee I had a high retirement contribution. It was a struggle personally, and financially. Zero running from 1997-2001, ballooned up to 220 lbs on bad diet, long hours, and no exercise. I bet I averaged 60 working hour weeks during that stretch. Good experience, but frankly enjoyed my career as a coach more. It all worked out, and no regrets. Coaching would be a tough job as you get older; the traveling is hell.
Igy
The US starting to lag...
1 year returns
Non-US developed +47.1%
US Total Stock +46.7%
Emerging +44.5%
SP500 +43.0%
An underperforming US would be a major earthquake.
Could be just a temporary 'rebound from the covid bear market' issue
agip wrote:
The US starting to lag...
1 year returns
Non-US developed +47.1%
US Total Stock +46.7%
Emerging +44.5%
SP500 +43.0%
An underperforming US would be a major earthquake.
Could be just a temporary 'rebound from the covid bear market' issue
Tech on the rebound, bringing US along for the ride.
Elon is feeling bad for costing dogebros billions of dollars.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1396914548167233537?s=20
agip wrote:
End of an era eh Igy?
No more dialing for dollars at Merrill.
ML wouldn't hire me into their training program - which is great, I would have failed out anyway.
///
Bank of America Corp.’s BAC 1.27% Merrill Lynch Wealth Management unit is banning trainee brokers from making cold calls, a vestige of an era when the industry pushed hot stocks on anyone who would pick up the phone.
Merrill plans to roll out a revamped adviser-training program on Monday that prohibits participants from cold calling, people familiar with the matter said. The bank will instead direct them to use internal referrals or LinkedIn messages to land clients, they said. The decision comes after the program’s 3,000 trainees were told to stop outbound recruiting efforts to find new customers last year after problematic phone calls.
The announcement will formalize a shift that executives have signaled for months. “We are leaning much more heavily on leads and referrals from the broader company,” Merrill President Andy Sieg said in April. “There is also an opportunity to be much more modern in terms of the way we are reaching out to prospective clients.”
Merrill’s training program, first established in 1945, was meant to be the firm’s pipeline for new advisers after it cut back on the expensive practice of poaching from other firms. The pool of candidates that starts off in the program, which pays a base salary of $65,000 a year, is typically young and diverse. Participants who fail to meet the goals are kicked out or moved to other roles in the bank.
In recent years, only a small portion of trainees completed the program. Successful recruits often had extensive personal networks and were less reliant on cold calling, trainees said.
While cold calling offers the opportunity for a gifted salesperson to build a network from scratch, it is hard to succeed that way in an era when no one picks up. Personal referrals lead to a response around 40% of the time, Merrill executives said, but less than 2% of people who are cold called even answer the phone.
Encouraged to hear this. I’ll file it under “Better Late Than Never”.
One Year Total Return
China +60
Emerging +50
Non-US devlped +48
USA +47
SP500 +44
Pretty tight correlations all in all.
yield curve has been around the same for three months...which probably suggests that the market is foreseeing the economy cooling.
Hat Trick!
My third go-round with PTON is a winner.
Feels like I'm on a treadmill here, without dying but with more money.
In at $88 out at $105
$102 profit. Biggest yet.
1 year
GME +5,368%
TSLA +274
BTC +265
PTON +161
Clean Energy +133
Retail +131
ARKK +81
Financials +67
Weed +64
Cons Discr +64
Materials +60
Small Caps +58
Industrials +58
Van MoMo +56
China +54
Emerging +47
Comms +47
USA +44
Tech +44
Non-US developed +43
Value +42
Energy +42
SP500 +40
REITS +34
60/40 +25
Cons Staples +23
Healthcare +22
Hussman +13
Utils +13
Junk +11
Gold +10
ST TIPS +7
TIPS +6
Corp Bonds +2
Inter Treas -2
VXX -74
The 2020 pattern has not quite reversed itself...still big wins for Arkk, meme and covid stuff.
But old stuff is catching up fast...industrials, financials, value, retail.
Look at that split between TIPS and straight Treasuries
I'm going to start buying gold again.
Hussman has a good absolute return but getting crushed by a standard 60/40 portfolio.
agip wrote:
1 year
GME +5,368%
TSLA +274
BTC +265
PTON +161
Clean Energy +133
Retail +131
ARKK +81
In case it wasn't obvious - this is what happens when rates are at 0% and 1/3 of the entire money supply gets created in 6 months
Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
1 year
GME +5,368%
TSLA +274
BTC +265
PTON +161
Clean Energy +133
Retail +131
ARKK +81
In case it wasn't obvious - this is what happens when rates are at 0% and 1/3 of the entire money supply gets created in 6 months
and also it's a snap-back..May 2020 was a very bleak time - stocks were knocked down a lot then.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has a 1989 Ferrari 348 GTB and he's just put in paperwork to upgrade it
Strava thinks the London Marathon times improved 12 minutes last year thanks to supershoes
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
NAU women have no excuse - they should win it all at 2024 NCAA XC
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts