Down goes the Dow

Johannes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As usual the Troll is hard at work.

A decade ago few could have envisioned the casino nature, leverage, and manipulation in today’s stock and bond market. The Fed active in both by the way. Not likely to end serving the greater good.

If you think that meets the standard of free, and smoothly function markets, ok.

Troll? For asking a question?

Meanwhile, if you think this wasn’t envisioned a decade ago, then you weren’t paying attention.

Now, how about answering my question?

No, a decade ago a bubble popping was not a distant memory. Today, all is good. No bad days.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I think that's about as likely as Igy figuring out that he painted the wrong house.

What do you think the chance of that kind of drop are?

Just saying, I wouldn't put off any of life's major events waiting for that to happen.

Could happen; 70 you know. Finished by the way.

I'm holding on to my $104 in BTC. My basis is $40.

Up 69% year to date

**diamond hands**

Good job on the house, Igy

speaking of crypto, I just got an alert from paypal that they need my SS and digital signature to generate tax forms for sale of crypto. I assume that means the government will want to collect capital gains on gains.

I just don't think a lot of capital gainst taxes on crypto will be collected. Call me cynical.

Just trying to imagine tech bros sending in $20,000 checks to the IRS. 'It's money!' They say. 'No tax, FU!!!!'

oy

Thanks agip. Came out nice, and able to do all of it myself, which I questioned at the beginning. Sold the sprayer on Craigslist in a matter of hours to a young man starting a painting business. Good to see. Back to running, looks like we may have some track races this summer. I plan to focus on 800m to 1500m

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Thanks agip. Came out nice, and able to do all of it myself, which I questioned at the beginning. Sold the sprayer on Craigslist in a matter of hours to a young man starting a painting business. Good to see. Back to running, looks like we may have some track races this summer. I plan to focus on 800m to 1500m

Igy

whoa going short. Outstanding.

I consider it a point of personal shame that I have not raced an 800 since high school. It's a god-forsaken distance. 'Just run as fast as you can until you die. Your last 200 will be the slowest of the bunch no matter what you do, and you will regret your existence for a full 60 seconds.'

I'm aiming at two track 5000s in June. Long outside reach is 17:59.999 but more realistically 18:15 would be great. Been doing intervals for a few weeks now - starting to get more comfortable at 3kish pace.

agip,

Looks like we will have the Idaho Senior Games in August. A month before there is the USATF Master in Iowa. So it looks like we may have some races this summer. If so,

I want to see how close I can get to 3:00 for the 800m. The Idaho M70 Senior Games record is 3:10, which seems possible, but will be on a double after racing a 1500m. The listed 1500m is 5:44, but an error where the athlete really only ran 2 3/4 laps. At the time no one caught the mistake. I will really need to buckle down to get close.

From your recent racing and fitness I think you can break 18:00 convincingly. One of my best masters races was 2006 Hayward Masters 5,000 meters. Really wanted to break 18:00, came up short at 18:02. That was the top track 5k time that year for M55. Some of the marks of current masters like Dan King are truly amazing.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Johannes wrote:

Troll? For asking a question?

Meanwhile, if you think this wasn’t envisioned a decade ago, then you weren’t paying attention.

Now, how about answering my question?

No, a decade ago a bubble popping was not a distant memory. Today, all is good. No bad days.

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised at another non-answer from you.

agip wrote:

speaking of crypto, I just got an alert from paypal that they need my SS and digital signature to generate tax forms for sale of crypto. I assume that means the government will want to collect capital gains on gains.

I just don't think a lot of capital gainst taxes on crypto will be collected. Call me cynical.

Just trying to imagine tech bros sending in $20,000 checks to the IRS. 'It's money!' They say. 'No tax, FU!!!!'

oy

If the IRS knows you owe them money, there is a 200% chance they will get it from you.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 84% is the final percentage, it will tie the mark for the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

Racket, PhD wrote:

agip wrote:

speaking of crypto, I just got an alert from paypal that they need my SS and digital signature to generate tax forms for sale of crypto. I assume that means the government will want to collect capital gains on gains.

I just don't think a lot of capital gainst taxes on crypto will be collected. Call me cynical.

Just trying to imagine tech bros sending in $20,000 checks to the IRS. 'It's money!' They say. 'No tax, FU!!!!'

oy

If the IRS knows you owe them money, there is a 200% chance they will get it from you.

I suppose the question is if every crypto exchange will pass on info on every account to the IRS.

Paypal is apparently going to try. We'll see.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I think that's about as likely as Igy figuring out that he painted the wrong house.

What do you think the chance of that kind of drop are?

Just saying, I wouldn't put off any of life's major events waiting for that to happen.

Could happen; 70 you know. Finished by the way.

Did anyone other than your wife thank you when you were done?

In any case, good work!

One Month

TSLA +10

Tech +9

Materials +9

REITs +8

Industrials +8

SP500 +7

USA +7

FInancials +7

Cons Discr +7

Utils +6

Small Caps +6

Retail +7

healthcare +6

Vang MoMo +5

Value +5

Non-US developed +5

60/40 +4

Cons Staples +4

Gold +3

EM +3

ARKK +2

Corp Bonds +2

China +2

Junk +1

Comms Sector +1

ST TIPS +1

TIPS +1

Treas 0

Energy -1

Hussman -4

BTC -4

Weed -7

PTON -11

GME -17

Another good period for tech.

Great to see contrarian bet REITS beating the world.

Energy back to trailing the market.

Emerging still weak but positive

The meme stuff seems to be hurting...weed, arkk, PTON, GME, BTC

YTD

Just some items, I'd rather be watching track.

BTC +76

REITS +16

SPX +12

Tech +9

Hussman +8

EM +7

60/40 +5

China +2

Same old same old.

REITS! Man that's striking. The stock market is saying people are going back to offices.

Although to be fair, there are many more REITS than just office reits. Maybe they are doing the heavy lifting, I don't know. I'd like to know.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Could happen; 70 you know. Finished by the way.

Did anyone other than your wife thank you when you were done?

In any case, good work!

Seattle,

My running group. I think they missed me, even though I continued to send workouts. Neighbors too.

Funny a golfer broke a window the day after I finished.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Funny a golfer broke a window the day after I finished.

Igy

seattle prattle wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

I'll buy in with some play money if it gets below $10k.

I think that's about as likely as Igy figuring out that he painted the wrong house.

What do you think the chance of that kind of drop are?

Just saying, I wouldn't put off any of life's major events waiting for that to happen.

I'd say there's just as good a chance of < $10k as > $150k by the end of the year, say, ~ 5 to 10% for either case.

That is funny.

First time in eight years. That same window has been hit at least one other time. Last year a golf ball hit the lower screen and made an impression on the glass. I found some glass fragments under that same window shortly after we moved in, so suspect the previous owners got more than a hit. I get about 100 golf balls a year, and a couple dozen hits to the house annually. Most come on a bounce or a roll, but this one must have been a pretty close shank.

Well, at least you’ll save money on golf balls. 😄

George Corwin wrote:

Well, at least you’ll save money on golf balls. 😄

I don’t golf, and if I did I would be worse than the guy that nailed my window. I have given way perhaps 1,000 golf balls. There was a male junior golfer that would come by and I would give him the balls. He would meddle them in egg cartons. He has grown up now. Generally some nice ones. Pro V or equivalent. Neighbor doesn’t golf and has buckets in his garage. I woukd assume there is a shelf life.