Down goes the Dow

Attack? I pointed out that you and your neighbors don’t wear masks (even burn them) in a state where in excess of 1-in-4 are testing positive for Covid. Those are facts. My opinion is that covidiots like you are not very bright. If that’s an attack, then so be it. I guess your conservative free speech values do not extend to anyone with a different opinion.

1 year

GME 5790

BTC +770

TSLA +587

Retail +227

ARKK +203

Weed +122

Consumer Discr +120

Small Caps +102

Vanguard momentum +97

Financials +80

Tech +79

China +76

Energy +76

USA +69

SPX +62

Emerging +61

Non-US Developed +57

Value +55

REITS +49

60/40 +37

Junk +21

Hussman +13

Corp Bonds +10

Gold +7

Short TIPS +7

TIPS +6

Inter treas -2

VXX -77

That retail number is amazing. A very very classic 'buy when there is blood on the streets' example. A year ago every store in the country shut down. Now Americans have cash bursting out of their wallets, waiting to be spent, and retail stocks are up 227%. More than ARKK.

The TIPS over Treasuries number is eye-popping. I suspect it's probably time to go the other way on that. Probably inflation expectations have gotten away from reality. This divergence has to be one of the largest of recent history.

10 years.

Going long while I should be running long.

I added each of the SP500 sectors except comms, which didn't exist 10 years ago.

**all figures annualized**

Bitcoin +210

TSLA 62

AMZN +33

Apple +26

GME +24

Tech +20

Consumer discretionary +18

Retail +15

Health Care +15

SPX +14

USA +14

Value +12

Small Caps +12

Industrials +12

Financials +12

Consumer Staples +11

Utils +11

REITS +9

Materials +9

60/40 +8

Non-US developed +6

Corp Bonds +5

Junk +5

Emerging +3

TIPS +3

Treas +3

Gold +2

Energy -1

Hussman -5

Much to unpack here.

How many dudes bought BTC in 2011 and held on through all the valleys? To get 210% per year. Amazing stuff.

Amazon doubling every 2-3 years.

Tech and consumer discretionary are standouts. I'd call that the 'there will always be a lot of rich americans, individual and corporate' trade. I'm seriously thinking of building a large systematic , long-term buy and hold overweight in consumer discretionary. I mean how do you bet against rich americans spending money? Why not bet alongside them? I suppose this could be fluke though - AMZN and TSLA make up 30%+ of the index. Could be just luck.

Weird that investment quality bonds and junk bonds did the same. That shouldnt' happen.

Financials have underperformed. I seriously think the brain drain from financials to tech has done long-term harm to the US financial industry. Also low interest rates have hurt. But still - that's supposed to be the twin crown jewel of the US. tech and banks. Banks haven't been carrying their weight.

I wouldn't have predicted that retail would outperform over 10 years. Conventional wisdom is that the last 10 years have been retail ravaged by Amazon. That doesn't seem to have happened.

Finally, always hard to imagine what markets will look like before the pendulum swings. Specifically, emerging and non-US developed. They've stunk up the joint for 10 years but that's probably the time to start nibbling on them for the next 10 years.

I appreciate your work on these posts, agip. Very informative.

Gruntz wrote:

Attack? I pointed out that you and your neighbors don’t wear masks (even burn them) in a state where in excess of 1-in-4 are testing positive for Covid. Those are facts. My opinion is that covidiots like you are not very bright. If that’s an attack, then so be it. I guess your conservative free speech values do not extend to anyone with a different opinion.

I where a mask every time I am out, and I see very few people without them. With you, it is always Igy, you post little about anything else. I listed your posting percentages in the past. You have more than an opinion, it is a grudge, your obsession, and it goes on, and on, and on.......

seattle prattle wrote:

Sounds nice, Igy. And the house is looking great, too!

Every time I hear anything on LRC about the place i live in, it is destitute beyond words. So bad, I hardly recognize it. Just a festering hell-hole of misplaced placed priorities and misguided leadership.

Part of the problem is that Seattle still gets hyped as if it were still the same city it was in 1970. Denver and a lot of places in Colorado have the same issues. I imagine back then they really were a reprieve from the big city life and place you could actually connect with nature. Back then, they really were avant-garde.

Nowadays though it's just a regular US city (except worse because it's been filled with people from California who ruin literally everything) - an overcrowded dump with infrastructure that makes traffic an insufferable hellhole and ridiculous homeless problem to boot. The peaceful trails and parks that everyone used to love were taken over by millions of people and weekend warriors and are unrecognizable now. The entire city is like California now - purely synthetic. Nothing is genuine, everything exists in the name of Instagram

“wear a mask”

That's what i'm talking about.

But I'm so clueless, the worst thing on the horizon, for me, in my mind, is that my wife keeps talking about all the travelling she wants to do once we get vaccinated. Lots of it. And if I am honest with myself, which i don't have the courage to be with her, I don't want to leave Seattle.

I've bought the lie and it has become me.

I'm little more than a diehard buy and hold investor who can't see past the meager dividends to the festering decay of the underlying investment.

I would be profoundly sad, were it not for the love i've come to find on the LRC messageboard, where those I communicate with are brave enough to tell me the uncomfortable truth.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Attack? I pointed out that you and your neighbors don’t wear masks (even burn them) in a state where in excess of 1-in-4 are testing positive for Covid. Those are facts. My opinion is that covidiots like you are not very bright. If that’s an attack, then so be it. I guess your conservative free speech values do not extend to anyone with a different opinion.

I where a mask every time I am out, and I see very few people without them. With you, it is always Igy, you post little about anything else. I listed your posting percentages in the past. You have more than an opinion, it is a grudge, your obsession, and it goes on, and on, and on.......

Did you wear a mask when you ignored the stay-at-home order to get a haircut?

You are your own obsession.

With the infrastructure plan announced Wednesday, and it 100 billion dollars earmarked for expanding broadband access throughout the country, doesn't this sound like a big positive for tech.? By expanding fast internet access to every home, that could be significant.

Hard not to see it that way.

Of course, first and foremost, it is encouraging in that it is inherently the right thing to do and helps the economy, but beyond that, it seems targeted towards that sector.

And alternative energy sector faired well as well, so I understand.

With the proviso that it has to be approved and pass first.

That's what I'm here for!

As far as your wife wanting to travel - this will probably be the worst year on record for it, if you want to actually do anything at least. Every national park, monument, and barely decent spot on Earth is about to be descended upon by about 3 billion people over the course of the summer.

If you do want to travel, I've identified a few places that could be peaceful. They are: parts of Alaska and Denali National Park, Mongolia, Scotland (everyone is too busy going to the giga-dump that is Paris and London), and some small towns in Germany along the Rhine.

Everywhere else in the world will be rather insufferable I'm afraid.

This is not good. That's about all I can say.

The only bright spot is that you referred to Paris with a disdain usually reserved for my beloved Seattle. Misery loves company, I guess.

And this travel thing is going to be more the new normal, no luck with a one and done scenario.

But aside from my own personal travails, this very much fits the forecast of massive spending fueled by pent up demand and record savings.

What a time!

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I where a mask every time I am out, and I see very few people without them. With you, it is always Igy, you post little about anything else. I listed your posting percentages in the past. You have more than an opinion, it is a grudge, your obsession, and it goes on, and on, and on.......

Did you wear a mask when you ignored the stay-at-home order to get a haircut?

You are your own obsession.

Do your thing. It’s your passion.

good to hear all is well in Igyville.

What?! House prices drop 30% in Idaho going forward? That is surprising and not what i would expect.

Interesting thread on this site today about home buyers paying cash for million dollar plus homes in CA. Things seem to be in a particular state of flux right now, and i expect that a year from now, things might settle down to a new normal.

Or at least so it seems.

Seattle,

On Idaho housing it just seems bubbly. It would be nice to see thing keep appreciating, but that seems a reach to me. There are new developments going up everywhere, some mid-market and some custom.

On traveling, fortunately my wife does not like it. I have had to push her to go anywhere; I am pretty much agnostic on the topic. Traveled a lot in U.S. in my coaching years, and some as a financial advisor. Not a mystery to me anymore.

On the house project, sprayer the east side and painted the upper trim yesterday (photo). It was a long day. finished in the dark, removed the masking, and completed clean up today. I will finish the window and garage trim over the next day or two. I am over the hump now, and plan to limit my painting to a few hours a day from here.

Happy Easter.

Igy

https://imgur.com/a/XhoNKXj

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://imgur.com/a/XhoNKXj

You may want to move that firewood away from the house. Varmints love to nest in that stuff and will inevitably find their way into your house.

House looks good Igy

All time highs today in SPX and Dow

NAS and R2K have a small ways to go

agip wrote:

House looks good Igy

All time highs today in SPX and Dow

NAS and R2K have a small ways to go

This is but a taste of what you'll see once summer sales and spending hits.

Dow 35k by July, if not sooner

Thanks agip. I am cutting back on the painting hours now that I am at about 75% complete. Plus it is getting hotter in the afternoon. Besides, want to get back to running, and can’t handle both without compromising.

Market daily rise is remarkable.