Down goes the Dow

Dr. Racket wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Need a big bounce back today.

Two terrible days for bitcoin, Tesla, weed, nio, etc so far this week

Have you tried putting your money in things that aren't literal memes?

You mean things that have not delivered massive returns this past year for me?

Das Unkle wrote:

Dr. Racket wrote:

Have you tried putting your money in things that aren't literal memes?

You mean things that have not delivered massive returns this past year for me?

You mean things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because?

Yipes bonds down 40 bps today, again, after other bad days.

down 2.7% year to date.

I'd suspect there are some decent yields out there now

total bond market index fund

Dr. Racket wrote:

Das Unkle wrote:

You mean things that have not delivered massive returns this past year for me?

You mean things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because?

those who see the stock market as a get rich quick scheme...rarely get rich

those who see the stock market as a get rich slowly scheme...almost always get rich

agip wrote:

Yipes bonds down 40 bps today, again, after other bad days.

down 2.7% year to date.

I'd suspect there are some decent yields out there now

total bond market index fund

How do bonds work? Basically the present value of future coupon payments in USD goes down because of expectations? And thus the bonds are worth less and "drop"?

Dr. Racket wrote:

Das Unkle wrote:

You mean things that have not delivered massive returns this past year for me?

You mean things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because?

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word literal. Or meme.

You think it means things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because? Because what? What has lost 50% of its value in a week?

I weep for your stupidity

Btw I would recommend STX for any crypto riskers out there. Low market cap, and only on OkCoin and KuCoin. Will pop once it hits Coinbase etc.

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

agip wrote:

Yipes bonds down 40 bps today, again, after other bad days.

down 2.7% year to date.

I'd suspect there are some decent yields out there now

total bond market index fund

How do bonds work? Basically the present value of future coupon payments in USD goes down because of expectations? And thus the bonds are worth less and "drop"?

Basically, if you have a corporate bond fund with a 5 year duration (return of principal calculated by maturity and coupon (interest) payments) and interest rates move up by 1%, the bond fund will drop by 5% (reflecting sensitivity to that move).

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Swag,

I think that was a good question, but a better question is: how is your financial condition since 2010? That could include a host of other factors that can be quantified, or not. The market return would be just one portion of that calculation.

Igy

I'm 28 (turning 29 soon) now and only started investing last year (lol).

I made probably close to 50% ROA from btc, other crypto (STX is the new one that's gonna pop) and stocks.

I work as a software engineer making 144k a year with 10% target bonus.

My net worth is 230k liquid. 50k in 401k.

Not a money guy, so hopefully this can give me options as I approach my 30s.

Swag,

You are doing the most aggressive investments possible, working in one of the highest income fields. I assume if things don’t work as anticipated you will land on your feet. At your age I was married, my wife was working as a special education aide, I was an instructor and an assistant track coach at a junior college. That was 1978, and I believe our income that year was $7,500. We had no health or retirement benefits. At the end of the month we ate beans and corn bread because we were out of money. Still, some great memories of that time.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

How do bonds work? Basically the present value of future coupon payments in USD goes down because of expectations? And thus the bonds are worth less and "drop"?

Basically, if you have a corporate bond fund with a 5 year duration (return of principal calculated by maturity and coupon (interest) payments) and interest rates move up by 1%, the bond fund will drop by 5% (reflecting sensitivity to that move).

Or you can just hold it to maturity and get what you were promised.

Dow up 823 points from its low YESTERDAY

Lots of aerobic fitness behind this bull market

I recently sold some airlines since they had gone back up to pre-covid levels, and I didn't expect them to continue to rise much. They have gone up another 10% since then, but oh well. I made out really well from when I bought them. However, now roughly 15% of my position is in cash. I don't like holding cash, but I also don't really know where to put it. I already maxed out my Roth IRA for 2020 and 2021 when the S and P 500 was at about 3700. Even with the recent mild pullback, the S and P 500 seems high... I'm already pretty heavily invested in individual stocks and sectors I thought were undervalued six months ago (banks, oil, etc). I'd like to the put the money into something relatively safe, but the market as a whole seems high, and a 5% pullback seems moderately probable.

What should I do?

Ri Dilio wrote:

I recently sold some airlines since they had gone back up to pre-covid levels, and I didn't expect them to continue to rise much. They have gone up another 10% since then, but oh well. I made out really well from when I bought them. However, now roughly 15% of my position is in cash. I don't like holding cash, but I also don't really know where to put it. I already maxed out my Roth IRA for 2020 and 2021 when the S and P 500 was at about 3700. Even with the recent mild pullback, the S and P 500 seems high... I'm already pretty heavily invested in individual stocks and sectors I thought were undervalued six months ago (banks, oil, etc). I'd like to the put the money into something relatively safe, but the market as a whole seems high, and a 5% pullback seems moderately probable.

What should I do?

no idea what 'relatively safe' means so I can't answer your question.

But one good solution is to use an allocation fund like VASGX or less aggressively VSMGX and just keep feeding it. You won't get the full return of the stock market but you won't suffer the full losses either. And it's easier mentally to keep adding and to stay in it. Being in and staying in is the key to getting rich slowly.

Das Unkle wrote:

Dr. Racket wrote:

You mean things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because?

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word literal. Or meme.

You think it means things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because? Because what? What has lost 50% of its value in a week?

I weep for your stupidity

You eat a lot of paint chips as a kid?

I thought this was appropriate with even Matt Centrowitz learning about the stock market. This from Albert Capital addressed to to “Dear Stock Picker.”

“This surely will sound quaint and stale to a few readers, but – and I’m sorry – the future value of a thing is ultimately based on the dividends the thing will eventually pay you, or someone to whom you are prepared to sell your shares. Whether the proxies for those dividends are cash flows, earnings, margins, sales, or the dividends themselves, alpha happens when expectations of those future dividends change.

That’s it. That’s the stock-picking game. Stocks are not pieces of art. They are not fiat money. Cults of personality do not last forever in the stock market. Narratives break. Eventually, everyone figured out that Galileo was right. Eventually, everyone will figure out that Cathie Wood isn’t. And it won’t take as long either.”

Nvidia announces earnings any minute......

As for AMZN, i would say that 3500 is definitely in the cards within 6 months if the covid variants start reeking their havoc before we can get solid vaccinations in place. Basically, a pretty solid re-opening is being priced into the markets now and if that falters, or if recovery is worse than expected, we could see a jump in the lock-down stocks, of which Amazon is one of the most prominent.

If not, i would look at it as a growth stock with good long term prospects, and focus on the long term rather than further short term upside.

As for the guy with 15% cash, at these levels, i would either wait and see or simply dollar cost average your way into a moderately safe etf. A 15% cash position is not out of line with as big a run-up as we have seen, and this little rebound this morning hardly means that the tech sell-off is over (though i can certainly hope!)

Dr. Racket wrote:

Das Unkle wrote:

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word literal. Or meme.

You think it means things that lose 50% of their value in a week just because? Because what? What has lost 50% of its value in a week?

I weep for your stupidity

You eat a lot of paint chips as a kid?

Oh, snap!

GME up 200% in 3 trading days

I thought that one was a goner. Nutso.

Will the diamond hands win after all?