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Dr. Racket

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 7:17am CST
re: seattle prattle

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seattle prattle wrote:
bitcoin drop[s 10% in the course of a few hours and Coinbase, about the most established trading platform in the US, is down. ANd this is isn't the first time this has happened.

People ask why bitcoin is a joke. It's ongoing stuff like this....

"Investigating - Some users may experience degraded service resulting in longer loading times or limited access to the Coinbase Pro website and mobile app. Trading is still fully functional. We're investigating the issue and will post additional updates as soon as possible
Feb 22, 18:08 PST"

Those websites are built by the lowest bidding contractor in India - same with Schwaub, Fidelity, and a bunch of other platforms that crashed last year in March when suddenly everyone wanted to login and place orders.
Dr. Racket

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 7:19am CST
re: The Unkle

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The Unkle wrote:

The Unkle wrote:
Got killed today.

Tesla, bitcoin, nio, weed.

Just killed

Today pre market number even worse.

Across the board for my 4 key investments

Anyone shook by a couple -2% red days needs to just leave the market because this is how it is now in 2020 v2.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot

1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:06am CST
re: Dr. Racket

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Dr. Racket wrote:Anyone shook by a couple -2% red days needs to just leave the market because this is how it is now in 2020 v2.
I'm personally salivating for a healthy drop. If that doesn't happen, my evil plan to build cash will eventually make me feel pretty stoopid... :-)
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Ghost of Igloi

1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:26am CST
re: VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot

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You can use your cash to buy another rental property. Prices keep going up, you may want to get in now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/december-home-prices-rose-9-.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1614088952
Das Unkle

1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:27am CST
re: Dr. Racket

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Dr. Racket wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

The Unkle wrote:
Got killed today.

Tesla, bitcoin, nio, weed.

Just killed

Today pre market number even worse.

Across the board for my 4 key investments

Anyone shook by a couple -2% red days needs to just leave the market because this is how it is now in 2020 v2.

2%?

More like 8%
Dr. Racket

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:38am CST
re: Ghost of Igloi

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You can use your cash to buy another rental property. Prices keep going up, you may want to get in now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/december-home-prices-rose-9-.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1614088952

Housing prices are up YoY by like 15% on average

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Ghost of Igloi

1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:44am CST
re: Dr. Racket

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A listing in our neighborhood was bid up by 30%. Sold in hours.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:49am CST
re: Ghost of Igloi

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Do you guys really think there will be such a huge pullback?

1. Stimulus

2. Consumer spending in spring is gonna go through the roof
agip

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:55am CST
re: Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

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Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Do you guys really think there will be such a huge pullback?

1. Stimulus

2. Consumer spending in spring is gonna go through the roof

No.
There will be unforesable weirdness as tons of money gets spent but the economy should be fine, unless there is an inflation spike and the fed has to raise rates. That would be rough.

TSLA down 30% from peak at its low point this morning.
agip

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 8:58am CST
re: Ghost of Igloi

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A listing in our neighborhood was bid up by 30%. Sold in hours.

my neighborhood has lower prices today than in 2017.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot

1 month ago 02/23/2021 9:03am CST
re: agip

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agip wrote:my neighborhood has lower prices today than in 2017.

Our left coast "pied a terre" (currently rented out) is in an urban neighbourhood where prices and rents have been declining, while the rest of the region sees increases, particularly with a flight to the 'burbs for bigger spaces away from the office. Mind you, prices have soared where our home base is (also rented out).
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

1 month ago 02/23/2021 9:23am CST
re: agip

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agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A listing in our neighborhood was bid up by 30%. Sold in hours.

my neighborhood has lower prices today than in 2017.

Interesting. Where is your neighborhood in a general geo-socioeconomic sense?

agip

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 9:35am CST
re: Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

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Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A listing in our neighborhood was bid up by 30%. Sold in hours.

my neighborhood has lower prices today than in 2017.

Interesting. Where is your neighborhood in a general geo-socioeconomic sense?

big rich city
ehehh

1 month ago 02/23/2021 9:37am CST
re: Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

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Anyone have thoughts on Lucid Motors? Going public via CCIV (a spac) and the stock price is fluctuating quite a bit.
agip

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 9:58am CST
re: ehehh

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https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1364223503323582464?s=20

https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1364239373361905666?s=20
Financial Advisor

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1 month ago 02/23/2021 10:17am CST
re: la gente esta muy loca

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la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Clearly you are incorrect just using the the 1995-2009 period. Here is the intermediate period. Remember “in excess of Treasury Bills.”

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc190906m.png

His 3 month t- bill calculations are wrong. Anyone that has any background in FI can tell just by looking at his chart.

Agreed. There’s obviously no way t-bills came anywhere close to what the S&P 500 did during that period.

I don’t know if Hussman is purposely being misleading, or if he is just an incompetent fool.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

1 month ago 02/23/2021 10:20am CST
re: Financial Advisor

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Hussman = scrub

That's all i gotta say
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Ghost of Igloi

1 month ago 02/23/2021 10:25am CST
re: Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1

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Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Hussman = scrub

That's all i gotta say

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1364236358093520899
captain o

1 month ago 02/23/2021 10:48am CST
re: Ghost of Igloi

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Y’all just doubled down on stupid.
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Ghost of Igloi

1 month ago 02/23/2021 10:50am CST
re: Financial Advisor

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Financial Advisor wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Clearly you are incorrect just using the the 1995-2009 period. Here is the intermediate period. Remember “in excess of Treasury Bills.”

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc190906m.png

His 3 month t- bill calculations are wrong. Anyone that has any background in FI can tell just by looking at his chart.

Agreed. There’s obviously no way t-bills came anywhere close to what the S&P 500 did during that period.

I don’t know if Hussman is purposely being misleading, or if he is just an incompetent fool.

I don’t necessarily conclude who is correct here, nor will I spend an inordinate amount of time defending Hussman. Hussman’s data is 8/1959 thru 8/1982 in his piece. Most of the criticism becomes personality, like Shiller or Grantham, when in reality it should be a valuation debate. You either believe that price matters or you don’t.

Moving on, the inflation adjusted return (by the calculator below-not verifying its factual nature) on a $100 investment in the S&P 500 made on 1/1/1959 thru 1/1/1982 is negative. Furthermore, I would assume, and knowing something of that period, having purchased a house at 11.9% interest, that T-Bill yields during that were indeed high. I also had a passbook account at Brentwood Savings in the early 1970s that was well over 5%.

“The nominal return on investment of $100 is $538.49, or 538.49%. This means by 1982 you would have $638.49 in your pocket.

However, it's important to take into account the effect of inflation when considering an investment and especially a long-term investment. You can convert S&P returns to their real (inflation-adjusted) value using an inflation calculation based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI).

In the case of the returns described above, the CPI in 1959 was 29.100 and the CPI in 1982 was 96.500.

The ratio between these CPIs describes how relative buying power of a dollar has changed over 23 years.

Adjusted for inflation, the $638.49 nominal end value of the original $100 investment would have a real value of roughly $92.54 in 1959 dollars. This means the inflation-adjusted return is 92.54% as opposed to the original 538.49%.

For more information on inflation, see our U.S. inflation calculator for 1959.”

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