Down goes the Dow

la gente esta muy loca wrote:Ummm... ever heard of ... JDS Uniphase, ...

One of my ball hockey buddies was employee 13. My spouse almost retired to take a middle management position at their new campus. My buddy bought a sweet house with stock options and lived high off the hog for a while. He later sold it when the stock cratered and he couldn’t cover the mortgage. The company never did occupy their new campus. Dodged a bullet there... ?

The Fed already said they want inflation to overrun their target to make up for a decade of misses. Aside from that, they said interest rates are staying at zero until 2023. You also have Janet "The Fed Should Be Allowed to Buy Assets" Yellen as the Secretary of Treasury.

Will the party end? Yes. Will it be violent? Probably? Is it going to happen in the next four years? Probably not.

Just sit back and watch a bunch of sh!t take off for no reason. Maybe we can get Xerox going? I'm sure you all have a favorite 90s company you'd love to see revived. Anything is possible these days

2016 Black Porsche Cayman Base Model wrote:

Porsche Cayman wrote:

Eight of ten indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 25, 2021. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 10.75%, Hussman Strategic Growth Fund is second with a gain of 7.49%, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a gain of 5.02% and China's Shangai is in fourth with a gain of 4.35%. Coming in last is France's CAC 40 with a loss of 1.42%.

This has got to be GOI given that I'm sure everyone else here knows what is, or is not, an index.

Here is u/RADIO02118's open letter to CNBC:

Before you spend another day hosting your shill hedge fund buddies to come on the air and demonize r/wallstreetbets I hope you read this.

Your contempt for the retail investor (your audience) is palpable and if you don't get it together, you'll lose an entire new generation of investors.

I keep thinking about these funds that are short GME like your boys at Melvin Capital / your coverage of this subreddit and I'm getting madder and madder.

These funds can manipulate the market via your network and if they screw up big because they don't even know the basics of portfolio risk 101 and using position sizing, they just get a bailout from their billionaire friends at Citadel. Then they have the nerve to turn us into public enemy #1 just because we believe in an underdog company getting a second chance.

We don't have billionaires to bail us out when we mess up our portfolio risk and a position goes against us. We can't go on TV and make attempts to manipulate millions to take our side of the trade. If we mess up as bad as they did, we're wiped out, have to start from scratch and are back to giving handjobs behind the dumpster at Wendy's.

Seriously. Motherf**k these people. I sincerely hope they suffer. We want to see the loss porn.

GME up 86% today to $143

I'll tell you...a fund with a long time horizon and a sticky, understanding client base could clean up here, shorting a basket of names.

But probably they'd have to pay a lot of interest to do so.

agip,

One of my former clients called this morning. his autistic son gets on Reddit and Robinhood, and is making a killing. All perfectly normal. ?

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

One of my former clients called this morning. his autistic son gets on Reddit and Robinhood, and is making a killing. All perfectly normal. ?

Igy

I don't where to start.

I'm not going to suggest where your former client should have been looking for stock picking advice, but how do we make this place more attractive to Reddit/Robinhood type investors that may be on the spectrum?

Could you maybe shoot him a link there Igy?

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

One of my former clients called this morning. his autistic son gets on Reddit and Robinhood, and is making a killing. All perfectly normal. ?

Igy

I don't where to start.

I'm not going to suggest where your former client should have been looking for stock picking advice, but how do we make this place more attractive to Reddit/Robinhood type investors that may be on the spectrum?

Could you maybe shoot him a link there Igy?

It's probably a joke. WSB members used to call themselves and other users autistic whenever they thought they found a golden goose - this is sort of a "tribute" to Michael Burry who is actually autistic and of course shorted the housing market and made a killing.

Somewhere along the lines it went from autistic to full blown retard. Honestly it's mostly just teenagers now and it used to be industry people working in various fields that thought they had a good opportunity.

Youth is wasted on the young, isn't it?

to me, this doesn't feel like a bubble

exuberant, sure, but not a real 1999 bubble.

The companies back then didn't have a business...it was just a dot com name and boom infinite valuation.

We don't have that.

We have a few crazy names, which the stock market always has, and then a mass of normality.

There's no class of stock that has divorced from reality.

Does a forward PE of 22, with every company on the planet exceeding estimates and an economy that will grow 6% this year...sound like a bubble?

Not ta this zoomer.

agip wrote:

to me, this doesn't feel like a bubble

exuberant, sure, but not a real 1999 bubble.

The companies back then didn't have a business...it was just a dot com name and boom infinite valuation.

We don't have that.

We have a few crazy names, which the stock market always has, and then a mass of normality.

There's no class of stock that has divorced from reality.

Does a forward PE of 22, with every company on the planet exceeding estimates and an economy that will grow 6% this year...sound like a bubble?

Not ta this zoomer.

You could have said that about 1999 though too. There were plenty of real companies making reasonable gains in addition to the absolute mania. I think a lot of this is partially driven by the fact that options trading is extremely prolific now and that has affects on the other side as banks and market makers attempt to hedge with shares

On 3/29/2019 the forward PE for 2020 S&P 500 non-GAAP estimated EPS was 15.47. So where do we end, more than double that. Forward PE is nothing more than a Wall Street metric guaranteed to always make the market appear attractive. I get it, to do anything different presents career risk.

Dr. Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I don't where to start.

I'm not going to suggest where your former client should have been looking for stock picking advice, but how do we make this place more attractive to Reddit/Robinhood type investors that may be on the spectrum?

Could you maybe shoot him a link there Igy?

It's probably a joke. WSB members used to call themselves and other users autistic whenever they thought they found a golden goose - this is sort of a "tribute" to Michael Burry who is actually autistic and of course shorted the housing market and made a killing.

Somewhere along the lines it went from autistic to full blown retard. Honestly it's mostly just teenagers now and it used to be industry people working in various fields that thought they had a good opportunity.

My post was not a joke. That was exactly how my former client presented the story, and why I posted the open letter to CNBC that was on Reddit. I found it interesting that both comments appeared today, along with the GME/Melvin news yesterday. Of course it is the sign of the times. The only thing debatable is whether it is healthy for markets over the long term.

well sure and if you avoided tech, 2000-2002 wasn't that bad.

Russell 2000 small cap index

2000: -4%

2001: +1%!

2002: -20%

2003: +45%

So you were never down much and then rocketed.

So is there something we have to avoid right now? If so, what?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On 3/29/2019 the forward PE for 2020 S&P 500 non-GAAP estimated EPS was 15.47. So where do we end, more than double that. Forward PE is nothing more than a Wall Street metric guaranteed to always make the market appear attractive. I get it, to do anything different presents career risk.

well Igy come on

we're in an obvious earning gulch here, during a pandemic,

and consensus has a historically strong economic growth number starting in 6 months.

You can poo-poo estimates but do you really think the end of the pandemic and trillions more of dollars won't juice the economy? really?

A forward PE of 22 when you expect the economy to grow 6% with near zero interest rates...is not all that exuberant, frankly.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On 3/29/2019 the forward PE for 2020 S&P 500 non-GAAP estimated EPS was 15.47. So where do we end, more than double that. Forward PE is nothing more than a Wall Street metric guaranteed to always make the market appear attractive. I get it, to do anything different presents career risk.

Gotta love hearing Igy calling out others for their wrong predictions. Where’s that irony guy when you need him?

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On 3/29/2019 the forward PE for 2020 S&P 500 non-GAAP estimated EPS was 15.47. So where do we end, more than double that. Forward PE is nothing more than a Wall Street metric guaranteed to always make the market appear attractive. I get it, to do anything different presents career risk.

well Igy come on

we're in an obvious earning gulch here, during a pandemic,

and consensus has a historically strong economic growth number starting in 6 months.

You can poo-poo estimates but do you really think the end of the pandemic and trillions more of dollars won't juice the economy? really?

A forward PE of 22 when you expect the economy to grow 6% with near zero interest rates...is not all that exuberant, frankly.

No different really than expalining away the $Trillions that made valuations seem like they don't matter. It is pretty clear there is a laundry list of factors that do not justify where the market is, or projections for 2021 or 2022. If someone believes differently fine, but the facts are this is one of the most expensive markets in history, period.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

well Igy come on

we're in an obvious earning gulch here, during a pandemic,

and consensus has a historically strong economic growth number starting in 6 months.

You can poo-poo estimates but do you really think the end of the pandemic and trillions more of dollars won't juice the economy? really?

A forward PE of 22 when you expect the economy to grow 6% with near zero interest rates...is not all that exuberant, frankly.

No different really than expalining away the $Trillions that made valuations seem like they don't matter. It is pretty clear there is a laundry list of factors that do not justify where the market is, or projections for 2021 or 2022. If someone believes differently fine, but the facts are this is one of the most expensive markets in history, period.

expensive to be missing out on it, too.