Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

well ok but GDP might rise 8% this year.

Is that even a worthy goal? Certainly pouring money into tens of thousands of lemonade stands is not an effective use of the nation’s resources.

What sort of clown says "meh" to 8% GDP growth.

You do know what GDP is, right?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

What was the market thinking on February 23rd of last year? I suppose Mr. Market missed the call to Jerome Powell. ?

The market was thinking forward. Thanks for asking.

Dr. Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Is that even a worthy goal? Certainly pouring money into tens of thousands of lemonade stands is not an effective use of the nation’s resources.

What sort of clown says "meh" to 8% GDP growth.

You do know what GDP is, right?

Do you understand that little of the 8% projection would be organic growth? It is stimulus plugging holes left by Covid.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Dr. Racket wrote:

What sort of clown says "meh" to 8% GDP growth.

You do know what GDP is, right?

Do you understand that little of the 8% projection would be organic growth? It is stimulus plugging holes left by Covid.

So what?

Einege numbers

1 month

BTC +74

Tesla +30

China +12

Financials +9

Emerging +7

Small Caps +7

Energy +7

Hussman +4

Developed non US +3

USA +3

Tech +2

TIPS 0

Gold -1

Inter Treas -1

Have to say I love seeing Hussman beating the markets on the up and down side. That dawg is having his day. Go Go Go.

Tech continues to lag, which has been interesting. Is it just waiting for the rest of the market to catch up to its early lead? Or is something else happening?

Emerging markets obvi doing well better than developed.

Here's 3 months

BTC +228%

TSLA +84

Energy +40

Financials +25

Small Caps +24

Emerging +19

China +18

Developed non-US +17

USA 11

Tech 7

Hussman 3

TIPS +1

Inter Treas -2

Gold -4

Energy and financials stand out, and tech still lags.

You can see how inflation expectations are rising quickly - the difference in return between straight treasuries vs TIPS is stark.

USA lags pretty heavily..if tech lags, so do the major US indices.

agip wrote:

Here's 3 months

BTC +228%

TSLA +84

Energy +40

Financials +25

Small Caps +24

Emerging +19

China +18

Developed non-US +17

USA 11

Tech 7

Hussman 3

TIPS +1

Inter Treas -2

Gold -4

Energy and financials stand out, and tech still lags.

You can see how inflation expectations are rising quickly - the difference in return between straight treasuries vs TIPS is stark.

USA lags pretty heavily..if tech lags, so do the major US indices.

Amazon is in an anti-trust lawsuit against the EU and the US - their stock hasn't budged in 6 months. Facebook is getting sued by just about every single state.

Tech gonna lag for a bit

This week I sold my amazon share - bought at the march lows. Have better places for it.

agip wrote:

Dr. Racket wrote:

Amazon is in an anti-trust lawsuit against the EU and the US - their stock hasn't budged in 6 months. Facebook is getting sued by just about every single state.

Tech gonna lag for a bit

This week I sold my amazon share - bought at the march lows. Have better places for it.

I think the conventional wisdom is that the soon to be surging economy will benefit more the economically sensitive stocks like small caps, money is rotating out of tech into those places.

Racket is a stronger believer than most in the anti-trust explanation for tech's lagging.

As for me...I've been trained over a long period of time not to be worried about anti-trust issues. They don't seem to lower shareholder value very much. They only sue massively profitable companies, so if they have to spin off a unit or whatnot, there's still plenty of growth, so the stocks do fine. Shareholders will do fine even if there is a strong government action.

agip,

Hussman latest comments below. Climbing faster in the Boise foothills. Ten miles, fastest mile 8:23 on downhill. Climbed about 800 feet, up rocky section. Get lazy and you’ll face plant.

Igy

agip,

General route I was on this morning. Started in fog, broke above at higher elevation. Some photos give a picture. Ran with the endocrinologist who diagnosed me three years ago Monday.

https://www.mtbproject.com/trail/597664/lower-hulls-gulch-trail

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1350248031594151936

If you’re going to post opinions instead of facts, can you at least post opinions from credible sources?

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

This week I sold my amazon share - bought at the march lows. Have better places for it.

I think the conventional wisdom is that the soon to be surging economy will benefit more the economically sensitive stocks like small caps, money is rotating out of tech into those places.

Racket is a stronger believer than most in the anti-trust explanation for tech's lagging.

As for me...I've been trained over a long period of time not to be worried about anti-trust issues. They don't seem to lower shareholder value very much. They only sue massively profitable companies, so if they have to spin off a unit or whatnot, there's still plenty of growth, so the stocks do fine. Shareholders will do fine even if there is a strong government action.

+1. My feelings exactly.

Also, easy as pie to see why emerging markets and China would benefit from the change in leadership in the WH together with a Dem. leadership change in the Senate.

My bet is that by now, if you haven't already positioned yourself for the short term bias towards small cap and emerging markets and underweight in tech, you are probably too late in that the bulk of the swing is over and one would have to time the reversal perfectly to make a bit on it, which would be pretty tough. In line with that thinking, for the time being, the little buying i am doing is in small cap and EM, and will wait to see tech gain some momentum before adding there.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

General route I was on this morning. Started in fog, broke above at higher elevation. Some photos give a picture. Ran with the endocrinologist who diagnosed me three years ago Monday.

https://www.mtbproject.com/trail/597664/lower-hulls-gulch-trail

Igy

It's been three years? You've been through a lot - runs in those places must be particularly appreciated by you.

Looks like a great place to run.

I had a down month after an anti-climatic attempt at a peak. Some covid issues around me forced me to skip the races I was pointing at when I was in great shape.

So I dropped mileage for a few weeks to take a bit of a break and started building back up this week. Have a race the first weekend of Feb on the calendar but I'm looking at March and April as key months.

Johannes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1350248031594151936

If you’re going to post opinions instead of facts, can you at least post opinions from credible sources?

Assets under management by Hussman have gone from almost $7 billion to $1 billion. Why did everyone jump ship?

"By September 2010, Hussman managed US$6.7 billion. However, between 2013 and 2017, he became increasingly bearish, asserting that the "quantitative easing" ("QE") and zero interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve had contributed to a “hypervalued market”,[23] Hussman's investment performance suffered as a result, and he was labeled a “permabear”. His performance during this period sharply lagged the S&P 500, in contrast to the years prior to 2013. By late-2017, assets under management had declined to US$1 billion. Hussman has regularly commented on his error during that period,[24] tracing it to his insistence on stress-testing his methods against Depression-era data following the global financial crisis, which led him to emphasize the importance of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions that had historically been reliable indications of market tops.[25] In late-2017, he gave up relying on those “speculative limits,” and lamented “Evidently, once interest rates hit zero, so did the collective IQ of Wall Street.”.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

This week I sold my amazon share - bought at the march lows. Have better places for it.

I think the conventional wisdom is that the soon to be surging economy will benefit more the economically sensitive stocks like small caps, money is rotating out of tech into those places.

Racket is a stronger believer than most in the anti-trust explanation for tech's lagging.

As for me...I've been trained over a long period of time not to be worried about anti-trust issues. They don't seem to lower shareholder value very much. They only sue massively profitable companies, so if they have to spin off a unit or whatnot, there's still plenty of growth, so the stocks do fine. Shareholders will do fine even if there is a strong government action.

I'm not sure really anymore. On one hand, the Dem trifecta in government would be an ideal setup to go after some of these companies and I think Facebook and Amazon deserve it.

But on the other hand, I don't think I want the government to go after some of America's biggest breadwinners when we should be going full blockade against China with the EU. Circle the wagons and whatnot. I think Biden will probably have a level hand on this and I doubt we'll see much trust-busting.

It really gets scarier everyday (thanks you boomers for selling the country out btw). China is close to cornering the market on rare earth metals now. We need some solid economic alliances with our friends in the EU

agip,

I was pretty scared three years ago, mostly of the unknown. I signed up for a race in August, had my entry refunded, I planned to do Carlsbad last March. I am hoping that we do begin to see a return to normal scheduling as the year progresses. I will travel some time this spring if necessary, since I am anxious to compete in a new age bracket. Focus is on volume currently. I should be able to handle 50 miles, perhaps more. We’ll see.

Igy

Sally,

My additional investment in his fund should help him get his assets back up. That and appreciation. You should join me and dump a dead dog Dow. ?

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

I was pretty scared three years ago, mostly of the unknown. I signed up for a race in August, had my entry refunded, I planned to do Carlsbad last March. I am hoping that we do begin to see a return to normal scheduling as the year progresses. I will travel some time this spring if necessary, since I am anxious to compete in a new age bracket. Focus is on volume currently. I should be able to handle 50 miles, perhaps more. We’ll see.

Igy

Fifty MPW would be really impressive. At the moment, i am about half that.

Kicking into a new age group does have a motivational benefit, for sure. Good luck with it.

I've started this year's 2 mile series i always do each year, and finding my times are a bit towards the slower end of my range but not falling off the cliff. so much has changed this year with a very different training approach in the age of covid, not to mention the constant effect of aging.

Glad to hear that it's going well and keep up the good work.