Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1334466857215123458

Lump.

I see some of you missed the memo.

Racket wrote:

Chinese companies dependent on copy-write and IP infringement about to be sh!t on finally

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/bill-forcing-chinese-firms-to-meet-us-accounting-standards-passes-congress-.html

Boomers really sold the soul of this country a few decades ago to boost their 401ks. Never mind the fact that it would sell out millions of Americans working in factories or allow our hard work and ingenuity to be so blatantly ripped off by an objectively non-democratic tyrant state. It's all about those juicy profits!

huh? are you being racketo-sarcastic here?

Making low-skill mfgring widgets is not a path to success for America.

But sure, we were too lax on intellectual property.

An aside...I just saw the 1976 movie Network...in which the fear was that congress was too lax in allowing 'arabs' to buy up US assets.

Then in the 80s it was Japan.

The 90s we were top of the world

then it was China

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lump.

I see some of you missed the memo.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/making-sense-of-soaring-stock-prices-by-robert-j-shiller-et-al-2020-11https://imgflip.com/i/4orzsz

I didn’t miss your memo, I just believe it is crunching of data to justify an outcome. The market is grossly overvalued on every historically reliable measure.

Maserati wrote:

Boy, really all over boomers today. As an X’er, I feel you, I have spent my whole life in their dark shadow.

But generations know not what they do, and that applies to most individuals as well, including maybe you and I, despite our best efforts.

You should listen to the Real Vision series with Neil Howe, I think you might like it. It’s on YT

Not sure what the Boomer slant is. My experience at Morgan Stanley was that the Boomers were the only ones that showed up to work on time.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I didn’t miss your memo, I just believe it is crunching of data to justify an outcome. The market is grossly overvalued on every historically reliable measure.

Yet crunching of data to justify an outcome is exactly what people like Hussman do. By reliable measure, have you done your own research to see just how reliable those measures are. By the way, Buffett disowned the eponymous metric some time ago, might have to do with this chart.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:I see some of you missed the memo.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/making-sense-of-soaring-stock-prices-by-robert-j-shiller-et-al-2020-11

Do you remember when I invented the I-E-SCAPE a couple / few years back (I think it stood for Idiot Edjusted Shiller CAPE)? He's done something like what I did. I don't remember exactly what I did, but this is what I got back then:

Based on my idiot-patented I-E-SCAPE index value back then (something late 2017?), of about 1.3, I'd be projecting something like 80% 10-year change. We shall see...

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I didn’t miss your memo, I just believe it is crunching of data to justify an outcome. The market is grossly overvalued on every historically reliable measure.

Yet crunching of data to justify an outcome is exactly what people like Hussman do. By reliable measure, have you done your own research to see just how reliable those measures are. By the way, Buffett disowned the eponymous metric some time ago, might have to do with this chart.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=yhg5

I’ll pass and let you be DGTD king of crunching data. The Fed has been totally unreliable at predicting anything. I’ll stick with Hussman.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:.

The Fed has been totally unreliable at predicting anything. I’ll stick with Hussman.

Oh, the irony!

90% hyperbole.

But I do think this whole charade with Chinese companies has gone on too long. They cook the ever living sh!t out of there books, they're all state owned, we're not allowed to audit them, and they've been stealing our IP for a long time...

But they can list on our exchange?

Someone let me know if it was similar with Japan in the 60s and 70s. My understanding was that they made small cheap things at the right place and right time

Maserati wrote:

Boy, really all over boomers today. As an X’er, I feel you, I have spent my whole life in their dark shadow.

But generations know not what they do, and that applies to most individuals as well, including maybe you and I, despite our best efforts.

You should listen to the Real Vision series with Neil Howe, I think you might like it. It’s on YT

Boomers are an easy convenient punching bag sometimes. It is interesting how a lot of economists are admitting globalization hurt Americans more than originally thought

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lump.

I see some of you missed the memo.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/making-sense-of-soaring-stock-prices-by-robert-j-shiller-et-al-2020-11https://imgflip.com/i/4orzsz

What's the tl;dr on this? I thought Shiller did home prices (which are sky high right now)

Stock prices are high because interest rates are basically at zero and every investor in the world wants a piece of our sweet juicy All American #1 In The World Now And Forever economy. Plus the Fed bought a ton bonds via QE. If you just sold a bunch of bonds, then you're probably not gonna buy back into bonds. Leaves one option really.

Racket wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Boy, really all over boomers today. As an X’er, I feel you, I have spent my whole life in their dark shadow.

But generations know not what they do, and that applies to most individuals as well, including maybe you and I, despite our best efforts.

You should listen to the Real Vision series with Neil Howe, I think you might like it. It’s on YT

Boomers are an easy convenient punching bag sometimes. It is interesting how a lot of economists are admitting globalization hurt Americans more than originally thought

Paul Krugman (NY Times), for one.

It was hoped that that early on, with the adoption of a more global stance, the US would take the challenge offered up by cheaper overseas labor and become more competitive, but they didn't.

Tesla. Paused for a charging but it's back and climbing..... Up over 5%.

Darn my simple investments are doing so well, I should've went harder.

BA +36%

CCL +65%

UAL +32%

Weren't these obvious winners? The moment a vaccine was announced these were gonna shoot up.

I onyl went about 5% NW into these though... kinda sad. Realistically I should've done at least 20%

Racket wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

I see some of you missed the memo.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/making-sense-of-soaring-stock-prices-by-robert-j-shiller-et-al-2020-11https://imgflip.com/i/4orzsz

What's the tl;dr on this? I thought Shiller did home prices (which are sky high right now)

Stock prices are high because interest rates are basically at zero and every investor in the world wants a piece of our sweet juicy All American #1 In The World Now And Forever economy. Plus the Fed bought a ton bonds via QE. If you just sold a bunch of bonds, then you're probably not gonna buy back into bonds. Leaves one option really.

Shiller CAPE was part of his Noble prize winning work from the mid-1990s. Also, know for Case-Shiller Index for residential real estate.

It is the belief that low interest rates boost asset values that matters. The Ten Year Treasury hit .318% on March 9, 2020 when the S&P 500 was at 2,746. So, the Ten Year yield is 65% higher, and yet the S&P 500 up half as much. A lot of good lower interest rates do the home buyer when the home price accelerates at faster pace. Same thing is going on in stocks, but the mass of investors think it doesn’t matter. That can be easily illustrated by looking at current PE is 40, and a PE of about 30 on March 9.

PE is not as important as you seem to think it is. Just look at the last decade-plus.

From Network, the rant about the 'arabs' taking over the country.

anyone still worried about the arab economic threat anymore?

90% hyperbole.

But I do think this whole charade with Chinese companies has gone on too long. They cook the ever living sh!t out of there books, they're all state owned, we're not allowed to audit them, and they've been stealing our IP for a long time...

Right. The Chinese cheat unlike the saintly Western Corporate Oligarchs.

Johannes wrote:

PE is not as important as you seem to think it is. Just look at the last decade-plus.

?