I wouldn't be one to speak intelligently about prospects in the banking sector.
Markets are up because Fed is demonstrating that they are wiling to do what they can, because of lack of other good investment opportunities, because the prospects for another stimulus package look fairly good in the not to far distant future albeit maybe not to the levels the Dems would like (i.e.: three tril.), and because it is starting to appear that a transition will actually transpire without the word coming to the end. Did i forget to mention promising vaccine developments?
As for a bias one way or the other, at these levels i am cautious, but i am already in over 100%. I'd say otherwise, I would be cautiously optomistic.
Down goes the Dow
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seattle prattle wrote:
I wouldn't be one to speak intelligently about prospects in the banking sector.
Markets are up because Fed is demonstrating that they are wiling to do what they can, because of lack of other good investment opportunities, because the prospects for another stimulus package look fairly good in the not to far distant future albeit maybe not to the levels the Dems would like (i.e.: three tril.), and because it is starting to appear that a transition will actually transpire without the word coming to the end. Did i forget to mention promising vaccine developments?
As for a bias one way or the other, at these levels i am cautious, but i am already in over 100%. I'd say otherwise, I would be cautiously optomistic.
Do you think that perhaps part of the reason the market is at all time highs is because there are many people like you who are leveraged beyond 100%? I was over 100% earlier this year when the market tanked, but I've since gotten that money out and paid it back after taking profits since I didn't think leaving it in further was worth the risk even though I actually have it interest free until May 2021. -
i don;t borrow money, but when i say i am in more than 100% i mean i have more market exposure than a direct 1:1 cash to equity ratio. I do that through leveraged ETFs. SPXL would be one example, in that it is a triple leveraged ETF tracking the daily movement of the S&P 500.
I dont think that is why we are at all time highs in that these vehicles have been around for almost ten years and I can't imagine they are being used any more now than they ever have.
As for the ATHs for the market, I guess institutional investors and retail alike just see this as an opportunity that availed itself due to the massive downturn earlier this year.
Probably options and their expiration periods have something to do with it, too, but that's not my area. -
PRD wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I wouldn't be one to speak intelligently about prospects in the banking sector.
Markets are up because Fed is demonstrating that they are wiling to do what they can, because of lack of other good investment opportunities, because the prospects for another stimulus package look fairly good in the not to far distant future albeit maybe not to the levels the Dems would like (i.e.: three tril.), and because it is starting to appear that a transition will actually transpire without the word coming to the end. Did i forget to mention promising vaccine developments?
As for a bias one way or the other, at these levels i am cautious, but i am already in over 100%. I'd say otherwise, I would be cautiously optomistic.
Do you think that perhaps part of the reason the market is at all time highs is because there are many people like you who are leveraged beyond 100%? I was over 100% earlier this year when the market tanked, but I've since gotten that money out and paid it back after taking profits since I didn't think leaving it in further was worth the risk even though I actually have it interest free until May 2021.
Leverage, thru ETFs, margin, and options can skew to both the upside and downside. You saw the negative implications in the spring. So, yes. -
I am getting destroyed again today. Tsla, pypl, and a few others offsetting, but not enough. Gold getting crushed, broken through key 1850 level
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Maserati wrote:
I am getting destroyed again today. Tsla, pypl, and a few others offsetting, but not enough. Gold getting crushed, broken through key 1850 level
ack
I saw gold cratering today and just took my gold position down to 4% of my portfolio.
Still much larger than 'normal' but seems to me the risk is ebbing.
US politics should resolve in the next 4 weeks
covid seems to be starting to drop
vaccines coming out in a month or two
not much war going on. -
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
There’s your buy signal, folks.
Remember HSGFX and XLE. This guy is big money.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. You’ll make money betting against this guy.
XLE up 31.66% in less than two months. What’s that annualized, Troll? -
I ama crappy investor, but I did sell a bunch before the March decline, then instead of my usual index funds, I went all in on stocks, mainly big tech, semis, financials, and strong manufacturers (not ge). I am up 120k on 275k...not bad as I usually just get basic 6-8% returns. With my luck, it crash again, but I don’t want a big ass tax bill, so hoping I can ride it Out for the 20% gains tax as I want to sell bad.
This market is mad. I thought financials would pick up but it’s been a slow slog. Insurance brokers have been a great win as they go down big during sell offs, but ya know what, everyone still needs insurance and the rising rates have offset all the bankruptcy’s. Aon, mmc, all amazing -
Break even for me. Xpeng going thru the roof, NIO and TESLA up.
Gold down.
Bitcoin started strong, trending down -
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
I am getting destroyed again today. Tsla, pypl, and a few others offsetting, but not enough. Gold getting crushed, broken through key 1850 level
ack
I saw gold cratering today and just took my gold position down to 4% of my portfolio.
Still much larger than 'normal' but seems to me the risk is ebbing.
US politics should resolve in the next 4 weeks
covid seems to be starting to drop
vaccines coming out in a month or two
not much war going on.
another thing on gold is bitcoin...there's talk of it taking $$ away from gold as a 'hide from central banker helicopter drops' sort of investment.
Certainly bitcoin has been doing well lately. -
jajjabbadooo wrote:
I ama crappy investor, but I did sell a bunch before the March decline, then instead of my usual index funds, I went all in on stocks, mainly big tech, semis, financials, and strong manufacturers (not ge). I am up 120k on 275k...not bad as I usually just get basic 6-8% returns. With my luck, it crash again, but I don’t want a big ass tax bill, so hoping I can ride it Out for the 20% gains tax as I want to sell bad.
This market is mad. I thought financials would pick up but it’s been a slow slog. Insurance brokers have been a great win as they go down big during sell offs, but ya know what, everyone still needs insurance and the rising rates have offset all the bankruptcy’s. Aon, mmc, all amazing
great job.
one of the best things anyone can do is admit they are bad investors. We all need to be humble in this - the market will, over and over, do what we expect it not to do. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:XLE up 31.66% in less than two months. ...
Have we turned you into a speculator in retirement Igy? -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
There’s your buy signal, folks.
Remember HSGFX and XLE. This guy is big money.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. You’ll make money betting against this guy.
XLE up 31.66% in less than two months. What’s that annualized, Troll?
Let’s play your usual game....
If you had bought XLE on May 15, 2018, you’d have lost more than 50% of your investment by now.
Now do you see how stupid your cherry picking sounds, Troll? -
Yup, that’s boss.
Now that question: what to do. Tempting to take profits now before CG rates get raised and/or markets drop, and reduce your overall liability via other vehicles.
Tough call, hopefully you have it figured out.
Still waiting for PYPL verification, had to send them a more recent utility bill. Some predicting a btc retracement to ~12k. Some pullback would be nice. DXY up a little bit -
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:XLE up 31.66% in less than two months. ...
Have we turned you into a speculator in retirement Igy?
Perhaps. If I was speculating I would sell the position. Mostly just flipping crap back at my obsessed Troll. -
seattle prattle wrote:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-valuations-not-mean-reverting-morning-brief-110134302.html
Of course advocated by those selling you their inventory. No different than a real estate agent telling you prices don’t matter. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-valuations-not-mean-reverting-morning-brief-110134302.html
Of course advocated by those selling you their inventory. No different than a real estate agent telling you prices don’t matter.
And so is that crap you keep posting. Check it out,. Their signature fund is their Global Macro Hedge Fund followed by their Long/Short Hedge Fund. Their investment policy as stated: "To put it bluntly, policy makers are in a pickle. In accommodating struggling enterprises at large by piling new debt onto them, they have traded off future organic growth for economic zombification."
And you are going to tell me that don't have anything to sell? At least what i posted is based on studying historical norms, unlike the less than rigorous assertions that frankly seem to lack the rigor of what i posted.
