agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
You don't know that stringent and long lasting lockdowns of businesses is coming and our economy will be in tatters in 2021?
How can you not?
because politicians don't believe there would be compliance with massive shutdowns.
take a gander at the wire houses' predictions for the 2021 economy. Your 'how could anyone think we aren't doomed' questions would be easily answered.
Lots of countervailing forces atm.
Barring an extraordinary external event (like the onset of a significant regional war with either oil or weapons support implications), I believe the narrative will continue to carry the day, defining the short term, for the reasons I gave earlier. They were akin to agip’s factors, and I believe in them insofar as they are useful for the narrative.
Market-damaging instability will take a while, IMO. I think things stay reasonably upbeat until midterm campaigning really kicks in—especially in the short term if D gets the senate. They will be in full control of the narrative, and the Fed will be kept in check.
I will be in for the short term, but remain very nimble. It will be like a fragile peace.