seattle prattle wrote:
The trouble with timing is this - watch a cycle. The down days will just kill you slowly grinding down. Then the upswing is massively fast.
I thought historically it was typically the opposite of this. Fast on the way down followed a slow recovery.
Yes, the old “escalator up, elevator down” saying.
My experience has been that timing markets is easy—this is the first time I have ever been decimated, even in the short-term.
The problem for me is that as I have aged, I have become more conservative. I have progressively gotten less and less from the market cycles I have times. This last one I exited perfectly, but only dribbled back in slowly. And each time, I have entered at a lower investment amount than before—so I capture less, and risk less.
I suppose that in a way, one could consider my current equities investments unimportant in my overall portfolio, the levels are so low, and the timing now far from optimal, maybe even bad. At THIS level, considering long- and short-term taxes as well, it is just as good for me to buy-and-hold, especially in tax-advantaged accounts.
Know thyself—or at least try. Maybe in 20 years, after many things have re-set, I might even buy some bonds.?
You know, there's some f'g statistic to support every belief ever conjured about the market, and if memory serves me correctly, there's one to the extent that if you miss the dozen most positive days of the market each year, you miss out on something like 80% of its yearly gain. Point being, trying to recapture the losses after selling is really hard.