Down goes the Dow

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Dow 30,000 August...... year 2030....

Rotten cherry picking ?!

Igy - I read this a few years ago. I know you have a Cayman. And this article was about how few of certain cars are sold worldwide. The number of Caymans sold worldwide at that time (maybe 2017) was like 1100. I found that really incredible.

3,500 Sold US in 2016.....

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Your investment:

https://www.ytdreturn.com/dow/

?

Dow is up about 400% since 2009. I will be cashing out in 20 years when the Dow is around 50,000.

Or, crying in 2030 at 28,500.....good luck though.

The trouble with timing is this - watch a cycle. The down days will just kill you slowly grinding down. Then the upswing is massively fast. Like overnight gap up that was just not accessible to individual investors. A big portion of the rebound that you had no way to capture, even if you had the foresight.

And how is diversification working for you, with mostly one sector accounting for all the appreciation in the indexes?

Honestly, i think the spectacular run up of tech was just investors capitulating on other sectors and buying it at any cost. In other words, they abandoned diversification as a losing strategy, regardless of how well it worked based on studies a lifetime, i mean 25 years, ago.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

Dow is up about 400% since 2009. I will be cashing out in 20 years when the Dow is around 50,000.

Or, crying in 2030 at 28,500.....good luck though.

It works that way, you know:

Diversication is working great for me. Again, the Nasdaq is up 600% and the S & P up 400% since 2009. And the tanking of the markets this March was another great investing opportunity. I think your main goal is to match the market. The market being all the main indices. It is really hard to beat the market and even harder if you are buying and selling to attempt to time the market. That is a losing proposition there. There is a crazy amount of research showing that those who keep getting in and out of the market never achieve the market returns of the indices they are trying to mimic. Again, I am not sure how old you are but if you are fairly young - go heavy on the index funds and maybe 20% on the "hot" stocks - and many of those hot stocks are already in those index funds. And buy and Forgeddaboutit! Watch on your stocks but your index funds - just allow them to appreciate over time.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Or, crying in 2030 at 28,500.....good luck though.

It works that way, you know:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000

Two clowns would never dictate my investing philosophy just a John Hussman (another clown) should not dictate yours.

Double the Dow in 2020, perhaps you should swap. ??

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance

I've got that angle covered in the work retirement funds, probably mostly because i don't have a lot of choice there.

But outside of that, i think you are talking about two different things- timing and diversification. Timing is hard, and these days i just try to use it to protect gains on the way down. But diversification, i think, depends a lot on how much time you want to invest in the endeavor. If someone is not willing to do their due diligence, i would recommend it by all means. But as for me, starting many years ago i saw the potential in certain companies long term and that has payed off well enough that don't need to worry about the downturns anymore, and that is precisely because they were very good picks (another words, not diversified).

And you say you just aim to match the market as a goal. I try for outperformance with the expectation of matching the market - or just slightly below that - as the bottom line on the downside.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Double the Dow in 2020, perhaps you should swap. ??

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance

Are you really going to make me do this? Sigh.

I will proceed slowly on this ...

Hussman's Strategic Growth Fund (your fave) is done 7% over the last 10 years.

Over the same time frame ...

The Nasdaq is up 600% and the S & P is up 400%.

Sooooo - would you rather be up NEGATIVE 7% or 400 to 600% over the last 10 years? Your call. I think most of us would NOT go with the Hussman fund.

Your Hussman fund has a Morninstar rating of 1 star (the lowest ever).

YTD "EARNINGS" OF negative 4%.

This fund is just too demoralizing - i will just link it ...

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Double the Dow in 2020, perhaps you should swap. ??

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance

Are you really going to make me do this? Sigh.

I will proceed slowly on this ...

Hussman's Strategic Growth Fund (your fave) is done 7% over the last 10 years.

Over the same time frame ...

The Nasdaq is up 600% and the S & P is up 400%.

Sooooo - would you rather be up NEGATIVE 7% or 400 to 600% over the last 10 years? Your call. I think most of us would NOT go with the Hussman fund.

Your Hussman fund has a Morninstar rating of 1 star (the lowest ever).

YTD "EARNINGS" OF negative 4%.

This fund is just too demoralizing - i will just link it ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSGFX/performance?p=HSGFX

Pssst...ask Igy how much HSGFX he personally owns. You’ll love his answer.

seattle prattle wrote:

The trouble with timing is this - watch a cycle. The down days will just kill you slowly grinding down. Then the upswing is massively fast.

I thought historically it was typically the opposite of this. Fast on the way down followed a slow recovery.

wondering wrote:I thought historically it was typically the opposite of this. Fast on the way down followed a slow recovery.

The recovery earlier this year was the fastest ever. Much like the drop was the fastest ever. For changes of similar magnitude anyway. If you were asleep at the switch on the 23 of March and left a bunch of money parked on the sidelines for a few weeks or couple of months, you would have missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

Let me reiterate: Both 538 and RCP have Ohio going for Biden.

agip wrote:

Let me reiterate: Both 538 and RCP have Ohio going for Biden.

oops. wrong thread.

USD strongest since July. Against the Euro anyway.

Mucking up my large bets on gold and emerging markets.

Tesla back on the move.

Up 3.74% in very early trading.

Still down 20% from peak a couple of weeks ago.

wondering wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

The trouble with timing is this - watch a cycle. The down days will just kill you slowly grinding down. Then the upswing is massively fast.

I thought historically it was typically the opposite of this. Fast on the way down followed a slow recovery.

Yes, the old “escalator up, elevator down” saying.

My experience has been that timing markets is easy—this is the first time I have ever been decimated, even in the short-term.

The problem for me is that as I have aged, I have become more conservative. I have progressively gotten less and less from the market cycles I have times. This last one I exited perfectly, but only dribbled back in slowly. And each time, I have entered at a lower investment amount than before—so I capture less, and risk less.

I suppose that in a way, one could consider my current equities investments unimportant in my overall portfolio, the levels are so low, and the timing now far from optimal, maybe even bad. At THIS level, considering long- and short-term taxes as well, it is just as good for me to buy-and-hold, especially in tax-advantaged accounts.

Know thyself—or at least try. Maybe in 20 years, after many things have re-set, I might even buy some bonds.?

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2020 (with 12 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 11 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 10 have reported a positive revenue surprise.

H/T @EarningsScout