One point, $Trillions saved your bacon, for now. No worries, perfectly normal, while earnings at 2009 levels.
One point, $Trillions saved your bacon, for now. No worries, perfectly normal, while earnings at 2009 levels.
“The fact that it has not only failed to follow the model you describe, but has instead spent years racing ahead, and continues to do so, might suggest a lack of clarity regarding prevailing market forces. And i dare say, at the risk of committing hyperbole, a failure to recognize the changing paradigm in light of the overwhelming evidence indicating otherwise might even be said to border on insanity.“
Certainly not the case for the small cap index you were so enamored with. Now what tells the real story the NASDAQ or Russell?
The 30-stock index finished the session at 26,616.71 on Jan 26, 2018.
Where did we close today Seattle? This is DGTD, or have you forgotten? Not much growth. Looks like the Fed $Trillions are flowing right to the NASDAQ bubble. Enjoy.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“The fact that it has not only failed to follow the model you describe, but has instead spent years racing ahead, and continues to do so, might suggest a lack of clarity regarding prevailing market forces. And i dare say, at the risk of committing hyperbole, a failure to recognize the changing paradigm in light of the overwhelming evidence indicating otherwise might even be said to border on insanity.“
Certainly not the case for the small cap index you were so enamored with. Now what tells the real story the NASDAQ or Russell?
Maybe you missed my post from 4th quarter of 2018. You remember, the big downturn. I sold the vast majority (almost all) my TNA (3x small cap index) and posted on here in January 2019 that i was buying back in as the market rebounded, but i was buying tech instead. In hindsight, the downturn worked to be my benefit and evaluating the relative outperformance of the tech sector, it worked out quite massively so, in fact.
And as for which one tells the real story, i shun such simplistic models. They both are real.
Many sectors in the market and at any given time in a market cycle, they will behave differently. My hunch back in early 2019 was that it was late in the market cycle and small caps usually lead on the rebound early stages, but larger cap take over in the later stages. I have always been predominantly tech as for the larger caps, and they were holding up better, so i moved into that.
I think small caps will come back really strong but it hasn't been good for them in the last two years or so, and the covid impact is headed in the wrong direction for the moment so they are receeding again. But things change fast.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The 30-stock index finished the session at 26,616.71 on Jan 26, 2018.
Where did we close today Seattle? This is DGTD, or have you forgotten? Not much growth. Looks like the Fed $Trillions are flowing right to the NASDAQ bubble. Enjoy.
Yeah, i have that index (DJI) on my watch list, but it's down there near the bottom. So thanks for the reference to their relative under-performance because otherwise i wouldn't have noticed it.
One man's bubble is another's cause for jubilation.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The 30-stock index finished the session at 26,616.71 on Jan 26, 2018.
Where did we close today Seattle? This is DGTD, or have you forgotten? Not much growth. Looks like the Fed $Trillions are flowing right to the NASDAQ bubble. Enjoy.
Yeah, i have that index (DJI) on my watch list, but it's down there near the bottom. So thanks for the reference to their relative under-performance because otherwise i wouldn't have noticed it.
One man's bubble is another's cause for jubilation.
You don’t get it. A few stocks are delivering all the performance. The Dow is down because it is a dollar weighted index, so neutralizing the tech influence. Exactly the opposite for NASDAQ. The BKX (banking index) performing like Russell 2000. Now if you believe that is a healthy market, OK.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Yeah, i have that index (DJI) on my watch list, but it's down there near the bottom. So thanks for the reference to their relative under-performance because otherwise i wouldn't have noticed it.
One man's bubble is another's cause for jubilation.
You don’t get it. A few stocks are delivering all the performance. The Dow is down because it is a dollar weighted index, so neutralizing the tech influence. Exactly the opposite for NASDAQ. The BKX (banking index) performing like Russell 2000. Now if you believe that is a healthy market, OK.
I get that and it is what it is. Banking is in tough shape since we have recessionary forces in play and probably will for quite some time, which also hurts small cap.
Hi! First off, I apologize for getting off topic but want to say, I’ve followed this thread for quite some time and have gotten valuable information. With that said, I have a question....when I hear...”take profits” what does that mean? And what are the consequences on paying taxes for that short period? Appreciate your responses.
Curious Georgina wrote:
Hi! First off, I apologize for getting off topic but want to say, I’ve followed this thread for quite some time and have gotten valuable information. With that said, I have a question....when I hear...”take profits” what does that mean? And what are the consequences on paying taxes for that short period? Appreciate your responses.
In a taxable account short term capital gains is 15%, long germ 10%, perhaps lower depending on your tax bracket. There is an old industry adage “you’ll never go broke taking a profit.”
2020 GAAP EPS is downgraded to $92.54. Using a generous multiple of 16 gives you S&P 500 fair value of 1,480.64 ( 92.54 x 16 = 1,480.64 ) well below my bet with “the idiot.” As the V-shaped recovery narrative looks more like fantasy expect further downgrades to EPS. Q1 GAAP EPS was $11.88 so $60 EPS seems reasonable for the full year, which would take fair to 960 ( $60 x 16 = $960 ). Some of you will scoff at that prospect, but this is all reasonable, and is the history of the market. So is the extreme valuation of the NASDAQ. You need excess, crashes to create opportunity.
I'm thinking of paring back pretty soon since that fits with my long term planning/goals.
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm thinking of paring back pretty soon since that fits with my long term planning/goals.
I'm in on MSFT, liking it so far
raquette wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm thinking of paring back pretty soon since that fits with my long term planning/goals.
I'm in on MSFT, liking it so far
Also, temporarily posting under this username since I got banned for calling someone's scientific credentials on another thread equivalent to that of an overripe banana.
Apparently you're allowed to spam dangerously retarded horsesh!t but you can't call them out on it! love this place
raquette wrote:
raquette wrote:
I'm in on MSFT, liking it so far
Also, temporarily posting under this username since I got banned for calling someone's scientific credentials on another thread equivalent to that of an overripe banana.
Apparently you're allowed to spam dangerously retarded horsesh!t but you can't call them out on it! love this place
ROFL. I saw the comment earlier today (and loved it!)
Problem is, there's an entire posey of them, each one dumber than the next.
Whatever. I've was banned to about a week ago, and not exactly sure what it was that did it since i was on a role, but a lot of us got booted at the same time.
Microsoft is a solid play in my book. I like that it missed the early run up of the other techs and only started getting bought up in the last 18 months, so maybe more room to move.
Another thing, there's some real and present danger for the likes of Amazon, Aaple, Facebook, among others due to the threat of adverse legislative actions, but i don't think MSFT is in the same camp. They had their trial by fire on the spit of anti competitive business practices years ago and that card has already been played.
We'll see.
Notice the threads are started by pretty the same person and they instantly blow up with people who can't wait to dog pile on the usual suspects like Allen53 or Bad Wigins. The threads drive up the clicks, which in turn drives revenue. It's no different than when jamin wouldn't stfu about his fake depression a few years ago, or the countless weird doping threads with hard line straight up racists, or, when in vogue, the train wreck that is the discussion of trans rights in sports. I digress.
MSFT is, as I've said, a great play. I also still really like Wal-mart and think this is gonna be their year to shine AND I think they'll start significantly cutting into Amazon's territory. In my opinion, Amazon has too many defensive battles right whether it's from the EU or Microsoft.
FB is having a real reckoning. I thought it would be a sure thing with the election coming up, but looks like the opposite has occurred and now they've got to manage the sh!t that makes them money. Apple is, well, Apple. They have tons of cash and a popular product. I'd be worried that they become a poster child for a sort of corporate traitor sentiment that seems to be growing. They do a lot of business and manufacturing in China and bipartisan support and angst against China is reaching like 1950s Cold War levels.
Finally, this has been making the rounds again. It's a good read if you haven't yet:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/22/economists-globalization-trade-paul-krugman-china/Good thing Igy is probably asleep. EU just announced a 1.8 trillion euro bailout via selling common debt
https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-leaders-close-in-on-coronavirus-recovery-plan-deal-11595274568
You have me scared now. Just read that whole article and enjoyed it. Will share some thoughts later but in the mean time the wife wants to sip wine on the porch of this perfect PNW evening.
Thx.
Krugman is the biggest fool living, so presumably he finds himself insufferable.
You arrogant little liberals are all the same. So puffed up. So full of yourselves.