Down goes the Dow

Cash on the sideline :-)

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cash on the sideline :-)

I’ve got some.

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

blew through 3117. What else you got?

This is nuts. Hedge funds were all caught wildly short during the pandemic and have been playing catchup since. It's a giant short squeeze, with Fed buying juicing it all along.

Amazing to say that the Fed admits is it buying ETFs. Just so crazy and wrong.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

blew through 3117. What else you got?

This is nuts. Hedge funds were all caught wildly short during the pandemic and have been playing catchup since. It's a giant short squeeze, with Fed buying juicing it all along.

Amazing to say that the Fed admits is it buying ETFs. Just so crazy and wrong.

Nasdaq is printing a TD 9 on the weekly and looking like a double top. I'd expect some mean reversion to the moving averages at minimum, but a violation of the parabolic advance (weekly close below the 200 week moving average) could see it go much lower. In fact the chart looks a lot like AMZN in 2000 before it completely rolled over from $110 to $5. Difference is this time there are so many poorly run and unprofitable "tech" companies (TSLA, UBER, GRUB) that retail (and funds fwiw) is just pouring money into in the hopes they will be the next AMZN. It won't end well unless the Fed continues to pump the market in perpetuity.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

Nope.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

blew through 3117. What else you got?

This is nuts. Hedge funds were all caught wildly short during the pandemic and have been playing catchup since. It's a giant short squeeze, with Fed buying juicing it all along.

Amazing to say that the Fed admits is it buying ETFs. Just so crazy and wrong.

Trends are zones, not hard lines, closed just above. Anyway, this is more important:

And this:

https://twitter.com/NovaNation92/status/1268278207452676100

If you believe this is hyperbole, look for yourself:

https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

blew through 3117. What else you got?

This is nuts. Hedge funds were all caught wildly short during the pandemic and have been playing catchup since. It's a giant short squeeze, with Fed buying juicing it all along.

Amazing to say that the Fed admits is it buying ETFs. Just so crazy and wrong.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, me too.

Major trend resistance at 3,117; megaphone pattern currently, and Fib 78% 3,136. Truly amazing rally, which was purchase for $Trillions, still economic fundamentals Depression-like. Rioting reflecting loss of jobs, a meaningful future, as well as racial/economic inequities. Historic.

blew through 3117. What else you got?

This is nuts.

Maybe, but not really. The Fed and the ECB injected mega-money into the system to prevent catastrophic deflation.

Where did you think all that money was gonna end up?

Good analysis. Technicals matter, as nothing fundamental supports this move. The totally unhinged rise is unstable and narrow.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Good analysis. Technicals matter,....

Igy, clearly you (and many others) believe this to be true, but have you ever attempted (or read) a good analysis comparing the expected outcomes for past times when certain signals appeared? I don't know if you'll remember but I tackled some of them a few years back and shared the results on here showing that the outcomes after the signals (that I considered) were statistically indistinguishable from outcomes in the absence of the signals. Which is why I personally liken technical analysis to alchemy ...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good analysis. Technicals matter, as nothing fundamental supports this move. The totally unhinged rise is unstable and narrow.

Thanks, TA becomes more important as the business cycle nears an end and ponzi financing increases as fundamentals erode as you say. History often rhymes, most will say this kind of collapse is impossible but I think the Fed is merely delaying the inevitable.

Between the Fed and Congress, the economy has been boosted to the tune of 50% of GDP. That’s got to be good for the markets.

demark wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good analysis. Technicals matter, as nothing fundamental supports this move. The totally unhinged rise is unstable and narrow.

Thanks, TA becomes more important as the business cycle nears an end and ponzi financing increases as fundamentals erode as you say. History often rhymes, most will say this kind of collapse is impossible but I think the Fed is merely delaying the inevitable.

https://i.imgur.com/FcIXa1y.png

the idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Good analysis. Technicals matter,....

Igy, clearly you (and many others) believe this to be true, but have you ever attempted (or read) a good analysis comparing the expected outcomes for past times when certain signals appeared? I don't know if you'll remember but I tackled some of them a few years back and shared the results on here showing that the outcomes after the signals (that I considered) were statistically indistinguishable from outcomes in the absence of the signals. Which is why I personally liken technical analysis to alchemy ...

As I said before, much of the programming for algos are on technicals. I would agree it is alchemy, but wouldn’t you as well agree the market could use some blood letting?