Down goes the Dow

Racket wrote:You can sidestep all you like, but the simple truth is that it is not possible for you to produce a demonstrably better estimate of what the market will do today, and you know that as well as I do. Or you should, if the PhD stuck.

I literally provided two such models. Did you not notice that? That's because you're in way over your head.[/quote]

Citing a mathematical concept is not a prediction. Until you show me what's what with a real prediction, demonstrably better than "mine" (which was a non-prediction), you're being a tiresome, passive-aggressive blowhard. With a phd.

the idiot wrote:

Racket wrote:You can sidestep all you like, but the simple truth is that it is not possible for you to produce a demonstrably better estimate of what the market will do today, and you know that as well as I do. Or you should, if the PhD stuck.

I literally provided two such models. Did you not notice that? That's because you're in way over your head.

Citing a mathematical concept is not a prediction. Until you show me what's what with a real prediction, demonstrably better than "mine" (which was a non-prediction), you're being a tiresome, passive-aggressive blowhard. With a phd.[/quote]

Passive aggressive? I certainly hope now. My attention was to be full blown aggressive so you'd stop peddling your snake oil.

A proper model would take significant time and effort to produce and that's the point. The theoretical frameworks for it are well established and I have no desire to reproduce it here. One could easily research base don key words I've provided.

You're insisting 2+2=5 because you rolled a pair of dice once. Then you claim victory since I don't have time or desire to rigorously define the real number line or the foundations of mathematical logic. Even if I did, you'd claim to be a constructionist or something dumb like that.

You're wrong, just accept it. You know how many times I've been wrong about stuff? A lot. It happens. Sometimes you get embarrassed. You learn from it and move on. If you really want to be better at your supposed day job then I will once again, for the 30th time, suggest you acquire even a passing knowledge of basic stochastic processes. Then we can talk Ito calculus , and then maybe we can talk about stochastic partial differential equations.

Until then you're an amateur. Know your place.

Racket wrote:A proper model would take significant time and effort to produce and that's the point. The theoretical frameworks for it are well established and I have no desire to reproduce it here.

If models could predict what the market was going to do, with any demonstrable skill, you would be using them, living high off the hog on the French Riviera.

The most interesting models I have seen (ones that have resonated with me) are those by Didier Sornette's Financial Crisis Observatory:

I'd read a couple of Sornette's books previously, and then several months ago Igy recommended his "Why Stock Markets Crash" which is a very interesting examination of financial bubbles. He claims to be able to forecast crashes. I've followed his site for several months watching to see if there's useful intelligence to be gained. So far I've found it very interesting but not particularly useful to me in a practical sense. Thanks again Igy, that was a very enjoyable read.

Of course, I am an idiot. An amateur one I suppose.

Cool, you mean like this guy?

No one has ever claimed you can construct a model with 100% predictive certainty. That's why I called them (for like the 40th time) stochastic processes, not deterministic ones. I really don't know why you're fighting this so much. This is not a pet theory, it is extremely well established and rigorously defined in the scientific community.

That's a really neat study...in sociology.

You know the thing I'm mad about the most today is that there's people who still seem to think their Jeep Wrangler sh!t box is worth more than a few box tops and a coke can.

FB marketplace has opened me to a whole new economic world

looked at FB marketplace, too much junk so far to feel inclined to spend much time there. Maybe there's a way to filter for just what would interest me?

Bought a little more tech ETF today thinking that the recent lag that it has had is just a little posturing and it will catch back up. Still some cash on the sidelines for me to put to work as things seem more stable.

Yesterday picked up a little more of our old friend TNA.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

the idiot wrote:

Igy, I think you're confused about the definition of a bear market? You can't wish it or imagine it to be so, it actually has to occur, with index values 20% below recent highs. At yesterday's close, SP500 is just a hair over 10% off all time highs. Maybe your perspective is divorced from reality?

You are wrong. It is still a Bear Market by definition.

But is it a bear market rally? It seems to be rather prolonged.

seattle prattle wrote:

looked at FB marketplace, too much junk so far to feel inclined to spend much time there. Maybe there's a way to filter for just what would interest me?

Bought a little more tech ETF today thinking that the recent lag that it has had is just a little posturing and it will catch back up. Still some cash on the sidelines for me to put to work as things seem more stable.

Yesterday picked up a little more of our old friend TNA.

Should be plenty of filter options there. At least on the desktop. Not sure about mobile.

3x ETFs, at a time like this, and on small businesses no less? Bold move

Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

looked at FB marketplace, too much junk so far to feel inclined to spend much time there. Maybe there's a way to filter for just what would interest me?

Bought a little more tech ETF today thinking that the recent lag that it has had is just a little posturing and it will catch back up. Still some cash on the sidelines for me to put to work as things seem more stable.

Yesterday picked up a little more of our old friend TNA.

Should be plenty of filter options there. At least on the desktop. Not sure about mobile.

3x ETFs, at a time like this, and on small businesses no less? Bold move

Two thoughts on 3x ETFs. First, using leverage allows me to make big moves in trading accounts, and leave our work 401Ks with less activity. Another words, i am allowed to move back and forth all i want and need in the trading account, but 401K retirement accounts limit number of transactions. So i use the leveraged ETF to make larger overall moves without having to fiddle with the retirement funds which limit the number of in and outs.

Second, i keep a close eye on how the triple leveraging equates relative to a non leveraged ETF of the same sector. As you have noted, holding one long term can work against the holder. Other times, it doesn't. And I have even seen it work to one's advantage in that the daily rebalancing actually increases its return relative to the non-leveraged ETF by more than 3 times. From my observation, the 3x leverage rebalancing really works against you when there is a lot of day to day up and down - like up a lot one day, down a lot the next, repeat. But, on the other hand, when the market moves in one direction like it has over the last two months, they sail along nicely with no loss due to daily rebalancing.

Truth be told, I could just use my cash to convert the 3x leveraged ETFs to unleveraged ones, except that there is hardly a reason. I will eventually. One reason, however minor, is that the unleveraged etf pays a dividend, and i am keeping an eye on hitting that date, too.

US stocks are 8% higher today than a year ago.

Despite the pandemic.

This makes no sense.

Do we challenge the market or accept that we can't outsmart it?

Geez,

In response to the comment about small cap risk, i know what you mean. I don't have a lot of exposure there. Mostly tech, which seems relatively safe by comparison.

agip wrote:

US stocks are 8% higher today than a year ago.

Despite the pandemic.

This makes no sense.

Do we challenge the market or accept that we can't outsmart it?

Geez,

Don't fight the trend. I could be wrong.

On a shorter time frame window, i see this as bullish that the slight retrenching of the last couple of says was not a big sell off. Largely it was met as another buying opp. I would have expected a big round of profit taking and positioning for the big drop, which just doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Racket wrote:That's a really neat study...in sociology.

You've just dismissed Sornette's financial institute with a shrug? That's quite a chip you've got on your shoulder. I'm quite confident his body of work stands well above yours.

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are wrong. It is still a Bear Market by definition.

But is it a bear market rally? It seems to be rather prolonged.

Actually most similar to Depression, Tech Bubble, and GFC.

Anyway, we will see how the market reacts to Q2 GAAP EPS under $10 and drastic reductions in Q3/Q4 EPS estimates and 2021 EPS estimates.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

US stocks are 8% higher today than a year ago.

Despite the pandemic.

This makes no sense.

Do we challenge the market or accept that we can't outsmart it?

Geez,

Don't fight the trend. I could be wrong.

On a shorter time frame window, i see this as bullish that the slight retrenching of the last couple of says was not a big sell off. Largely it was met as another buying opp. I would have expected a big round of profit taking and positioning for the big drop, which just doesn't seem to be in the cards.

interesting to think that public companies will use this to cut dead wood, write down things, make all the bad appear in 2Q, so their finanicals look better in 3Q and beyond.

Combine that with the idea that after a hurricane an area picks itself up pretty quickly and I guess that's the bull story.

I really don't like it.

the idiot wrote:

Racket wrote:That's a really neat study...in sociology.

You've just dismissed Sornette's financial institute with a shrug? That's quite a chip you've got on your shoulder. I'm quite confident his body of work stands well above yours.

Yeah that's not what I said but you're so goddamn wound up that you're hysterical now. Sit down and have a drink

agip wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Don't fight the trend. I could be wrong.

On a shorter time frame window, i see this as bullish that the slight retrenching of the last couple of says was not a big sell off. Largely it was met as another buying opp. I would have expected a big round of profit taking and positioning for the big drop, which just doesn't seem to be in the cards.

interesting to think that public companies will use this to cut dead wood, write down things, make all the bad appear in 2Q, so their finanicals look better in 3Q and beyond.

Combine that with the idea that after a hurricane an area picks itself up pretty quickly and I guess that's the bull story.

I really don't like it.

Hurricane is a bad analogy I think because it tends to destroy infrastructure and that costs a lot of money. In this case, the "infrastructure" feels like it's all still there (for now at least). No major bankruptcies aside from companies that, let's face it, were already doomed well before this ( like JC Penny or Pier 1). Companies will be anxious to turn profits when things fully re-open and I don't think it's unreasonable to think a lot people will get hired back or hired to other places. TBD of course

From the Russians, probably a fake chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF2F6.jpg?itok=4_V8wUF3

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

From the Russians, probably a fake chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF2F6.jpg?itok=4_V8wUF3

It’s a real chart; just meaningless.