THE VIX WAS AT 80 AND I DIDN'T BUY
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THE VIX WAS AT 80 AND I DIDN'T BUY
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agip wrote:THE VIX WAS AT 80 AND I DIDN'T BUY
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Have you been sitting on the sidelines this whole time?
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:THE VIX WAS AT 80 AND I DIDN'T BUY
*&^&*^%$$*())&%$$
Have you been sitting on the sidelines this whole time?
No
Rough allocations:
February: 67% stocks
April in the midst of the bear market: 56% stocks
Now: 60% stocks.
So I've made money in the bounceback but I did sell at some low prices (not at the bottom) and am sitting on a lot of cash.
I've been forcing myself to buy a little every day to reduce my cash hoard. .
But I feel the market is stupid high. So I don't want to buy too much.
Agip, likewise, been doing smallish buys the last few days and perhaps weeks.
Nvidia next up for earnings announcement tomorrow after market close. Bought a little more today in expectation of good news.
Cramer gave a synopsis of Carolyn Boroden's (The Fibonacci Queen) Fibonacci targets yesterday on Mad Money. Bottom line: The Nasdaq and Russell are trending up. The SP500 needs to break the 200d SMA (~3003) to be fully bullish.
That GMO forecast is just crazy... -3.6% annual return after inflation over the next 7 years for US large caps. Not gonna happen.
fisky wrote:
Cramer gave a synopsis of Carolyn Boroden's (The Fibonacci Queen) Fibonacci targets yesterday on Mad Money. Bottom line: The Nasdaq and Russell are trending up. The SP500 needs to break the 200d SMA (~3003) to be fully bullish.
That GMO forecast is just crazy... -3.6% annual return after inflation over the next 7 years for US large caps. Not gonna happen.
The nine year period of 3/2000 thru 3/2009 was annualized at -6.91%. Valuations, debt, and economic destruction now is arguably far worse. Why else the injections of $Trillions? Now one can argue that changes everything. I just don’t believe it.
Arguably far worse? You would undoubtedly lose that argument.
Try to pay attention to the big picture. It has nothing to do with you, Cramer, or your Twitter gods. That is, other than their complicity in the whole charade.
Johannes wrote:
Arguably far worse? You would undoubtedly lose that argument.
Try to pay attention to the big picture. It has nothing to do with you, Cramer, or your Twitter gods. That is, other than their complicity in the whole charade.
OK, let’s argue the topic.
1. Market Cap to GDP 140%
2. Highest level of corporate debt ever
3. 30% unemployment
4. Low bond yields point to slower growth going forward
What do you have, or are you Just blowing smoke out the rear again?
You can argue with yourself. It’s a waste of time either way. Do you really think any of this matters?
Talk about blowing smoke.
As I type this, the SP500 futures are down 17 prior to market open. I anticipate 3000+ intraday today. Yesterday's close was 2971, I think. Hopefully, it will close above 3000... wait and see.
At 3,000 and GAAP EPS of $95 the market would have a 31.57 PE.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
At 3,000 and GAAP EPS of $95 the market would have a 31.57 PE.
Igy come on
You know that PEs are backward looking and have to be taken with context.
The context here is a pandemic that shrunk the global economy. That pandemic is showing signs of ending. You know that markets will always look forward, over temporary earnings valleys. We've lived through that year after year since the financial crisis.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
fisky wrote:
Cramer gave a synopsis of Carolyn Boroden's (The Fibonacci Queen) Fibonacci targets yesterday on Mad Money. Bottom line: The Nasdaq and Russell are trending up. The SP500 needs to break the 200d SMA (~3003) to be fully bullish.
That GMO forecast is just crazy... -3.6% annual return after inflation over the next 7 years for US large caps. Not gonna happen.
The nine year period of 3/2000 thru 3/2009 was annualized at -6.91%. Valuations, debt, and economic destruction now is arguably far worse. Why else the injections of $Trillions? Now one can argue that changes everything. I just don’t believe it.
The trillions are the whole point. inject multiple trillions into an economy and that money will get to corporate coffers, making corporations more valuable.
Of course the US has to keep being able to borrow at these low rates for this to make sense.
agip,
I guess the market was wrong when it was forward looking 3/2000, 10/2007, and 2/2020:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1263453922703872002
Everyone was praising Buffett at market highs, but ignore him now.
Igy
Low interest rates reflect poor future growth. Massive corporate debt does not fuel growth only more financialization. So like a snake that eats it’s tail, ultimately destructive. Every economic crisis requires more stimulus to keep the game going, and the resulting GDP shrinks further. All the while the vast majority of Americans have less. There is an end point to the madness.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I guess the market was wrong when it was forward looking 3/2000, 10/2007, and 2/2020:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1263453922703872002Everyone was praising Buffett at market highs, but ignore him now.
Igy
Well the CAPE surely has been wrong for telling us to stay out of the markets for almost all of the last 30 years.
The nine year return 3/2000 thru 3/2009 would have said you are very wrong: -6.81% annualized, so would the 2/2020 high. So disagree.