Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Wondering how come Igy posts non-stop about the DOW going to 10,000 and housing will be slashed 40-60% (during a pandemic where prices already down 25-30%) and doing so with vengeful glee, is blaming someone? “

Show us where that is true. Let’s have the numbers, posts, and days. If not, shut up.

A sampling:

3/28 7:47

Ha, ha. You were the biggest cheerleaders for fantasy. You should be ashamed of your behavior. Instead you continue

3/28 9:36

It is very telling that you have wasted five years being wrong. You loser.

3/30 9:01 pm

Link about coronavirus sparking worst recession since WWII

3/30 12:06

Timing will be difficult. I would say 1,800 by summer, 1,100 by next spring 2021

3/31 6:47 pm

Link with "Deep recession, minimal recovery."

4/1 10:42 am:

Ha, ha, the market return since I first posted no better than bonds, and sure to go lower. You lost fool, and wasted five years posting nonsense.

4/1 12:29pm

It is all going down, small and large. New highs in ten years. Lows? Another 60% from here

4/1 4:20 pm

Posted a link of a guy in a phone booth with text: Don't check your small caps portfolio.

4/1 5:12 pm

AMZN and AAPL will lead the next decline in the market. “Generals are the last to die.

4/1 5:19 pm

The Irony is all your losing posts over the last five years. You ought to ashamed of yourself. But you’re such a worthless turd you try to continue. Eat it dude.

4/1 7:05 pm

Harassment was more than an accurate description: posting with my employer’s name, my wife’s name, my son’s name, my picture, stealing my handle, posting that I died...just a few. What kind of person does that? So, yes it makes me feel good. Payback is a bltch.

4/1 8:21 pm

Eat every market drop. I pointed out the obvious mistake you made. It is not different this time. Love to see your dopey self eat every post you made the past five years.

4/2 4:48 pm

“This is all wishful thinking. It’s all part of the delusion. It’s not going to be fine. Because it wasn’t fine before the crisis. We didn’t have a solid economy. We had a bubble. That’s the problem. And the bubble has been pricked. There is no way to go back to where we were. It’s like trying to unscramble an egg. It can’t be done.”

—Peter Schiff

4/2 5:15 pm

Link about mortgage crisis coming

4/3 12:19

Return to under 10,000 as well. Beau geste.

4/3 12:59

No, actually my statement is far more than an opinion, more reliable than anything you have posted, and is based on metrics that actual have a history.

4/3 7:34

Sowing fear,huh. Why don’t you man up and post with your usual handle to start? You chicken shlt.

Now post all the vicious and nasty comments aimed at GOI

One post on housing, and one on Dow 10,000. The rest is similar to what I have posted for five years. The problem is you and others never listened, so you lose. Not my fault.

Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.

Have a good life. Glad you are well positioned for the coming financial doomsday.

Long story short, Ghost, You’ve got balls. You’re a straight shooter. It’s OK if we don’t agree & honesty is a rare commodity nowadays. You’ve had to take it, why shouldn’t you dish it out?

I agree with Jesse in that Igy has every right and should express his contrarian views and so should whomever so chooses.

I applaud his forthrightness and full disclosure that he holds a shorting position in his portfolio and in the portfolio of some that he represents.

Lastly, regarding his admonitions he frequently unleashes on the longs of this site, i like the biblical ones the best (i.e.: sheep being led to the slaughter), but really enjoy the fire and brimstones ones the best. I think we got some of those when there was a reference to blowing the top off the market like a volcano. Those really light me up!

Keep 'em coming, big guy!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

When one questions “the cult of equities” it challenges their religion. Their impulse is to attack you from every angle possible, personal or otherwise.

Oh, the irony!

jesseriley wrote:

Long story short, Ghost, You’ve got balls. You’re a straight shooter. It’s OK if we don’t agree & honesty is a rare commodity nowadays. You’ve had to take it, why shouldn’t you dish it out?

Jesse,

There is one guy in particular that has dished out crap for years. Like Sally Vixx on the Trump thread. Was really nasty to me, Other than that person, I have no reason to wish anything untoward to others. I am not that type of person. On the other hand, the intellectual point that the market was excessively overvalued has been demonstrated by me at numerous junctures with responses generally along the line that this time was different, or that I was using outdated metrics. Now we have those same posters believing that there will be a V-shaped recovery with the lows in place. This view ignores the fact that the market price is still way above the earnings to be delivered in the coming years. Covid-19 just exasperated these distortions.

In support of your views on the Administration, Trump was complicit in driving equity valuations to extreme, and the Republican tax cut did nothing but pad the rich, and fuel more corporate buybacks. The Fed gets most of the blame for destroying price discovery for almost all assets. Distortions that will take years to resolve. We are in a very bad place in my view.

Igy

seattle prattle wrote:

I agree with Jesse in that Igy has every right and should express his contrarian views and so should whomever so chooses.

I applaud his forthrightness and full disclosure that he holds a shorting position in his portfolio and in the portfolio of some that he represents.

Lastly, regarding his admonitions he frequently unleashes on the longs of this site, i like the biblical ones the best (i.e.: sheep being led to the slaughter), but really enjoy the fire and brimstones ones the best. I think we got some of those when there was a reference to blowing the top off the market like a volcano. Those really light me up!

Keep 'em coming, big guy!

Seattle,

Like many of my generation we went the the Sunday ritual of church attendance, and Sunday School most weeks. I even attended a Lutheran elementary school for a period. Something must have stuck, although last time I was in a church was for a client’s funeral a dozen years ago.

Igy

can I post with a different handle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

One post on housing, and one on Dow 10,000. The rest is similar to what I have posted for five years. The problem is you and others never listened, so you lose. Not my fault.

Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.

Have a good life. Glad you are well positioned for the coming financial doomsday.

different handle guy,

But I really don’t view it that way. I don’t believe in a financial doomsday. Rather, this is cyclical, overvalued markets, speculation, drop, rebalance. Your view of my posts is more a reflection of your emotions, not mine. I am a professional in this space, as well as a student of the markets. Therefore, enjoy the banter of discussion, as long as the attacks stick to the intellectual rather than the personal.

Life is not so short that you shouldn’t have conviction in your beliefs. This is especially true when those beliefs can be backed up with facts.

Igy

If this were a financial segment in a journal or on television, this is where the author (Igy) would disclose they hold short positions.

I mean, really, is it 'Life is too short" or is it "Life is to short"?

You decide, but either way, there are financial interests and potential profits at stake.

I actually disclosed this position months ago, as well as others, which by the way is predominantly in CDs or money market. I also explained why I was so positioned. Little of this has anything to do with the intellectual arguments I have made, other than I eat my own cooking.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I actually disclosed this position months ago, as well as others, which by the way is predominantly in CDs or money market. I also explained why I was so positioned. Little of this has anything to do with the intellectual arguments I have made, other than I eat my own cooking.

Igy, I knew that (except the part about the cooking, thank you very much). It stuck in the back of my mind and that's why i asked for clarafication last night. I don't think, however, most people understood it for what it is nor caught it. And I wasn't sure exactly that it is largely a shorting vehicle until i brushed it off and dug in a bit more.

Thx.

The interesting aspect of the fund is the bond position. You will notice it hedges the downside when the market is up. In 2019 with the strong market the fund performed considerably better than a straight short fund. You find that on Morningstar, don’t quite recall the numbers.

Down -21% 2019, outperforming category by +9%:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psscx/performance

That bond position must be worth something, otherwise i would just tend to go with a straight ahead ETF that shorts the total stock market or shorts the SNP 500. Much cheaper, quicker to enter or exit.

But dramatically underperforming in a down market, +15% versus +40% in category. That is trade off though.

seattle prattle wrote:

That bond position must be worth something, otherwise i would just tend to go with a straight ahead ETF that shorts the total stock market or shorts the SNP 500. Much cheaper, quicker to enter or exit.

The question from the poster was other short ideas. I think this is a more prudent choice, for most, but would not recommend more than a 5% position.

Good to know. So your 20% equity position that you say you advise would seem to conflict with that holding. Do you get selective with stocks that you seem might outperform regardless of your bear market positioning? Don't feel that you have to answer, but it does make me wonder....