Alfie wrote:
Iggy, I share your pessimism. Any thoughts on when the bottom will be reached, this year, or 2021?
Timing will be difficult. I would say 1,800 by summer, 1,100 by next spring 2021.
Alfie wrote:
Iggy, I share your pessimism. Any thoughts on when the bottom will be reached, this year, or 2021?
Timing will be difficult. I would say 1,800 by summer, 1,100 by next spring 2021.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Alfie wrote:
Iggy, I share your pessimism. Any thoughts on when the bottom will be reached, this year, or 2021?
Timing will be difficult. I would say 1,800 by summer, 1,100 by next spring 2021.
Ludicrous.
Might have to read his book wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Timing will be difficult. I would say 1,800 by summer, 1,100 by next spring 2021.
Ludicrous.
Ludicrous is your belief we won’t get there.
I’m forced to concur (not that I’m an expert): summer & next spring should show the bottom.
Below the surface the economy was deteriorating before Covid-19 even while the markets were hitting highs. Speculation was driving everything. To believe that mentality returns with all the economic damage is a bridge too far in my view. Certainly even if you have a bullish view, it is not likely to turn on a dime.
I'm buying back in a little at this time.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Below the surface the economy was deteriorating before Covid-19 even while the markets were hitting highs. Speculation was driving everything. To believe that mentality returns with all the economic damage is a bridge too far in my view. Certainly even if you have a bullish view, it is not likely to turn on a dime.
Most economists are projecting that we will be very much rebounding before the end of 2020 and that this recession and bear market will be sharp and short-lived relative to previous ones. Even when panic was at it's highest recently, markets "only" fell by about 33%. Saying they will fall another 33%, something that has only happened ONCE in the last 100 years, is ludicrous. I fully support you in thinking whatever you want and following whatever plan you think is best, and more power to you if you prove everyone wrong, but I have not seen a single other prediction or projection anywhere on the internet even remotely close to yours. Doesn't mean you're wrong, but generally the intelligence and wisdom of the masses is higher than the individual with things like this.
seattle prattle wrote:I'm buying back in a little at this time.
I'm biding my time, keeping my powder dry. Which means the markets are guaranteed to continue going up. :-)
The crisis in the US is about to get a whole lot worse, as it will in other places around the world. I think the markets have to drop further in coming weeks and months.
Rallying strong into the close. Anyone joining me?
Wisdom of the masses? Where were all your experts a month ago?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334820-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-the-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-1Might have to read his book wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Below the surface the economy was deteriorating before Covid-19 even while the markets were hitting highs. Speculation was driving everything. To believe that mentality returns with all the economic damage is a bridge too far in my view. Certainly even if you have a bullish view, it is not likely to turn on a dime.
I fully support you in thinking whatever you want and following whatever plan you think is best, and more power to you if you prove everyone wrong, but I have not seen a single other prediction or projection anywhere on the internet even remotely close to yours.
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1244742672943808517seattle prattle wrote:
Rallying strong into the close. Anyone joining me?
“The problem for the U.S. equity asset class is that it began the downturn so overvalued at a record high valuation to sales,” Wood wrote to clients last week. “The other problem is that the leveraged share buyback game has ended, which also means an end to the phony earnings growth it produced.”
— Chris Wood, Jefferies
VIX continues to drop. People looking to buy in are getting pretty anxious.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/SP500-Earnings-BearMarket-Potential-031420.png
What is your motivation for years and years of posting on this site that the market is going to crash? Is it that you feel compelled to warn people?