Giles Corey wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Please try to keep up. The date point established by the poster was the January 2018 high.
Wow are you dumb. No offense and all
Oh, the irony!
Giles Corey wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Please try to keep up. The date point established by the poster was the January 2018 high.
Wow are you dumb. No offense and all
Oh, the irony!
Irony Mann wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Wow are you dumb. No offense and all
Oh, the irony!
The irony of the self proclaimed Irony Mann now knowing what irony is.
So.
What's going to happen next week?
A true rally?
Continued crash?
Quiet?
Nobody willing to guess?
Giles Corey wrote:
So.
What's going to happen next week?
A true rally?
Continued crash?
Quiet?
Nobody willing to guess?
A complete crash! Probably another 10-15% drop next week. This is the global debt bubble finally bursting - the Coronavirus is the convenient cover story to blame.
Let's tell it like it really is wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
So.
What's going to happen next week?
A true rally?
Continued crash?
Quiet?
Nobody willing to guess?
A complete crash! Probably another 10-15% drop next week. This is the global debt bubble finally bursting - the Coronavirus is the convenient cover story to blame.
Hope you are wrong but let's see. I am down to less than 2% in equities. Bought US T-bills paying barely 1%.
Global central bank coordination that is initially received positively then rolls over would be a sign that the bubble is deflating.
I think that the public health situation and associated security situation will be fragile for coming weeks and months as the young clusters of coronavirus grow, and the each country in turn finds its own way to manage the situation, with varying degrees of success. We will be travelling across an ocean tomorrow and I am packing extra for the possibility that travel back home may be restricted in the short term. In fact we are leaving earlier than needed to get ahead of growing travel restrictions.
What this will mean for markets is beyond me; I only expect that they will be more chaotic than usual for some time.
Yeah Igy and idiot, this is where the rubber hits the road.
Anything that rates or liquidity can fix is not real, it is conceptual. Neither have any primary effect on real things—they need to be translated to the real world by the faithful.
Rhe Fedvwill do what it can, but I doubt it will affect the markets in any meaningful way. Remember, it is about the narrative—more virus, less stocks, less probability of more Trump—which is precisely what is wanted by those delivering the narrative.
The question will be whether the financial world will secure itself within its own echo chamber, or be subject to outside influences. Can they maintain an echo chamber in this environment? IDK, I doubt it. I say it will be choppy as the narratives battle, and again I don’t see the real upside.
Bit since markets are effectively a closed little world, there will be some money to be made, like Friday—just not consistent enough for me to jump in.
Corona virus exposed the weak narrative that have supported markets. It is interesting how quickly the attitude toward risk has changed. Still I suspect that investor despondency, followed by disinterest is the next stage. You will see this tone in financial media, and online trading volumes. Bull markets are more fun than Bear markets. The only question is timing.
Partly agree, but the virus isn't a narrative. It's real. It needs to be stopped, contained immediately. Public health is more important than the market. Like this guy says:
Yes—what I was trying to say was that because sickness is real and Fed works on only the unreal, they will have to control narrative in order to convince investors, because their financial tools won’t do any good.
The markets can be remarkably ignorant and cloistered.
Gotcha. You do seem to have the pulse of the market Maserati. Your calls here sort of remind me of Marty Zweig.
In that you don't take unnecessary risk and also don't try to call the exact top and bottom. And are flexible not perma-bull or perma-bear.
Let's tell it like it really is wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
So.
What's going to happen next week?
A true rally?
Continued crash?
Quiet?
Nobody willing to guess?
A complete crash! Probably another 10-15% drop next week. This is the global debt bubble finally bursting - the Coronavirus is the convenient cover story to blame.
No reason for stocks to pop until at least 2q earnings season in April.
Probably will trade in a (wide) range between now and then but with a bias to drop another 5% to 8%.
I think a year from now there's a good chance we'll look back at the corona virus thing and realize the statistics that are freaking the world out...were not accurate.
mostly the '2% mortality rate.' I think we'll come to understand that that number was radically too high.
I'm saying 'good chance' on purpose. I'm not sure and no one is sure.
I mean if that 2% number is accurate, then sure, we're in some big trouble.
But if it's not, and the real number is not much higher than the flu, then this will fade pretty quickly. And there's good evidence that the 2% number is not based on science. Even the Chinese say that in healthy populations the mortality rate is 0.2%, about the same as the flu. It's only among the elderly and sick that the numbers get bad.
The breakout is already fading in China. We'll see what European and American stats show. They should be a bit more accurate. But with a disease that most people show no or mild symptoms...it's always going to be impossible to know how many people have it. And therefore we may never have an accurate mortality rate.
Yes, but therebis a long way, and much economic disruption, to go, between now and a year.
Some places may have leveled off or be on the decrease, but we don’t know because numbers are bogus. NA and EUR are also going to have shocks. A bunch of this reaction has just blown the froth off the top of the market, and not yet really made a meaningful dent in basic equity prices. That froth always looks for any reason to blow off, and it always finds one.
The only way it gets significantly deep is if there are margin calls, or credit problems. So far, I don’t think either of those have ever happened in any meaningful way, but maybe i’m wrong.
I do think that we will come out of this and see that the health effects were not insane. The economic effects won’t be insane either, IMO. Market effects we are seeing now, and so far are not insane.
It would be interesting to know the make-up of the selling. How much is from institutions and pension funds, retail investors, short-sellers, and from the IRA/retirement fund crowd?
I am sure someone has access to this info, just most of us don't know it.
Fact is, this downturn evolved at an absolute record breaking pace - last week, record highs, this week already in correction in all the major indices. That would suggest to me that we may have only seen the first round of selling. Like the big boys, the active retail crowd like us, and short-sellers. I really wonder what is going to happen when the working Joe's and Joette's start opening up their retirement fund statements at the first of the month or next month and realize how much time they just lost. One can only expect that these folks are going to slowly start pulling funds, and also be reluctant to invest any new funds for maybe another few months at least.
In my mind, this is a perfect storm. All that we know is the extent to which we don't know, both in severity and duration. And yes, markets hate uncertainty, so there's a propensity to liquidate during those times. The real answer is what most of us don't like hearing - you just have to wait and see. That said, for me that simply translates to a conversion into a degree of risk given expected timeframes, etc., which then translates into how much of my portfolio do i want exposed based on that level of perceived risk. And right now, i think that based on the rapid onset of the selling, we haven't seen all of the market participants weight in yet.
Next week will be positive week, albeit slightly, for at least two of the major indices.